United States presidential election, 2016

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to the restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section I of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expired at noon on January 20, 2017.

Primary process

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process was also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elected their party's presidential nominee.

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election would be between Clinton and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey as potential candidates.

Primaries

With seventeen major candidates entering the race, starting with Ted Cruz on March 23, 2015, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, 2016, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state.

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won the most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in New York and five Northeastern states in April, followed by a decisive victory in Indiana on May 3, 2016, securing all 57 of the state's delegates. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.

Other major candidates

Major candidates were determined by the various media based on common consensus. The following were invited to sanctioned televised debates based on their poll ratings.

Trump received 14,010,177 total votes in the primary. Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each won at least one primary, with Trump receiving the highest number of votes and Ted Cruz receiving the second highest.

Vice presidential selection

Trump turned his attention towards selecting a running mate after he became the presumptive nominee on May 4, 2016. In mid-June, Eli Stokols and Burgess Everett of Politico reported that the Trump campaign was considering New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich from Georgia, Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin. A June 30 Washington Post report also included Senators Bob Corker from Tennessee, Richard Burr from North Carolina, Tom Cotton from Arkansas, Joni Ernst from Iowa, and Indiana Governor Mike Pence as individuals still being considered for the ticket. Trump also stated that he was considering two military generals for the position, including retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn.

In July 2016, it was reported that Trump had narrowed his list of possible running mates down to three: Christie, Gingrich, and Pence.

On July 14, 2016, several major media outlets reported that Trump had selected Pence as his running mate. Trump confirmed these reports in a message on Twitter on July 15, 2016, and formally made the announcement the following day in New York. On July 19, the second night of the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pence won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation.

Primaries

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first woman to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency. Clinton made the announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message. While nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced challenges from Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who became the second major candidate when he formally announced on April 30, 2015, that he was running for the Democratic nomination. September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders. On May 30, 2015, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third major candidate to enter the Democratic primary race, followed by former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee on June 3, 2015, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb on July 2, 2015, and former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig on September 6, 2015.

On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run. The next day Vice-President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent." On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity". On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.

On February 1, 2016, in an extremely close contest, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2 points over Sanders. After winning no delegates in Iowa, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote. On March 1, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia and 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont and 340 delegates. The following weekend, Sanders won victories in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine with 15–30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders won by a small margin of 1.5 points and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi. On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Clinton won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third "Super Tuesday" dubbed the "Acela primary", she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, while Sanders won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Sanders accomplished another surprise win in the Indiana primary and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Clinton won the Guam caucus and Kentucky primary.

On June 4 and 5, Clinton won two victories in the Virgin Islands caucus and Puerto Rico primary. On June 6, 2016, the Associated Press and NBC News reported that Clinton had become the presumptive nominee after reaching the required number of delegates, including pledged delegates and superdelegates, to secure the nomination, becoming the first woman to ever clinch the presidential nomination of a major United States political party. On June 7, Clinton secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning primaries in California, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders only won in Montana and North Dakota. Clinton also won the final primary in the District of Columbia on June 14. At the conclusion of the primary process, Clinton had won 2,204 pledged delegates (54% of the total) awarded by the primary elections and caucuses, while Sanders had won 1,847 (46%). Out of the 714 unpledged delegates or "superdelegates" who were set to vote in the convention in July, Clinton received endorsements from 560 (78%), while Sanders received 47 (7%).

Although Sanders had not formally dropped out of the race, he announced on June 16, 2016, that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election. On July 8, appointees from the Clinton campaign, the Sanders campaign, and the Democratic National Committee negotiated a draft of the party's platform. On July 12, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with her. On July 22, three days before the start of the Democratic National Convention, the Clinton campaign announced that Virginia Senator Tim Kaine had been selected as her running mate.

Other major candidates

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks and cable news channels, or were listed in publicly published national polls. Lessig was invited to one forum, but withdrew when rules were changed which prevented him from participating in officially sanctioned debates.

Clinton received 16,849,779 votes in the primary.

Vice presidential selection

In April 2016, the Clinton campaign began to compile a list of 15 to 20 individuals to vet for the position of running mate, even though Sanders continued to challenge Clinton in the Democratic primaries. In mid-June, The Wall Street Journal reported that Clinton's shortlist included Representative Xavier Becerra from California, Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey, Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro from Texas, Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti from California, Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia, Labor Secretary Tom Perez from Maryland, Representative Tim Ryan from Ohio, and Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts. Subsequent reports stated that Clinton was also considering Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, retired Admiral James Stavridis, and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado. In discussing her potential vice presidential choice, Clinton stated that the most important attribute she looked for was the ability and experience to immediately step into the role of president.

