Proud Prophet was a war game played by the United States of America in 1983, which took place over a seven-week period but only had about twelve total days of gameplay. It was composed of about 200 people from both the military and political leadership, who were faced with a variety of stressful scenarios and situations resembling the ongoing Cold War that needed quick decision-making. For the first time ever the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff took part, although their participation was concealed. The game was designed to see the effect of the National Command Authority's (NCA) decisions when dealing with many different situations. Although Proud Prophet was intended to help senior officials find different ways to resolve global issues in times of war or potential war, its most important outcome was that it seemed impossible to avoid the total destruction of both sides, with deaths in the billions.
Contents
Educational Objectives
The educational objectives discussed based on Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
List of Commands and Agencies Involved
The list of organizations involved are found in Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
Lead-up to Proud Prophet
The antagonism of the Cold War forced the United States leadership to contemplate the eventuality of a nuclear war. By the early 1980s, the Soviet Union had been on a two-decade arms buildup, including its nuclear arsenal. The question facing the United States was the best way to respond to this buildup. A number of strategies were proposed, including the launch of warning, demonstration nuclear attacks, limited nuclear war, decapitation attacks on Soviet command and control, shifting a war into the Far East by attacking Soviet bases there, weapons in space, NATO armies charging into Eastern Europe and recruiting the Polish and Czech armies to help, and have China attack the Soviet Union in a two-front war. The multitude of proposed strategies necessitated an evaluation of their feasibility and practicality. There was much debate on this issue, which came to a head when Andrew W. Marshall, the director of net assessment, suggested a group be set up to help the Secretary of Defense assess the various strategies he was presented with and explore new options. This group consisted of military officers from each of the armed services, as well as senior civilians and consultants. These individuals would be granted access to the resources that the National War College had to offer, with no military interference.
However, this idea was not very popular with many generals, which led to the formulation of the Strategic Concepts Development Center (SCDC). The Secretary of State at the time, Caspar Weinberger, brought in Phillip A. Karber as the founding director, asking him to bring in the best and brightest strategists that represented many different views. This whole operation had to be done with the utmost confidentiality, making it that much harder. Soon after, the suggestion of a war game was brought up.
Reagan Administration
Ronald Reagan, President of the United States from 1981 to 1989, came into office at the back end of the Cold War, when tensions were once again escalating between America and the Soviet Union after the Détente of the 1970s.
Despite treaties and economics being used as a means to weaken the Soviet Union, the Reagan Administration still had concerns on whether or not the Cold War would escalate to nuclear war. In an attempt to be prepared for the worst, a number of strategies were studied to test all avenues of this war—from peaceful negotiations to Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). The administration used techniques such as talks and games to determine the nature of the war and the temperament of the Soviet Union.
Displeased with the number of nuclear weapons in the world and recognizing the very real threat nuclear weapons posed to the United States (which had grown significantly at this time, the United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, and India having joined the nuclear armed nations), Reagan became ever more interested in finding a way to rid the world of nuclear threat. This dislike for nuclear weapons, however, extends all the way back to the start of his first term in which, upon the briefing of his different available nuclear strategies he was rendered sick, the meeting having to be reschedule. 1983 proved to be a very tense year for the Reagan administration as things became unstable with the Soviets while Reagan continued to seek out ways to bring about peace whether or not the solution involved nuclear war.
In June 1983, Reagan's Secretary of Defense, Caspar Weinberger, his chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John William Vessey Jr., as well as dozens of high-ranking military personnel participated in a classified war game known as Proud Prophet which worked in real time at the National War College. It was not the first of its kind, but did prove to be one of the most beneficial in determining the efficacy of America's nuclear strategy. In this game, they utilized each of America's nuclear strike tactics which included:
In each of these instances, tested repeatedly and with different factors which would affect outcomes, the results were grim. Outcomes of the least deadly strategy resulted in a base level of half a billion deaths and more to come in the aftermath of a nuclear fallout contaminated and annihilated the northern hemisphere. In response to this information, the Reagan Administration changed their rhetoric and strategies changed, insisting on a permanent prevention of nuclear warfare.
A number of steps were taken to ensure the end of a nuclear threat from the Soviet and American fronts alike. Understanding that, realistically, a threat still existed and in an attempt to protect the United States, Reagan initiated his Strategic Defense Initiative (nicknamed the Star Wars program) as well as more intensive talks to bring about a nuclear freeze. These tensions came to a head when he discussed the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Soviet Secretary-General Mikhail Gorbachev, which helped to reduce some of the nuclear weapons on both of the two opposing sides, slowing the arms race that had been growing at this time.
The Beginning of Proud Prophet
After the idea of a war game was proposed, Karber brought in a Harvard professor, Thomas Schelling, to help design a game testing out the various proposals and strategies listed above. Schelling told Weinberg shortly after accepting the position that he believed the senior government leaders were incredibly unprepared to deal with making important decisions, should one of the strategies realistically happen. With that being said, Weinberg decided he would help formulate the game, but only if Karber could keep the games secret and would design the game to test the US war plans and as a learning exercise for the secretary. Weinberg was worried that the "fishbowl effect", fear of public exposure and embarrassment, would disturb the decisions made by players, which were the basis of his stipulations on being involved in the games.
