Pairwise error probability is the error probability that for a transmitted signal (                    X                ) its corresponding but distorted version (                                                        X              ^                                              ) will be received. This type of probability is called ″pair-wise error probability″ because the probability exists with a pair of signal vectors in a signal constellation. It's mainly used in communication systems.
In general, the received signal is a distorted version of the transmitted signal. Thus, we introduce the symbol error probability, which is the probability                     P        (        e        )                 that the demodulator will make a wrong estimation                     (                                            X              ^                                      )                 of the transmitted symbol                     (        X        )                 based on the received symbol, which is defined as follows:
                    P        (        e        )        ≜                              1            M                                    ∑                      x                                    P                (        X        ≠                                            X              ^                                                |                X        )                where M is the size of signal constellation.
The pairwise error probability                     P        (        X        →                                            X              ^                                      )                 is defined as the probability that, when                     X                 is transmitted,                                                         X              ^                                               is received.
                    P        (        e                  |                X        )                 can be expressed as the probability that at least one 
                                                        X              ^                                      ≠        X                 is closer than 
                    X                 to 
                    Y                .
Using the upper bound to the probability of a union of events, it can be written:
                    P        (        e                  |                X        )        ≤                  ∑                                                                      X                  ^                                                      ≠            X                          P        (        X        →                                            X              ^                                      )                Finally:
                    P        (        e        )        =                                            1              M                                                ∑                      X            ∈            S                          P        (        e                  |                X        )        ≤                                            1              M                                                ∑                      X            ∈            S                                    ∑                                                                      X                  ^                                                      ≠            X                          P        (        X        →                                            X              ^                                      )                For the simple case of the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel:
                    Y        =        X        +        Z        ,                  Z                      i                          ∼                              N                          (        0        ,                                                            N                                  0                                            2                                                I                      n                          )                                The PEP can be computed in closed form as follows:
                                                                        P                (                X                →                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                                                            =                                  P                                (                                  |                                                  |                                Y                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                                        |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  <                                  |                                                  |                                Y                −                X                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                                    |                                X                )                                                                                                  =                                  P                                (                                  |                                                  |                                (                X                +                Z                )                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                                        |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  <                                  |                                                  |                                (                X                +                Z                )                −                X                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  )                                                                                                  =                                  P                                (                                  |                                                  |                                (                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                +                Z                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  <                                  |                                                  |                                Z                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  )                                                                                                  =                                  P                                (                                  |                                                  |                                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                                        |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  +                                  |                                                  |                                Z                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  +                2                (                Z                ,                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                <                                  |                                                  |                                Z                                  |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  )                                                                                                  =                                  P                                (                2                (                Z                ,                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                <                −                                  |                                                  |                                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                                        |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                  )                                                                                                  =                                  P                                (                (                Z                ,                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                <                −                                  |                                                  |                                X                −                                                                            X                      ^                                                                                        |                                                                      |                                                        2                                                                    /                                2                )                                                                                (        Z        ,        X        −                                            X              ^                                      )                 is a Gaussian random variable with mean 0 and variance                               N                      0                                    |                          |                X        −                                            X              ^                                                |                                      |                                2                                    /                2                .
For a zero mean, variance                               σ                      2                          =        1                 Gaussian random variable:
                    P        (        X        >        x        )        =        Q        (        x        )        =                              1                          2              π                                                ∫                      x                                +            ∞                                    e                      −                                                                              t                                  2                                            2                                      d        t                Hence,
                                                                        P                (                X                →                                                                            X                      ^                                                                      )                                                            =                Q                                                      (                                                                                                                                                                                                                          |                                                                                      |                                                        X                            −                                                                                                                            X                                  ^                                                                                                                                                    |                                                                                                                      |                                                                                            2                                                                                                              2                                                                                                                                                                                                                N                                                                  0                                                                                                                            |                                                                                            |                                                            X                              −                                                                                                                                    X                                    ^                                                                                                                                                              |                                                                                                                              |                                                                                                  2                                                                                                                      2                                                                                                                                                                                    )                                                  =                Q                                                      (                                                                                                                                                                |                                                                          |                                                X                        −                                                                                                            X                              ^                                                                                                                                |                                                                                                      |                                                                                2                                                                                              2                                                                      .                                                                                                    2                                                                              N                                                          0                                                                                                            |                                                                                |                                                    X                          −                                                                                                                    X                                ^                                                                                                                                          |                                                                                                              |                                                                                      2                                                                                                                                                                                                                )                                                                                                                                    =                Q                                                      (                                                                                                                                                                |                                                                          |                                                X                        −                                                                                                            X                              ^                                                                                                                                |                                                                          |                                                                                            2                                                  N                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                                    )