Ayr (Scottish Parliament constituency)

Electoral region

The other eight constituencies of the South Scotland region are Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley; Clydesdale; Dumfriesshire; East Lothian; Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire; Galloway and West Dumfries; Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale. The region covers the Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire council areas in full and elements of the East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire council areas.

1999-2011

The Ayr constituency was created at the same time as the Scottish Parliament, in 1999, following the same boundaries as the existing Ayr constituency at Westminster. In 2005 however most UK Parliamentary constituencies in Scotland were replaced with new constituencies, with the Ayr constituency being abolished and replaced by the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Central Ayrshire constituencies. This had no impact on the boundaries of the Ayr constituency in the Scottish Parliament which used the old Westminster boundaries during the 2007 election to the Scottish Parliament.

The constituency covered the 1995 South Ayrshire electoral wards of:

The remaining section of South Ayrshire was covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

2011-

Following the First Periodic Review of Scottish Parliament Boundaries in time for the 2011 Scottish Parliament election the Boundary Commission for Scotland recommended alterations to the existing Ayr constituency which were then implemented and used at the 2011 and 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections. These boundaries remain in place today and will be used at the next election to the Scottish Parliament.

The review suggested that the Ayr constituency take in the electoral wards of:

All remaining wards in South Ayrshire form part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Constituency profile

The Ayr constituency covers a thin stretch of land situated along the north-west coast of South Ayrshire, taking in the adjoining coastal towns of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon. The constituency is a popular coastal resort on Scotland's west coast. The town of Ayr serves as the administrative centre of the South Ayrshire Council area and is the most populated section of the constituency. The town annually hosts the Scottish Grand National horse-racing steeplechase and the Scottish Airshow. Towards the south of the town is Robert Burns Cottage in the suburb of Alloway. In Prestwick and Troon, the exclusive Royal Troon and Prestwick Golf Clubs regularly host the British Open Championship. The seat also takes in Glasgow Prestwick International Airport.

The constituency covers a diverse and muddled mix of wealthy middle class suburbs and deprived council estates, divided between suburban housing based around parts of Prestwick, Troon and the south of Ayr and social housing based around the industrial north of Ayr. Although the constituency is prosperous, it is also littered with pockets of deprivation, with data derived from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation indicating that 27% of the seat's populous reside in the 30% most deprived datazones in Scotland whilst 42% reside in the 30% most affluent datazones in Scotland. Demographically, the constituency has a high percentage of elderly voters, Church of Scotland Protestants and home-owners, with a higher percentage of outright home-owners compared to the national average. According to census data, 29.7% of the seat's population are aged 60 and over (compared to the Scottish national figure of 23.2%), 42.7% of residents are Church of Scotland Protestant (over 10% greater than the Scottish average) and 63.8% reside in owned "whole houses or bungalows", with 26.3% residing in owned outright "whole houses or bungalows" (comparing to the Scottish national figures of 54.3% and 20.2% respectively). At the 2011 census the unemployment rate in the constituency was registered as 4.9%, the same as the Scottish national average.

Voting patterns

Historically the Ayr seat has held a higher level of support for the Conservative Party in comparison to elsewhere in Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole. The equivalent Westminster constituency of Ayr was gained by the Conservative Party at its creation in 1950. In subsequent elections the seat went onto return Conservative MP's to Parliament until the 1997 UK general election, when the boundaries of the constituency were altered in a move involving the transfer of a number of Conservative-voting suburbs towards the south of Ayr to the adjoining Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency which subsequently altered the demographics of the Ayr constituency - benefiting the Labour Party. In spite of this at the 1997 election the Ayr seat returned one of the smallest pro-Labour swings in Great Britain at just over 5%. Prior to this the Ayr Burghs constituency (which incorporated a number of towns in coastal Ayrshire including Irvine, Troon, Prestwick, Ayr, Saltcoats and Ardrossan) continuously returned Conservative MP's to Parliament from 1906 until it's abolishment in 1950, making Ayr the longest seat to be held continuously by the Conservatives in Scotland (continuously having a Conservative MP at Westminster for 91 years). Ayr has been represented by a Conservative MP or MSP for a total of approximately 120 years - the longest of any constituency in Scotland.

At the 2003 South Ayrshire council election the Conservative Party's support in Ayr was largely concentrated in affluent suburban areas located to the south of Ayr and around Prestwick and Troon, primarily contained within the suburbs of Doonfoot, Seafield, Alloway, Ayr Fort, St Leonard's, north Belmont, Masonhill, Holmston and Castlehill in the town of Ayr; Barassie, Muirhead and south Troon in Troon and in north, west and central Prestwick. The Labour Party have traditionally found success in the more deprived parts of the constituency, winning in council estates such as Kincaidston, Forehill, Marchburn and Prestwick Toll, throughout north Ayr and in west Troon at the 2003 local council election.

Until the late 2000s the Labour Party held a significant level of support across the Ayr constituency and were able to win the constituency by 25 votes at the 1999 Scottish Parliamentary election as a consequence of a high turnout and the constituency's boundaries, which excluded various Conservative-voting suburbs in southern Ayr (including Alloway, Doonfoot, Masonhill, Holmston and Castlehill). Labour's decline in support in the Scottish Parliament coupled with a lower turnout allowed for the Conservatives to secure the constituency comfortably at the 2000 Ayr by-election following the resignation of Ayr's first MSP, Ian Welsh. The by-election was the first by-election of the Scottish Parliament, making Ayr the first Scottish Conservative constituency seat in the Scottish Parliament (who won no constituency seats at the 1999 Scottish Parliament election). The Conservatives went onto hold the constituency at the 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, despite marginally missing out in the Westminster seat of Ayr to the Labour Party at the 2001 UK general election. In 2011 the constituency boundaries were altered, with the electoral ward of Kyle being transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency. At the same time the remaining portion of the town of Ayr covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency was transferred over to the Ayr constituency. The Ayr constituency went onto return Conservative MSP John Scott to Parliament with a reduced majority at the 2011 and 2016 Scottish Parliament elections.

South Ayrshire Council

At the most recent South Ayrshire Council election in 2012 the composition of Councillors elected in the equivalent area of the Ayr constituency was as follows:

Members of the Scottish Parliament

At the 1999 Scottish Parliament election Labour's Ian Welsh became Ayr's first constituency MSP at Holyrood, winning the constituency with a majority of 25 votes ahead of former Ayr MP Phil Gallie. The constituency went onto elect Conservative John Scott to Parliament in a subsequent by-election held in 2000. John Scott has held the position of constituency MSP for Ayr since.

2007 election result

^(a)-comparison with Pensioners Party (Scotland)

2003 election result

In 2003 Ayr had the largest Conservative vote in Scotland both in percentage and numerical terms.

2000 by-election result

In 2000 Ayr became the first constituency in the Scottish Parliament to elect a Conservative constituency MSP to Parliament, returning Conservative John Scott to Parliament by 3,344 votes.

1999 election result

In 1999 the Ayr constituency became the most marginal constituency in the Scottish Parliament, being won by Labour's Ian Welsh by 25 votes. The constituency also had the largest Conservative vote in Scotland, both numerically and in percentage terms.