On July 22, Clinton announced that she had chosen Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia as her running mate. The delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, which took place July 25–28, formally nominated the Democratic ticket.

Third parties and independents

Third party and independent candidates that have obtained more than 100,000 votes nationally and one percent of the vote in at least one state, are listed separately.

Libertarian Party

Green Party

Independents

Constitution Party

General election campaign

Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women's rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a "clawback" which would rescind tax relief and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas; with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders; as well as increasing collective bargaining rights; and placing an "exit tax" on companies that move their headquarters out of America in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas. Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do, promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool, expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage, and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it "[i]s at its heart a family issue."

Donald Trump's campaign drew heavily on his personal image, enhanced by his previous media exposure. The primary slogan of the Trump campaign, extensively used on campaign merchandise, was Make America Great Again. The red baseball cap with the slogan emblazoned on the front became a symbol of the campaign, and has been frequently donned by Trump and his supporters. Trump's right-wing populist positions—reported by The New Yorker to be nativist, protectionist, and semi-isolationist—differ in many ways from traditional conservatism. He opposed many free trade deals and military interventionist policies that conservatives generally support, and opposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Moreover, he has insisted that Washington is "broken" and can only be fixed by an outsider. Trump support was high among working and middle-class white male voters with annual incomes of less than $50,000 and no college degree. This group, particularly those with less than a high-school education, suffered a decline in their income in recent years. According to The Washington Post, support for Trump is higher in areas with a higher mortality rate for middle-age white people. A sample of interviews with more than 11,000 Republican-leaning respondents from August to December 2015 found that Trump at that time found his strongest support among Republicans in West Virginia, followed by New York, and then followed by six Southern states.

Clinton had an uneasy, and at times adversarial relationship with the press throughout her life in public service. Weeks before her official entry as a presidential candidate, Clinton attended a political press corps event, pledging to start fresh on what she described as a "complicated" relationship with political reporters. Clinton was initially criticized by the press for avoiding taking their questions, after which she provided more interviews.

In contrast, Trump benefited from free media more than any other candidate. From the beginning of his campaign through February 2016, Trump received almost $2 billion in free media attention, twice the amount that Clinton received. According to data from the Tyndall Report, which tracks nightly news content, through February 2016, Trump alone accounted for more than a quarter of all 2016 election coverage on the evening newscasts of NBC, CBS and ABC, more than all the Democratic campaigns combined. Observers noted Trump's ability to garner constant mainstream media coverage "almost at will". However, Trump frequently criticized the media for writing what he alleged to be false stories about him and he has called upon his supporters to be "the silent majority". Trump also said the media "put false meaning into the words I say", and says he does not mind being criticized by the media as long as they are honest about it.

Both Clinton and Trump were seen unfavorably by the general public. In consequence, the controversial nature of both main parties' campaigns marked the road to the election.

Clinton's practice of using her own private email address and server during her time as Secretary of State, in lieu of State Department servers, gained widespread public attention back in March 2015. Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated. After allegations were raised that some of the emails in question fell into this so-called "born classified" category, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server. The FBI probe was concluded on July 5, 2016, with a recommendation of no charges, a recommendation that was followed by the Justice Department. On October 28, eleven days before the election, FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that the FBI was analyzing additional emails obtained during its investigation of an unrelated case. On November 6, he notified Congress that the new emails did not change the FBI's earlier conclusion.

Also, on September 9, 2016, Clinton stated: "You know, just to be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it." Donald Trump criticized Clinton's remark as insulting his supporters. The following day Clinton expressed regret for saying "half", while insisting that Trump had deplorably amplified "hateful views and voices". Previously on August 25, 2016, Clinton gave a speech criticizing Trump's campaign for using "racist lies" and allowing the alt-right to gain prominence.

