United States presidential election in Colorado, 2008

Caucuses

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat
2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
3. Takeaway: Leaning Obama
4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat
6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama
7. Politico: Leaning Obama
8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama
10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat
11. New York Times: Leaning Democrat
12. CNN: Leaning Democrat
13. NPR: Leaning Obama
14. MSNBC: Leaning Obama
15. Fox News: Democrat
16. Associated Press: Democrat
17. Rasmussen Reports: Leaning Democrat

Polling

Pre-election polling taken in Colorado prior to the election mostly showed Obama with a slight lead. He led every poll after October 5.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $3,491,086. Barack Obama raised almost $11 million.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $10,410,669. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,818,077. McCain/Palin visited the state 13 times. Obama/Biden visited the state 8 times.

Analysis

Changing demographics and a growing Hispanic population made the state more favorable to the Democrats, although Republicans still had a hold on the state due to the party's conservative stances on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control.

Colorado has traditionally voted Republican, turning red in every presidential election since 1952, with the exception of 1964 and 1992. Colorado supported George W. Bush in both 2000 and again in 2004, although by a margin of less than 5%. In addition, Republicans have mostly held control of the state legislature and most statewide offices since the 1960s. On the other hand, the Governor's Mansion has been held by Democrats for 22 out of the past 30 years. Traditionally, Democratic strength in Denver, Boulder and Pueblo was no match for Republican dominance in the Denver suburbs, the rural areas, and Colorado Springs.

Recently, however, there has been a growing population of Hispanic Americans, young professionals, and an influx of people from other states - all of whom tend to vote Democratic. These demographic changes have been causing the state's political ideology to shift. While Republicans continue to enjoy an advantage in voter registration statewide, Democrats have been closing the gap. There has also been an increasing number of unaffiliated, independent-minded voters. Since 2004, Democrats have won the governorship, both Senate seats, three House seats, and control of both chambers in the state legislature.

While Colorado had not been extensively contested in the 2004 election, Bush's narrow margin in that election and the demographic changes of the last four years led it to become a crucial swing state for 2008. Both Barack Obama and John McCain campaigned extensively in the state.

Several factors in the campaign favored the Democrat. Barack Obama did very well in the caucus, defeating opponent Hillary Clinton with almost 67% of the vote. On the other hand, John McCain badly lost the state to opponent Mitt Romney, who gained 60% of the vote.

Moreover, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver. The publicity generated from the event provided a strong boost to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Obama and McCain were neck-to-neck through the summer and early September. However, as the 2008 financial crisis hit, Obama's numbers in Colorado jumped to over 50%.

During the campaign, several media organizations reported on voting machine problems. There was also reporting on the controversial practice of "purging" voter registration lists.

On election day, Obama won by a comfortable margin, greater than his national average. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance throughout the state. He won landslides in the Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder; in both areas, Obama took more than 70% of the vote. Democrats also do well in two other regions of the state. Along the Front Range, a number of rich counties dominated by ski resorts lean Democratic; in southern Colorado, a number of thinly populated, Latino counties also lean Democratic. By and large, Obama won these areas.

McCain did best in the rural, conservative areas next to Kansas and Utah, where he won landslide margins. Voters in more populated El Paso County, home to conservative Colorado Springs, gave McCain a 19% margin, though far less than Bush's 35% margin in 2004. In Denver's suburbs, McCain won Douglas County and Weld County, both by comfortable margins.

However, Denver's suburbs swung heavily to the Democrats. Bush narrowly won Jefferson County, Arapahoe County, and Broomfield County (in addition to what McCain won) - all three flipped to the Democratic candidate in 2008.

Thus, Obama was able to take landslide margins amongst the Democratic base while shifting suburban Colorado to the Democratic side. While he still lost places such as Colorado Springs, he greatly improved on Kerry's showing in those areas.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats also did well. Democratic Mark Udall defeated Republican Bob Schaffer for an open U.S. Senate seats; his vacated House seat was also won by Democrat Jared Polis. In addition, Democrat Betsy Markey defeated incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave, by 12 points for Colorado's 4th Congressional District seat. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Colorado Senate, but lost two seats in the Colorado House of Representatives.

By congressional district

While Barack Obama won the state’s popular vote and 9 electoral votes, John McCain carried four of the state’s seven congressional districts, including both seats held by Republicans and two seats held by Democrats.

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

1. Wellington Webb
2. Terry Phillips
3. Camilla Auger
4. Pam Shaddock
5. Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez
6. Don Strickland
7. Ann Knollman
8. Polly Baca
9. Margaret Atencio