3 December 2010 4 December 2014 47 seats 38 seats 46 seats 38 seats Start date November 24, 2018 | 4 December 2014 25 November 2006 38 seats 2 seats 38 seats 2 seats Location Victoria, Australia | |
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The next state election in the state of Victoria will be held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and 40 members to the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission.
Contents
Date of election
Pursuant to Electoral Act 2002 Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every 4 years on the last Saturday of November. The election will be for all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council. Based on the fixed term legislation, the next election will occur on 24 November 2018.
Lower house
At the 2014 election, Labor won majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition won 38 seats, with the Liberal party winning 30 and the National party winning 8. On the crossbench, the Greens won 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed won the seat of Shepparton.
Upper house
At the 2014 election, Labor won 14 seats; the Coalition won 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens won 5 seats; the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won 2 seats; and the Sex Party, Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party won 1 seat each.
Pendulum
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results. The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
By-elections
Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for the 14 March. The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.
Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.
Changes in parliament
Don Nardella, the former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly and member for the seat of Melton, resigned from Labor Party on 7 March 2017 to sit as an independent. Nardella's resignation was demanded by Premier Andrews after Nardella refused to pay back approximately $100,000 of taxpayer funded entitlements in the midst an expenses scandal. The resignation reduced the number of Labor members in the Assembly from 47 to 46, still above the 45 seats needed for majority government to be formed. Nardella had previously announced his intention to quit politics at the 2018 election and following his resignation from the Labor Party stated he intended to serve out his full term as the member for Melton.
Labor
Liberal
Independent
Polling
Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.