On the other side, on October 7, 2016, video and accompanying audio were released by The Washington Post in which Trump referred obscenely to women in a 2005 conversation with Billy Bush while they were preparing to film an episode of Access Hollywood. The audio was met with a reaction of disbelief and disgust from the media. Following the revelation, Trump's campaign issued an apology, stating that the video was of a private conversation from "many years ago". The incident was condemned by numerous prominent Republicans like Reince Priebus, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and the Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. By October 8 several dozen Republicans had called for Trump to withdraw from the campaign and let Pence head the ticket. Trump insisted he would never drop out.

The ongoing of the election made third parties attract voters' attention. On March 3, 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington DC, touting himself as the third-party option for anti-Trump Republicans. In early May, some commentators opined that Johnson was moderate enough to pull votes away from both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who are very disliked and polarizing. Both conservative and liberal media noted that Johnson could get votes from "Never Trump" Republicans and disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters. Johnson also began to get time on national television, being invited on ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Bloomberg, and many other networks. In September and October 2016, Johnson suffered a "string of damaging stumbles when he has fielded questions about foreign affairs." On September 8, Johnson, when he appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe, was asked by panelist Mike Barnicle, "What would you do, if you were elected, about Aleppo?" (referring to a war-torn city in Syria). Johnson responded, "And what is Aleppo?" Johnson's "what is Aleppo?" question prompted widespread attention, much of it negative. Later that day, Johnson said that he had "blanked" and that he did "understand the dynamics of the Syrian conflict – I talk about them every day."

On the other hand, Green Party candidate Jill Stein stated that the Democratic and Republican parties are "two corporate parties" that have converged into one. Concerned by the rise of the far right internationally and the tendency towards neoliberalism within the Democratic Party, she has said, "The answer to neofascism is stopping neoliberalism. Putting another Clinton in the White House will fan the flames of this right-wing extremism."

In response to Johnson's growing poll numbers, the Hillary Clinton campaign and Democratic allies increased their criticism against Johnson in September 2016, warning that "a vote for a third party is a vote for Donald Trump" and deploying Senator Bernie Sanders (Clinton's former primary rival, who supported her in the general election) to win over voters who might be considering voting for Johnson or for Stein.

Ballot access

Party conventions

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it is reported to Federal Election Commission (FEC) and released in September 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure only committees—also called PACs and SuperPACs. The sources of the numbers are the FEC and Center for Responsive Politics. Some spending totals are not available, due to withdrawals before the FEC deadline. As of September 2016, ten candidates with ballot access have filed financial reports with the FEC.

Newspaper endorsements

Clinton was endorsed by The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Houston Chronicle, the San Jose Mercury News, the Chicago Sun-Times and the New York Daily News editorial boards. Trump, who has frequently criticized the mainstream media, was not endorsed by the vast majority of newspapers, with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, The Florida Times-Union, and the tabloid National Enquirer his highest profile supporters. Several papers which endorsed Clinton, such as the Houston Chronicle, The Dallas Morning News, The San Diego Union-Tribune The Columbus Dispatch and The Arizona Republic, endorsed their first Democratic candidate for many decades. USA Today, which had not endorsed any candidate since it was founded in 1982, broke tradition by giving an anti-endorsement against Trump, declaring him "unfit for the presidency". The Atlantic, which has been in circulation since 1857, gave Clinton its third-ever endorsement (after Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson).

Other traditionally Republican papers, including the New Hampshire Union Leader, which had endorsed the Republican nominee in every election for the last 100 years, The Detroit News, which had not endorsed a non-Republican in its 143 years, and the Chicago Tribune, endorsed Gary Johnson.

Russian involvement concerns

On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed President Barack Obama ordered a "full enquiry" into such possible intervention. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media.

President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated, and Wikileaks denied any involvement by Russian authorities. Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies."

Several U.S. senators—including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham—demanded a congressional investigation. The Senate Intelligence Committee announced the scope of their official inquiry on December 13, 2016, on a bipartisan basis; work began on January 24, 2017.

General election debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, hosted debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "... in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination."

The three locations chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

On August 19, Trump's campaign manager confirmed that he would participate in a series of three debates. Trump had complained that two of the scheduled debates, one on September 26 and the other October 9, will have to compete for viewers with National Football League games, referencing the similar complaints made regarding the dates with low expected ratings during the Democratic Party presidential debates. According to a survey by Rasmussen Reports, the majority of American voters believed that the debate moderators at the presidential debates would be helping Hillary Clinton.

