2014–15 Australian region cyclone season

Seasonal forecasts

Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Niño conditions occurring during the season. The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10. At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.

In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2014, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year. Each forecast issued took into account the near El Niño conditions that had developed over the region and the El Niño episode that was expected to develop during the season. For the basin as a whole, they predicted that there was a 34% chance, that the season would be near its average of around 11 tropical cyclones. For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to the average of 7, with a 43% chance of an above-average cyclone season. TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelihood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.

For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 38% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 46% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia. The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season. The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W. They predicted that the region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average. The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.

An updated Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook was issued during February 2015, which suggested that near normal activity was still possible. The outlook took into account Tropical Cyclones Niko and Ola as well as the weak El Nino conditions, that were predicted to persist over the region. As a result, the update predicted that an additional six to eight named tropical cyclones would develop over the basin, which would bring the overall total to between eight and ten tropical cyclones. The update also predicted that at least four tropical cyclones would intensify into category three severe tropical cyclones, of which three could intensify and become either a category four or five severe tropical cyclones.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung

During 10 December a tropical low developed about 535 km (330 mi) to the north-east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The system had developed within a favourable environment for further development, with low to moderate vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow which was being enhanced by a trough of low pressure. Over the next day, the system gradually intensified/developed further, with atmospheric convection deepening near the centre of the system. TCWC Jakarta subsequently named the low Bakung during 11 December, as it was thought that the system had become a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian Scale. At the same time, TCWC Jakarta reported that Bakung had peaked with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 95 km/h (60 mph) before the JTWC initiated advisories on the system later that day and designated it Tropical Cyclone 03S.

During 12 December TCWC Jakarta reported that the system had weakened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, while the JTWC reported that the system had intensified slightly and reached its peak intensity with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h (40 mph). Early the next day as Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to move westwards, it moved out of the Australian region and into the South-West Indian Ocean. However, during that day the system's low-level circulation centre became exposed and displaced about 280 km (175 mi) from the deep convection. As a result, TCWC Jakarta and the JTWC issued their final warnings on the system, while RSMC La Reunion declared it to be a remnant low in their one and only warning on the system.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate

On 21 December TCWC Perth reported that Tropical Low 04U had developed within the monsoon trough to the southeast of Sumatra, Indonesia. Over the next few days, the system gradually developed further as it moved south-eastwards before it started to move towards the southwest and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during 23 December. Early the next day, it intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, as BOM named the system Kate. The next day, Kate continued to intensify as an eye developed and reached peak intensity as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone as. On 27 December, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. On 30 December, TCWC Perth reported that Kate had moved out of the Australian region and into the South-west Indian Ocean basin.

Tropical Low 05U

On 2 January TCWC Perth and Darwin started to monitor Tropical Low 05U, that had developed within the monsoon trough near Wyndham in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Over the next few days, the low moved slowly westwards and was forecast to possibly move over open water and develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low 07U

On 10 January, the BoM started to monitor a tropical low south of the Solomon Islands

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam

On 13 February, the BoM started to monitor a weak tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Carpentaria. During the next few days, the disturbance gradually developed and as it was located 200 kilometres (120 mi) northwest of Weipa, Queensland on 16 February. On 19 February and due to a developing, clear eye, the JTWC upgraded Lam to a Category 2 while the BoM upgraded it to a Category 4.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia

On 16 February, the BoM started to monitor a weak tropical disturbance in the Coral Sea. It developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on 18 February and was named Marcia. It was upgraded to Category 2 the following day when it was approximately 555 kilometres (345 mi) north of Bundaberg and again upgraded to Category 3 severe tropical cyclone when approximately 290 kilometres (180 mi) north of Yeppoon. On 19 February and due to a developing, clear eye, the JTWC upgraded Marcia to a Category 2 whilst the BoM upgraded it as a Category 4. Due to explosive intensification, Marcia became a Category 5 according to the BoM early on 20 February.

The boat of two fishermen traveling to Fraser Island sank due to rough seas on the morning of 19 February, however, they were found safe and well on nearby Moon Boom Island the next morning. The storm wrought extensive damage in Queensland, with losses amounting to A$750 million (US$590.5 million).

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn

On 8 March, the BoM started to monitor a weak tropical low over Western Australia. The system was later designated as 16U a few days later. Due to an increase in convection, both the BoM and JTWC upgraded the system to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Olwyn on 11 March. Just before 12 March, Olwyn rapidly developed a ragged eye, as the BoM upgraded the system to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. Early on 13 March, Olwyn reached its peak strength as the JTWC classified it as a Category 2 cyclone. However, JTWC downgraded it to a Category 1 cyclone after a few hours. Late on the same day, Olwyn made landfall over southwestern Australia.

Olwyn caused extensive damage along the coast of Western Australia, from Onslow to Kalbarri. In preparation for the storm, the Pilbara Ports authority closed the ports of Dampier and Ashburton. The entire workforce on Barrow Island was evacuated to the island's cyclone shelter. 128 km/h (80 mph) wind gusts and 141.6 mm (5.57 in) of rain was recorded on the island as it was brushed by Olwyn. Upon landfall, a maximum wind gust of 180 km/h (110 mph) was recorded at Learmonth. Moderate property damage occurred at nearby Exmouth, with several houses being inundated with floodwater after 141.8 mm (5.58 in) of rain fell in 24 hours. Trees were uprooted and power was cut for several days. The Exmouth Yacht Club sustained heavy damage from Olwyn's storm surge. Damage was more severe further south at Carnarvon where most houses are not built to cyclone standards, unlike in Exmouth. Olwyn passed over the town at category 3 status, unroofing and severely damaging multiple houses, while many sheds and outbuildings were totally destroyed. The town's water and power facilities were damaged, leaving the area without water and electricity supplies for days. The entire banana crop in the Carnarvon area was destroyed by the storm's high winds and flooding. The Gascoyne River experienced its most severe flood since 2010 due to rains from Olwyn. One person sustained life-threatening injuries in a storm-related car accident. Total damage in Carnarvon was estimated to be in excess of A$100 million (US$76.1 million), and Olwyn has been noted as the most severe cyclone to have hit the town since 1950.

