The Raila Doctrine is a phrase which has been used in a critical or alternatively tongue-in-cheek sense to describe how Raila Odinga has been reacting to his losses in Elections in Kenya . The phrase was coined in a legal argument by Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi representing the IEBC, Kenya's electoral body, during the Kenya Presidential Election Petition that was heard by the Supreme Court of Kenya in March 2013. The doctrine simply states:
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...a presidential election can never be declared to have been free and/or fair unless Raila Odinga wins the election.
It should be noted however that the Raila Doctrine is a politically-motivated phrase originating from Raila Odinga's own political opponents. Therefore it is debatable if it is an accurate portrayal of Raila historically.
Background
Raila Odinga who also happens to be the immediate former Kenyan Prime Minister, has contested three times for presidency of Kenya and has lost in all the occasions. In 1997 Raila Odinga garnered 667,886 representing approximately 10.80% of the total votes cast in an election that was won by Daniel arap Moi who was vying as the incumbent. In the 2002 Kenyan general election, Raila Odinga dropped his presidential ambition in favor of Mwai Kibaki after his now famous proclamation Kibaki Tosha. After the election victory, Raila was to fall out with Mwai Kibaki after acrimoniously accusing Mwai Kibaki of failing to honor a pre-election MOU that they had allegedly signed. In 2007, Raila Odinga was poised to be the Kenya's fourth president after riding a "popularity wave". However, matters took a different turn when in the final minutes of tallying, votes started streaming in showing that Mwai Kibaki was actually winning the election. Before the ECK made a formal declaration, Mwai Mibaki proclaimed himself to be the winner. This triggered wisespread violence throughout Kenya and over 1200 people were killed. Raila Odinga called for peace, having accepted what is now referred to as "the half loaf of bread offer" from Kibaki, to be appointed the Prime Minister of Kenya.
In 2008, Raila Odinga was instrumental to in bringing the Kriegler Commission to investigate the post election violence. Following the Kriegler Report the ECK was disbanded and sweeping changes were implemented which included the Constitution of Kenya and the IEBC
In the 2013 General Elections, the IEBC declared that Raila Odinga had lost to Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila Odinga refused to accept defeat. In a press conference shortly after the results were announced noted that the election had been marred by massive failures by the BVR kits, EVID (electronic voter identification or "Pollbooks"), RTS (results transmission system or "tallying system") and the RPS (results presentation or "transmissions system"). He claimed that the manual tallying was suspect leaving him no choice but to The Kenya Presidential Election Petition 2013 contest the result in Kenya's highest court, The Supreme Court. Mindful of bringing the challenge, Raila Odinga and his lawyers George Oraro, Mutula Kilonzo, and James Orengo, secretly instructed Raj Pal Senna, a Management Consultant from Barcelona to carry out a forensic investigation of the technology used in the Kenyan General Election 2013, during which the IEBC made claims on TV and media that there were "technological challenges", that "servers overloaded" and that "database crashed". Raj Pal Senna included in this work a forensic examination of the evidence of IEBC and Uhuru Kenyatta in relation to the technology deployed during the Kenyan Presidential Elections. Raila Odinga and his lawyers then took appropriate legal steps to verify the findings of Raj Pal Senna by consulting authorities in the USA and the UK. The findings of the Raj Pal Senna were then documented in his witness statement for Raila Odinga, and became to be known as "Witness Statement RO6"
The Supreme Court subsequently dismissed The Kenya Presidential Election Petition 2013 on 30 March 2013, and Chief Justice Willy Mutunga directed a criminal investigation of the IEBC.
Other variations
Raila Doctrine can also be used to describe the usual tendency of African opposition leaders not to concede defeat during elections. Examples include Kizza Besigye, Ugandan physician, politician and former military officer. Kizza Besigye was a contestant in Uganda's 2001, 2006 and 2011 presidential elections, but lost in all of them to the incumbent Yoweri Museveni. Another example is Morgan Tsvangirai who is the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai (MDC-T). Morgan contested in 2002, 2008 and 2013 lost in all occasions, claimed foul play and never conceded defeat.
Mr. Abdullahi has given a new interpretation to the meaning of Raila Doctrine: It means the election in a given country is free and fair only when that losing candidate is declared the winner.