Sugary drinks tax

Background

Diabetes is a growing health concern in many developed and developing countries around the world, with 1.5 million deaths directly due to diabetes in 2012 alone. Unlike sugar from food, the sugar from drinks enters the body quickly, which can overload the pancreas and the liver, leading to diabetes and heart disease over time.

Obesity is also a global public and health policy concern, with the percentage of overweight and obese people in many developed and middle income countries rising rapidly. Consumption of added sugar in sugar-sweetened beverages has been positively correlated with high calorie intake, and through it, with excess weight and obesity. Added sugar is a common feature of many processed and convenience foods such as breakfast cereals, chocolate, ice cream, biscuits, yoghurts and drinks produced by retailers such as Starbucks. The ubiquity of sugar-sweetened beverages and their appeal to younger consumers has made their consumption a subject of particular concern by public health professionals. In both the United States and the United Kingdom, sugar sweetened drinks are the top calorie source in teenage diets.

Trends indicate that traditional soda consumption is declining in many developed economies, but growing rapidly in middle income economies such as Vietnam and India. In the United States, the single biggest market for carbonated soft drinks, consumers annual average per capita purchase of soda was 154 litres.

Denmark began taxing soft drinks and juices in the 1930s. More recently, Finland reintroduced an earlier soft drink tax in 2011, while Hungary taxes sugary drinks as part of its 2011 public health product tax, which covers all food products with unhealthy levels of sugar. France introduced a targeted sugar tax on soft drinks in 2012. At a national level similar measures have also been announced in Mexico in 2013 and in the United Kingdom in 2016. In November 2014, Berkeley, California was the first community in the United States to pass a targeted tax on soda.

Tobacco taxes

Proponents of soda taxes cite the success of tobacco taxes worldwide when explaining why they think a soda tax will work. Where the main concern with tobacco is cancer, the main concerns with soda are diabetes and obesity. The opposition to tobacco taxes from the tobacco industry has similarities to the opposition to soda taxes from the soda industry in many ways, including funding research that downplays the health risks of its products.

Denmark

Denmark instituted a soft drink tax in the 1930s (it amounted to 1.64 Danish krone per liter), but announced in 2013 that they were going to abolish it along with an equally unpopular fat tax, with the goal of creating jobs and helping the local economy. Critics claimed that the taxes were notably ineffective; to avoid the fat and sugar taxes, local retailers had complained that Danes simply went to Sweden and Germany, where prices were lower to buy butter, ice cream and soda. Denmark repealed the fat tax in January 2013 and repealed the tax on soft drinks in 2014.

France

France first introduced a targeted tax on sugary drinks at a national level in 2012; following introduction, soft drinks are estimated to be up to 3.5% more expensive. Analysis by the market research firm Canadean found that sales of soft drinks declined in the year following the introduction of the tax, following several years of annual growth. However, the tax applies to both drinks with added sugars and drinks with artificial sweeteners, possibly limiting its effects on the healthfulness of soda products.

Hungary

Hungary's tax, which came into effect in September 2011, has seen 22% of people reduce energy drink consumption and 19% of people reduce their intake of sugary-sweetened soft-drinks.

Ireland

In 2016, Ireland approved a soda tax set to start in April 2018, which is around the same time a similar soda tax takes effect in the United Kingdom.

Mexico

In September 2013, Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto, on his fiscal bill package, proposed a 10% per liter tax on all soft drinks, especially carbonated drinks, with the intention of reducing the number of patients with diabetes and other cardiovascular diseases in Mexico, which has one of the world's highest rates of obesity. According to Mexican government data, in 2011, the treatment for each patient with diabetes cost the Mexican public health care system (the largest of Latin America) around 708 USD per year, with a total cost of 778,427,475 USD in 2010, and with each patient paying only 30 MXN (around 2.31 USD).

In September 2013, soda companies launched a media campaign to discourage the Mexican Chamber of Deputies and Senate from approving the 10% soda tax. They argued that such measure would not help reduce the obesity in Mexico and would leave hundreds of Mexicans working in the sugar cane industry jobless. They also publicly accused New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg of orchestrating the controversial bill from overseas. In late October 2013, the Mexican Senate approved a 1 MXN per litre tax (around 0.08 USD) on sodas, along with a 5% tax on junk food.

According to a 2016 study published in BMJ, annual sales of sodas in Mexico declined 6% in 2014 after the introduction of the soda tax. Monthly sales figures for December 2014 were down 12% on the previous two years. Households with the fewest resources had an average reduction in purchases of 9% in 2014, increasing to 17% by December. Furthermore, purchases of water and non-taxed beverages increased by about 4% on average. Whether the imposition of the tax and the resulting 6% decline in sales of soft drinks, will have any measurable impact on long-term obesity or diabetes trends in Mexico has yet to be determined. The authors of the study urged the Mexican authorities to double the tax to further reduce consumption.

A 2016 study published in PLoS Medicine suggested that a 10% excise tax on soda "could prevent 189,300 new cases of Type 2 diabetes, 20,400 strokes and heart attacks, and 18,900 deaths among adults 35 to 94 years old" over a ten-year period. The study also included that "the reductions in diabetes alone could yield savings in projected healthcare costs of $983 million."