A total of 121.8 mm (4.80 in) of rain fell in 24 hours at Shark Bay from Olwyn, setting a record for the highest amount of rainfall recorded in March at what is normally the most arid place on the Australian coast. Minor property and tree damage occurred in Denham. Further south, 8 mm (0.31 in) of rain and 76 km/h (47 mph) wind gusts were reported in Geraldton. The remnant low of Olwyn caused 15 mm (0.59 in) - 25 mm (0.98 in) of rain across the wheat belt, which was beneficial for farmers in the area. Perth recorded 12.8 mm (0.50 in) of rain and cooler temperatures as Olwyn's remnants moved into the Southern Ocean. On 15 March Olwyn's remnants brought severe storms to the Southern Western Australia. Olwyn was the first ex-tropical cyclone to hit Geraldton, Jurien Bay, Wheatbelt and Perth since Cyclone Iggy in 2012.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan

Shortly after Cyclone Pam was classified, the outer rainbands of Pam led to the formation of a tropical low near Australia on 9 March. Later that day, the BoM designated the system as 17U and intensified into Tropical Cyclone Nathan several hours later. It slowly executed a cyclonic loop over the next few days, moving across Arnhem Land. After intensifying to an initial peak intensity of 165 km/h (105 mph), Nathan weakened while crossing the Cape York Peninsula and reintensified over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The remnants of Nathan brought 106.0mm of rainfall to Onslow, Western Australia on 30 March. Cyclone Nathan hit the Arnhem Land one month after Cyclone Lam.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola

On 6 April, the BoM had reported that Ikola had entered the basin as a severe tropical cyclone and was designated as 19U. Ikola rapidly weakened to become a trough system, bringing heavy rainfall to the southwestern parts of Western Australia and severe storms to the southeast of Western Australia. Ikola soaked Central Western Australia and affected Perth from 6–12 April. Ikola was also the first cyclone to move into the Australian basin from the Southwest Indian Ocean basin since Cyclone Alenga in the 2011-12 season.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang

On 27 April, the BoM started to monitor a tropical low over Western Australia. Later that day, the system gradually intensified as it was designated as 21U. The next day, 21U intensified into Tropical Cyclone Quang. Quang hit the Exmouth coast on the night of 1 May and quickly weakened to a tropical low after it hit Exmouth. Quang did minimal damage to Exmouth, Western Australia. The name Quang was retired and replaced with the name Quincey.

Tropical Cyclone Raquel

Late on 30 June, Tropical Depression 17F moved into the Australian region from the South Pacific and intensified into Tropical Cyclone Raquel. After drifting for the next two days, it exited the basin, moving back into the South Pacific. However, Raquel re-entered the basin early on 4 July. The next day, Raquel was declared a remnant low.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it is the only known instance of a tropical cyclone during July in the region since the satellite era began (since at least 1970). As a byproduct of becoming a tropical cyclone on the first day of the new cyclone year, it marked the earliest start to a season in the basin on record.

Other systems

On 3 December TCWC Perth reported that Tropical Low 01U had developed over open water to the southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands, after various applications of the Dvorak technique had produced results between T2.0 and T3.0. They also reported that the low could develop into a tropical cyclone during the following six to twelve hours, however, TCWC Perth issued its final advisory on the system during the next day as the system was not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone and had started weakening. On 13 December TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed, to the south of the Indonesian island of Java. Conditions surrounding the system were unfavourable for further development over the next few days, however, TCWC Perth thought that there was a small chance that conditions could improve. Over the next few days, the system moved south-westwards, before it was last noted on 15 December, as it was not expected to develop further. On 10 January, TCWC Brisbane reported that Tropical Low 06U had developed within the monsoon trough, within an unfavorable environment for further development to the northeast of Queensland. Over the next couple of days, the system moved southeastwards and may have influenced the track of Tropical Low 07U, before it was last noted during 13 January.

During 17 January, a tropical low that had been monitored by the BoM for a few days, moved into the Northern Kimberley region from the Northern Territory. Over the next couple of days, the system moved south-westwards over land before it moved offshore and into the Indian Ocean near Broome during 19 January. As computer models were predicting conditions surrounding the low to be marginally favourable for further development, TCWC Perth expected the system to develop into a tropical cyclone and issued tropical cyclone advice for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Exmouth. However, as the system spent more time over land than had been forecasted and vertical wind shear did not weaken as much as forecasted. As a result, the system failed to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moved south-westwards towards the Pilbara coast before it dissipated near Port Headland during 20 January.

On 13 February, a tropical low developed roughly 700 km (430 mi) southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The BoM stopped warning on it late on 16 February as it moved in a southerly direction.

Season effects

Four cyclone names were replaced in an update in October 2016: Lam, Marcia, Olwyn and Quang. Of the four names, only Lam, Marcia and Quang have so far been confirmed retired.