Nationality Canadian Role Author | Name Peter Pham | |
Occupation Hedge Fund Manager, Author, Capital Markets Historian Subject Investing
Trading
Economics Notable works The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns; The Big Trade Series; Global Growth and Income; Breaking with Tradition Books The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns | ||
J Peter Pham talks about US and Democratic Republic of Congo Relations
Peter Pham is an author, international fund manager, and a registered financial director by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA). In 2013 he published his first book entitled,The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns. He currently manages the portfolio of a global hedge fund and runs an asset management company, Phoenix Capital. In 2010 he founded AlphaVN.com, a popular online resource focused on capital markets and trading in Southeast Asia. In 2014, he launched "The Big Trade Series" a podcast consisting of discussions with various financial thought leaders. Overall, Pham has more than 15 years of experience in capital markets and fund management, and is recognized as an expert consultant in global equities. Pham's stock picks featured on Seeking Alpha have accumulated an average return of 59% over a two year period.
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Career
Pham's career stretches 15 years of experience working in capital markets, including senior positions at several respected brokerage and investment firms, and work with some of the world's largest international funds. In March 2014 he founded Phoenix Capital, a Cayman Islands exempted asset management company that offers investment and financial advisory services. Pham currently manages the portfolio of Global Growth and Income Fund, an open-end global fund designed to outperform the MSCI-Barra World Free index with a mix of young high-growth and mature high-income vehicles.
Investments
Pham's stock picks featured on Seeking Alpha have accumulated an average return of 59% over a two year period. This average includes all of Pham's recommendations published throughout his Seeking Alpha run, including long and short positions that have performed both positively and negatively. One of his most successful positions on the site is his long position on Netflix. In 2012 Pham commented on a deal between Netflix and Disney, in which he praised the move for creating strong economic goodwill for Netflix and improving distribution. Netflix stock has risen significantly since the time of Pham's recommendations. Another long position that has performed well for Pham is Nokia. He wrote several pieces from 2012 - 2013 detailing some positive signs of growth for Nokia and praising some of their new products. Nokia's stock has recovered significantly since the time of his recommendations. In 2012 Pham also advocated for a long position in 3D Systems, stating that the disruptive technology offered by this company would be worth considering for forward thinking investors. One of Pham's recent positions is in the US dollar and the S&P 500, which has also proven to be successful for him and his fund.
Writing
In 2013, John Wiley & Sons published Pham's first book, The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns. The thesis of the book states that one must look at markets from an agnostic and pragmatic standpoint, and assess markets based on available information and statistics. His book preaches the use of probabilities to determine ideal points to begin building a position. Pham's book and his various media publications express his views on a number of topics including the use of fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis, technical analysis, and the outlook for Asian capital markets.
Fundamental Analysis
Pham is a proponent of fundamental analysis. He describes fundamental analysis as a, "set of tools you use to consider the structural underpinnings of a market or stock." He claims that fundamental analysis places an important emphasis on research, and takes into account things like macroeconomics, that are not taken into account in other forms of analysis. Pham states that fundamental analysis can give an investor a story on the background and present situation of a company, which is an important tool to utilize but can not serve as the be all, end all of an investor's approach.
Quantitative Analysis
Much like fundamental analysis, Pham supports the use of quantitative analysis in investing. He encourages the use of statistics and probabilities to build an understanding of a stock's past movements and determine an effective market entry or exit point. Pham insists that quantitative analysis is the universal method and necessary tool for investment decisions. He believes in a balance between quantitative and fundamental analysis to create an effective trading strategy.
Fallacies of Technical Analysis
In his book and other publications, Pham expresses strong opinions against the use of technical analysis. Pham is of the viewpoint that rather than being predictive, markets are probabilistic, and these probabilities in the market are effective in determining a stock's behavior. Pham suggests that rather than using the patterns associated with technical analysis, an investor should rely more on a stock's intrinsic value and market auction theory. He claims that technical analysis creates reification and multistability within the mind of an investor. Reification is the brain's ability to add something to a pattern that is not specifically there, while multistability refers to a pattern with multiple viable outcomes. Pham claims that these two processes are especially present when discussing technical analysis and its reliance on patters which, in Pham's opinion, hold no predictive weight as markets rely on probabilities.
Pham calls upon the scientific method in his critique of technical analysis. He states that due to the fact that technical analysis is based entirely on inductive reasoning, it can not produce falsifiable hypotheses. Because of this, Pham asserts that technical analysis can demonstrate correlations, but not causality. This means that while two things might correlate with each other, one did not necessarily directly cause the other to occur.
Asian Capital Markets
Pham resides in Asia, and has frequently expressed his opinions on various aspects of Asian capital markets. Specifically, Pham is of the opinion that investors in places like London or New York City will soon start flocking to Singapore due to greater transparency and incentives for bullion trading. Pham has also been vocal about the sovereign debt situation in Southeast Asia and the negative effects state policies have on capital markets in the region.
Media Presence
Pham has been an active contributor to various media outlets for financial and trading information including The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, and CNN Money. Pham has also been featured multiple times on Bloomberg where he has discussed his views on topics such as Twitter expanding into Asia and the tensions between Vietnam and China. In addition, he has also been interviewed for notable financial news publications including Financial Times, Reuters, Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal. His writing has also been featured in Active Trader, and websites like Minyanville, Euromoney, and Trading Markets.
Podcast
In 2014, the inaugural episode of Pham's podcast, "The Big Trade Series", was launched on iTunes where it has been featured globally in the iTunes store's "New and Noteworthy" section. The podcast is also available on the podcast hosting website, Podomatic, where it is ranked as the #1 podcast in the site's "Investing" category. The podcast offers financial market insights through casual, thought provoking discussions, and has featured numerous financial thought leaders as guests including Jim Rogers, James Altucher, Rick Rule, Jack Schwager, Porter Stansberry, Meb Faber, Vitaliy Katsenelson, Andrew Horowitz, Kim Iskyan, Gary Dorsch, Victor Ricciardi, Frank Curzio, and Richard Maybury.