The Free & Equal Elections Foundation announced plans to host an open debate among all presidential candidates who had ballot access sufficient to represent a majority of electoral votes. In October 2016 Free & Equal extended the invitation to all candidates with ballot lines representing at least 15% of the electoral vote. The nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Reform, and Socialism and Liberation parties, as well as independent candidate Evan McMullin, were invited to participate. The debate was held at the University of Colorado Boulder's Macky Auditorium on October 25, 2016. It was moderated by Ed Asner and Christina Tobin, with Darrell Castle, Rocky De La Fuente, and Gloria La Riva participating.

PBS hosted a debate moderated by Tavis Smiley between Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Results

The election was held on November 8, 2016. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton cast her vote in the New York City suburb of Chappaqua, while Republican candidate Donald Trump voted in a Manhattan public school. Throughout the day, the election process went more smoothly than many had expected, with only a few reports of long lines and equipment problems.

The Republican candidate performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Even Wisconsin and Michigan, states that were predicted to vote Democratic, were won by Trump. Cindy Adams, present at Trump Tower, reported that "Trumptown knew they’d won by 5:30. Math, calculations, candidate dislike causing voter abstention begat the numbers".

On November 9, 2016, at 3:00 AM Eastern Time, Trump secured over 270 electoral votes, the majority of the 538 electors in the Electoral College, enough to make him the president-elect of the United States. Clinton called Trump early on Wednesday morning, conceding defeat. Clinton asked her supporters to accept the result and hoped that Trump would be "a successful president for all Americans". In his victory speech Trump appealed for unity saying "it is time for us to come together as one united people" and praised Clinton who was owed "a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country".

Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump. These are (with Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney in 2012, with two lost to faithless electors the following month. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous Presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic.

It is estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot in 2016. 65.8 million of those ballots have been counted for Clinton and just under 63 million for Trump, representing 20.3% (Clinton) and 19.4% (Trump) of the U.S. Census Bureau estimate of U.S. population that day of 324.9 million. Considering a voting age population (VAP) of 251.1 million people and voting eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.3% VAP and 60.2% VEP. Voting turnout percentage was up compared to 2012 (54.9% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (58.2% VAP). More votes were cast in the 2016 election than any prior election due to an increase in the voting population.

Source (Popular Vote):

Nationwide:
Leip, David. "2016 Presidential Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved February 27, 2017. 

For Bernie Sanders and John Kasich: CA: and NH: VT: NC: PA: [5] RI:

^(a) Received electoral vote(s) from a faithless elector.

^(b) Two faithless electors from Texas cast their presidential votes for Ron Paul and John Kasich, respectively. Chris Suprun stated that he cast his presidential vote for John Kasich and his vice presidential vote for Carly Fiorina. The other faithless elector in Texas, Bill Greene, cast his presidential vote for Ron Paul but cast his vice presidential vote for Mike Pence, as pledged. John Kasich received recorded write-in votes in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.

^(c) Candidate received votes as a write-in. The exact amounts of write-in votes for Sanders have been published for 3 states. In California, his official running mate was Tulsi Gabbard and in New Hampshire and Vermont there was not a running mate attached to Sanders. It was possible to vote Sanders as a write-in candidate in 14 states.

Results by state

A total of 29 third party and independent presidential candidates appeared on the ballot in at least one state. Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson and physician Jill Stein repeated their 2012 roles as the nominees for the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, respectively. With ballot access to the entire national electorate, Johnson received nearly 4.5 million votes (3.28%), the highest nationwide vote share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996, while Stein received almost 1.45 million votes (1.06%), the most for a Green nominee since Ralph Nader in 2000.

Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who appeared on the ballot in 11 states, received over 725,000 votes (0.53%). He won 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a third-party candidate in any state since 1992. Despite dropping out of the election following his defeat in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a presidential candidate in American history. Johnson and McMullin were the first third party candidates since Nader to receive at least 5% of the vote in one or more states, with Johnson crossing the mark in 11 states and McMullin crossing it in two.

Aside from Florida and North Carolina, the states which secured Trump's victory are situated in the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. Wisconsin went Republican for the first time since 1984, while Pennsylvania and Michigan went Republican for the first time since 1988. Stein petitioned for a recount in these states. The Clinton campaign pledged to participate in the Green Party recount efforts, while Trump backers challenged them in court. Meanwhile, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente petitioned for and was granted a partial recount in Nevada.

Electoral methods

^★Two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes. Results are from The New York Times.