The Game
The games began on June 20, 1983 and was known as Proud Prophet. The game was played in real time at the National War College 24/7 for two weeks. The games took place in Washington, but military officers were also in contact with military commands across the globe, playing out scenarios in East Asia, the Mediterranean, Europe, and the Middle East. During the games, it was top secret that the secretary and the chief were involved, so security was highly protected, with only a few knowing who was actually involved as well as prevent media leaks that could in turn scare leaders in the Soviet Union and its allies.
Every morning, Karber went to the Pentagon or used a red phone to call the secretary and chairman to discuss the scenario being played out. They then talked about what actions needed to be taken by discussing US policy, possible alliance reactions, as well as what moves needed to be taken next.
During the games, many scenarios were played out, especially the strategies mentioned earlier on, such as launch on warning, which did not make the cut; the idea of leaving a launch decision up to a computer was in no one's best interest. Point blank attacking Moscow also did not make the cut, considering just how many nuclear weapons the Soviets had. They would only strike back. Deploying NATO armies seemed like a good idea before the games, until the US realized that the taking of one piece of land meant they would lose much more than they gained. Limited nuclear attacks were also tossed. The Soviets only interpreted the strikes as attacks on their culture and struck back, rather than see that the US was quite capable of winning and give up. The games had the US strike back, which resulted in all out nuclear Armageddon with more than half a billion peopled killed, leaving a great part of the northern hemisphere uninhabitable. Needless to say, this strategy scared everyone and was tossed as well.
Red Team (Soviets)
The Red Team was composed for Proud Prophet that basically tried to think and take action based on what they thought the Soviets would do during the different scenarios. They were essentially the Soviet Team during Proud Prophet.
Red Team Laws of War
The following laws of war were followed by the Red Team and are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. Marxism–Leninism is the foundation for the laws of war. There were four theoretical laws that the Soviets believed war depended on.
1. The war and its end result depend on strictly military forces of combatants at the beginning of the war. This is based on the Soviets analyzing both World Wars and the invention of nuclear weapons that are capable of changing the course of the war significantly.
2. The war and its end result depends on military potentials of combatants. This law places emphasis on the meaning of "military potentials" and how it does not strictly apply to military forces. Instead, the Soviets went further in depth with this term by including scientific, industrial, and research base along with work force, technical and education levels of the population. They are considered military potentials based on the potential of administrative agencies being able to utilize these resources within the military.
3. The war and its end result depend on the political context. This law is based on population elements and how politics plays a role within the population. In order to be ready for war, the Soviets prepare psychologically, politically, and ideologically. The structure of the war must be done in a manner to maximally use propaganda throughout the war.
4. The war and its end result depend on the moral-political and psychological capabilities of the population and military of the combatants. This law depends on how the political figures manipulate the reasoning of the war to mentally prepare the military and population. This is done by making the enemy seem unjust and educating the population about how the effect of nuclear weapons not as bad as it seems. Basically, its a mental preparation for the nation as a whole so that there is 'positive energy' going into the war.
Red National Goals
The national goals are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. These were the goals that the Red Team wanted to achieve so any action taken during Proud Prophet was to be a step forward towards their goals.
1. Preserve the power of the ruling Communist Party.
2. Defend the homeland and ensure progress toward communism.
3. Defend acquired territories (Warsaw Pact countries) and further assimilate them.
4. Exploit every opportunity to expand RED control and disrupt capitalist control in order to shift the correlation of forces in favor of RED.
Red Team Strategic Principles
The following are found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. The 14 basic strategic principles that the Red Team followed were:
1. Foment dissension in enemy camp by supporting one or more internal dissident movements.
2. Do not support an ally if, in doing so, you will make him too strong.
3. Use the forces of allies, or even better one's enemy, to defeat the primary opponent.
4. Do not let your enemy grow too weak too soon if a third party will be the primary beneficiary rather than yourself.
5. Use propaganda and demands for concessions incessantly on the principle that familiarity with uncongenial subjects eventually breeds readiness to take them for granted.
6. Use terror on prospective areas to be conquered so the population will greet your conquest with relief.
7. Be flexible in approach and accept compromises as the basis for the new demands.
8. Use peace talks and truces as a time for regrouping, employing deception, and taking whatever advantage the opponent will tolerate.
9. Avoid two front wars.
10. Be patient, do not ask or everything at once. Ensure thorough consolidation of previous position before advancing.
11. Build such overwhelming military power that an opponent will realize he must not accommodate.
12. Combine offensive and defensive methods, tools and weapons in a coordinated manner designed to ensure retention of the initiative.
13. Use psychological technique known as "reflexive control" to lead an opponent into unwittingly doing what you want.
14. Remember the critical importance of time as a key factor in warfare. Establish time-phased goals based on thorough testing to determine minimum realistic and feasible times required to accomplish missions.
Red Team Non-Military Forms of War
The Soviets believe that they have more strength in their non-military forms of war in comparison to the Western countries. Because of this belief, the Soviets maximized the use of these forms of war. The following three non-military forms of war can be found in Section V, Red Strategic Plan, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document. They are:
1. Economic - Use Western weaknesses in financial structure and energy resources as levers to create unemployment, panic and clashes between peoples and governments.
2. Cultural - Use cultural concerns as psychological levers to prevent Western use of nuclear weapons.
3. Political - Manipulate local political interests, groups and individuals.