^★★The column labeled 'Margin' shows Trump's margin of victory over Clinton (the margin is negative for every state that Clinton won).

Close races

Red denotes states (or congressional districts whose electoral votes are awarded separately) won by Republican Donald Trump; blue denotes those won by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):

1. Michigan, 0.23%
2. New Hampshire, 0.31%
3. Pennsylvania, 0.72%
4. Wisconsin, 0.76%

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):

1. Florida, 1.20%
2. Minnesota, 1.52%
3. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 2.24%
4. Nevada, 2.42%
5. Maine, 2.96%
6. Arizona, 3.55%
7. North Carolina, 3.66%
8. Colorado, 4.91%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (96 electoral votes; 78 won by Trump, 18 by Clinton):

1. Georgia, 5.13%
2. Virginia, 5.32%
3. Ohio, 8.13%
4. New Mexico, 8.21%
5. Texas, 9.00%
6. Iowa, 9.41%

Battleground states

Most media outlets announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to Election Day. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, Larry Sabato listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the general election. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.

Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as Colorado and Virginia, were expected to shift towards Clinton. By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump. According to Politico and the 538 online blog, his path to victory went though states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.

Early polling indicated a closer-than-usual race in former Democratic strongholds such as Washington, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine (for the two statewide electoral votes), and New Mexico. Meanwhile, research indicators from inside of a host of Republican-leaning states such as Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Alaska, Utah, Texas, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and South Dakota reported weaker support for Trump than expected, although the nominee's position solidified in a few other areas. Some reviews took this information as evidence of an expanded 'swing-state map'.

A consensus among political pundits developed throughout the primary election season regarding swing states. From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe electoral vote count of about 150 to 200. However, the margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts. It was thought that left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump mostly appealed to blue-collar workers. They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican. In addition, local factors may come into play. For example, Utah was the reddest state in 2012, although the Republican share was boosted significantly by the candidacy of Mormon candidate Mitt Romney. Despite its partisan orientation, some reports suggested a victory there by independent candidate Evan McMullin, particularly if there was a nationwide blowout.

Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina. Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included Nebraska's second congressional district, Georgia, and Arizona. Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees. However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations. Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state. The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.

As the parameters of the race established themselves, analysts converged on a narrower list of contested states, which were relatively similar to those of recent elections. On November 7, the Cook Political Report categorized Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as states with close races. Additionally, a district from each of Maine and Nebraska were considered to be coin flips. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight listed twenty-two states as potentially competitive about a month before the election – Maine's two at-large electoral votes, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Missouri, and Utah – as well as Maine's second and Nebraska's second congressional districts. Nate Silver, the publication's editor-in-chief, subsequently removed Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana from the list after the race tightened significantly. These conclusions were supported by models such as the Princeton Elections Consortium, the New York Times Upshot, and punditry evaluations from Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report.

Clinton won states like New Mexico by less than 10 percentage points. Among the states where the candidates finished at a margin of within 7 percent, Clinton won Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10), and New Hampshire (4). On the other hand, Trump won Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nebraska's second district (1), and Georgia (16). States won by Obama in the 2012 contest, such as Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and Maine's second district (1), were also won by Trump. The close result in Maine was not expected by most commentators, nor were Trump's victory of over 10 points in the second district and their disparities. The dramatic shift of Midwestern states towards Trump were contrasted in the media against the relative movement of Southern states towards the Democrats. For example, former Democratic strongholds such as Minnesota leaned towards the GOP and Iowa voted more Republican than Texas did, while Arizona and Georgia were more Democratic than Ohio. Mississippi's relatively close result, as well as Trump's larger victories in Alaska and Utah, also took some experts by surprise.

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. Trump's crucial victories in the Midwest were aided in large part by his strong margins among Northern whites without college degrees; while Obama (in 2012) and Kerry (in 2004) lost those voters by a margin of 10 points, Clinton lost them by a margin of 20 points. The election also represented the first time that Republicans performed better among lower-income whites than among affluent white voters. Additionally, Trump nearly doubled his support from Muslims compared to 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. While exit polls are useful, they have in the past overstated or given partial portraits of the electorate, and further study with additional data is generally required.

Forecasting

Various methods were used to forecast the outcome of the 2016 election. For the 2016 election, there were many competing election forecast approaches including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at The New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales, PollyVote, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Electoral-Vote. These models mostly showed a Democratic advantage since the nominees were confirmed, and were supported by pundits and statisticians, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn at the New York Times, and Larry Sabato from the Crystal Ball newsletter, who predicted a Democratic victory in competitive presidential races and projected consistent leads in several battleground states around the country. However, FiveThirtyEight's model pointed the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania due to demographics targeted by Trump's campaign living in big numbers there, in addition of Clinton's poor performing in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performing in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated states traditionally 'blue' but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red' like Texas which were projected safe for Trump.

Early exit polls generally favored Clinton. After the polls closed and some of the results came in, the forecasts were found to be inaccurate, as Trump performed better in the competitive Rust Belt states, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, than expected. Even states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which were considered to be part of Clinton's firewall, were won by Trump. Of the Rust Belt group of states, only Minnesota was slightly won by Clinton. The states in the following table were all won by President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, with the exception of North Carolina, which he lost to Mitt Romney in 2012.

Pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the 2016 election outcome. Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error. Nate Silver found that the high amount of undecided and third-party voters in the election were neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.

FiveThirtyEight's final polls-plus forecast predicted 18 states, plus the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, with an interval of confidence lower than 90%. However, every major forecaster, including FiveThirtyEight, the New York Times Upshot, prediction markets aggregator PredictWise, ElectionBettingOdds from Maxim Lott and John Stossel, the DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, the Huffington Post, the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Rothenberg and Gonzales Report, called every state the same way (although Cook and Rothenberg-Gonzales left two and five states as toss-ups, respectively). The sole exception was Maine's 2nd congressional district. Of the forecasters who published results on the district, the Times gave Trump a 64% chance of winning and PredictWise a 52% chance, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 51% chance of winning in polls-only and 54% in polls-plus, Princeton gave her a 60% chance, Cook labelled it a toss-up, and Sabato leaned it towards Trump. The following table displays the final winning probabilities given by each outlet, along with the final electoral result. The states shown have been identified by Politico, WhipBoard, the New York Times, and the Crystal Ball as battlegrounds.

Viewership

Source: adweek

Aftermath

Trump's victory, considered unlikely by most forecasts, was characterized as an "upset" and as "shocking" by the media.

Both major-party candidates were unusually old. At 70 years of age, Trump became the oldest person ever to be elected to a first term as president, surpassing Ronald Reagan, who was 69 years, 272 days upon winning the 1980 election. Clinton, at 69 years, 13 days, would have been the second-oldest after Reagan.

Along with Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, Trump was born in 1946; this is the first time a single birth year has produced three presidents. (1946 was a year of unusually numerous births, marking the first year of the post–World War II baby boom.) Trump is the fifth president to be born in the state of New York, after Martin Van Buren, Millard Fillmore, Theodore Roosevelt, and Franklin D. Roosevelt; he is the second president born in New York City after Theodore Roosevelt. Trump is also the third president, after James K. Polk in 1844, and Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win an election despite losing his home state.

Trump became the first person since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 to be elected president without having been elected to any other previous office, and the only individual to be elected president without any prior political or military experience. Among other presidents with limited military or political experience, William Howard Taft never served in the military and had been elected to political office only once, as an Ohio state judge, although he later held a number of appointed federal government positions, including in the Cabinet of a president. Herbert Hoover did not serve in the military and never held elected office, but he led two federal government agencies during and after World War I and served in the Cabinets of two other presidents. However, Trump is unique in not having any state or federal government experience: military, appointed, or elected.

Protests

Following the announcement of Trump's election, large protests broke out across the United States with some continuing for several days.

Protesters have held up a number of different signs and chanted various shouts including "Not my president" and "We don't accept the president-elect". The movement organized on Twitter under the hashtags #Anti-trump and #NotMyPresident.

High school and college students walked out of classes to protest. The protests were peaceful for the most part, although at some protests fires were lit, flags were burned and people yelled rude remarks about Trump. Celebrities such as Madonna, Cher, and Lady Gaga took part in New York. Some protesters took to blocking freeways in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Portland, Oregon, and were dispersed by police in the early hours of the morning. In a number of cities, protesters were dispersed with rubber bullets, pepper spray and bean-bags fired by police. In New York City, calls were made to continue the protests over the coming days after the Election. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani called protesters "a bunch of spoiled cry-babies." Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti expressed understanding of the protests and praised those who peacefully wanted to make their voices heard.

Vote tampering concerns

After the election, computer scientists, including J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, urged the Clinton campaign to request an election recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (three swing states where Trump had won narrowly) for the purpose of excluding the possibility that the hacking of electronic voting machines had influenced the recorded outcome. However, statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level". On November 25, 2016, the Obama administration said the results from November 8, "accurately reflect the will of the American people." The following day, the White House released another statement saying, "the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day."

Recount petitions

On November 23, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein launched a public fundraiser to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asserting that the election's outcome had been affected by hacking in those states; Stein did not provide evidence for her claims. Changing the outcome of these three states would make Clinton the winner, and this would require showing that less than 60 000 votes had been counted for Trump which should have been counted for Clinton. Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on November 25, after which Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias stated that their campaign would join Stein's recount efforts in that state and possibly others "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides." Stein subsequently filed for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28, and in Michigan on November 30. Concurrently, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente sought and was granted a partial recount in Nevada that was unrelated to Stein's efforts.

President-elect Donald Trump issued a statement denouncing Stein's Wisconsin recount request saying, "The people have spoken and the election is over." Trump further commented that the recount "is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded." The Trump campaign and Republican Party officials moved to block Stein's three recount efforts through state and federal courts.

U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered a halt to the recount in Michigan on December 7, dissolving a previous temporary restraining order against the Michigan Board of Elections that allowed the recount to continue, stating in his order: "Plaintiffs have not presented evidence of tampering or mistake. Instead, they present speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery – but not actual injury." On December 12, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond rejected an appeal by the Green Party and Jill Stein to force a recount in Pennsylvania, stating that suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" and that granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given the December 13, 2016, federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin recount was allowed to continue as it was nearing completion and had uncovered no significant irregularities.

The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies. While the incomplete Michigan recount did identify some instances of improper ballot handling and possible voter fraud in some Detroit precincts, no evidence of widespread hacking was found, and the overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.

Electoral College lobbying

Intense lobbying (in one case involving claims of harassment and death threats) and grass-roots campaigns have been directed at various GOP electors of the United States Electoral College to convince a sufficient number of them (37) to not vote for Trump, thus precluding a Trump presidency. Members of the Electoral College themselves started a campaign for other members to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68. This group's members may have become faithless electors in the presidential election.

On December 5, former candidate Lawrence Lessig and attorney Laurence Tribe established The Electors Trust under the aegis of EqualCitizens.US to provide pro bono legal counsel as well as a secure communications platform for members of the Electoral College who are regarding a vote of conscience against Trump.

On December 6, Colorado Secretary of State Wayne W. Williams castigated Democratic electors who had filed a lawsuit in Federal court to have the state law binding them to the popular vote (in their case for Hillary Clinton) overturned.

On December 10, ten electors, in an open letter headed by Christine Pelosi to the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, demanded an intelligence briefing in light of Russian interference in the election to help Trump win the presidency. After the letter was released, over 20 additional electors signed it. On December 16, the briefing request was denied.

On December 19, several electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton. A further three electors attempted to vote against Clinton but were replaced or forced to vote again.

The 115th United States Congress officially certified the results on January 6, 2017.

Faithless electors

In the Electoral College vote on December 19, for the first time since 1808, multiple faithless electors voted against their pledged qualified presidential candidate. Five Democrats rebelled in Washington and Hawaii, while two Republicans rebelled in Texas. Two Democratic electors, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado, were replaced after voting for Bernie Sanders and John Kasich respectively. Electors in Maine conducted a second vote after one of its members voted for Sanders; the elector then voted for Clinton.

Likewise, for the first time since 1896, multiple faithless electors voted against the pledged qualified vice presidential candidate.

Of the faithless votes, Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren were the only two to receive more than one; Powell received three electoral votes for President and Warren received two for Vice President. Receiving one valid electoral vote each were Sanders, John Kasich, Ron Paul and Faith Spotted Eagle for President, and Carly Fiorina, Susan Collins, Winona LaDuke and Maria Cantwell for Vice President. Sanders is the first Jewish American to receive an electoral vote for President. LaDuke is the first Green Party member to receive an electoral vote, and Paul is the third member of the Libertarian Party to do so, following the party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees each getting one vote in 1972. It is the first election with faithless electors from more than one political party. The seven people to receive electoral votes for president were the most in a single election since 1796, and more than any other election since the enactment of the Twelfth Amendment in 1804.