Criticism

There is limited but growing evidence that the sugar tax reduces consumption of heavily sugared products.

Norway

Norway has had a generalized sugar tax measure on refined sugar products since 1922, introduced to boost state income rather than reducing sugar consumption. Non-alcoholic beverages have since been separated from the general tax, and in 2017, the tax for sugary drinks was set to 3.34 kroner per litre.

South Africa

A sugar-sweetened beverages tax for 2017 was proposed in the 2016 South African national government budget.

United Kingdom

In the 2016 United Kingdom budget, the British government announced the introduction of a sugar tax, the Soft Drinks Industry Levy. Planned to come into effect in 2018, beverage manufacturers will be taxed according to the volume of sugar-sweetened beverages they produce or import. The total level of the tax has yet to be announced, but the measure is estimated to generate an additional £520 million a year in tax revenue which will be spent, in England, on funding for sport in UK primary schools.

It is proposed that pure fruit juices, milk-based drinks and the smallest producers will not be taxed. The tax will be imposed at the point of production or importation, in two bands. It is expected that total sugar content above 5g per 100 millilitres will be taxed at 18p per litre and drinks above 8g per 100 millilitres at 24p per litre. It is expected that some manufacturers will reduce sugar content in order to avoid the taxation.

Notable research on effect of excess sugar in modern diets in the United Kingdom includes the work of Professor John Yudkin with his book called, "Pure, White and Deadly: The Problem of Sugar" first published in 1972. With regard to a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, a study published in the British Medical Journal on 31 October 2013, postulated that a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages would reduce obesity in the United Kingdom rates by about 1.3%, and concluded that taxing sugar-sweetened beverages was "a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults."

Criticism

The decision to impose the tax has been criticized by UK-based drinks producers and was described by Member of Parliament Will Quince as, "patronizing, regressive and the nanny state at its worst."

Professor Robert Lustig of the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, stated that the UK tax measure may not go far enough and that, "juice should be taxed the same way as soda because from a metabolic standpoint juice is the same as soda." The UK sugar tax proposal announced by the government in early 2016 is narrow in scope and does not target pure fruit juices and milk-based drinks.

A study by Glasgow University, which sampled 132,000 adults, found that focusing on sugar in isolation misleads consumers as reducing fat intake is also crucial to reducing obesity.

United States

The United States does not have a nationwide soda tax, but a couple of its cities have passed their own tax and the U.S. has seen a growing debate around taxing soda in various cities, states and even in congress in recent years.

Medical costs related to obesity in the United States alone were estimated to be $147 billion a year in 2009. In the same year, the American Heart Association reported that the soft drinks and sugar sweetened beverages are the largest contributors of added sugars in Americans' diets. Added sugars are sugars and syrups added to foods during processing or preparation and sugars and syrups added after preparation. Excessive intake of added sugars, as opposed to naturally occurring sugars, is implicated in the rise in obesity.

American localities with a soda tax

Philadelphia and Berkeley are the first two cities to pass a tax on sugary drinks in the U.S. Berkeley's tax of 1 cent/oz of sugary drink has seen a decline in soda consumption by more than 20 percent. Philadelphia's tax of 1.5 cents/oz took effect on January 1, 2017.

Berkeley, California

The Measure D soda tax was approved by 76% of Berkeley voters on 4 November 2014, and took effect on 1 January 2015 as the first such tax in the United States. The measure imposes a tax of one cent per ounce on the distributors of specified sugar-sweetened beverages such as soda, sports drinks, energy drinks, and sweetened ice teas but excluding milk-based beverages, meal replacement drink, diet sodas, fruit juice, and alcohol. The revenue generated will enter the general fund of the City of Berkeley. A similar measure in neighboring San Francisco received 54% of the vote, but fell short of the supermajority required to pass. In August 2015, researchers found that average prices for beverages covered under the law rose by less than half of the tax amount. For Coke and Pepsi, 22 percent of the tax was passed on to consumers, with the balance paid by vendors. UC Berkeley researchers found a higher pass-through rate for the tax: 47% of the tax was passed-through to higher prices of sugar-sweetened beverages overall with 69% being passed-through to higher soda prices. In August 2016, a UC Berkeley study showed a 21% drop in the drinking of soda and sugary beverages in low-income neighborhoods in its city.

Philadelphia

Democratic Philadelphia mayor Jim Kenney proposed a city-wide soda tax that would raise the price of soda at three cents per ounce. At the time, it was the biggest soda tax proposal in the United States. Kenney promoted using tax revenue to fund universal pre-K, jobs, and development projects, which he predicted would raise $400 million over five years, all the while reducing sugar intake by decreasing the demand for sugary beverages Kenney's soda tax proposal was brought to the national spotlight and divided key members of the Democratic Party. Presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders argued in an op-ed that the tax would hurt the poor. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, said that she was "very supportive" of the idea. The American Beverage Association, funded by soda companies and distributors, ran local television, radio, and newspaper advertisements against the idea, claiming that the tax would disproportionately hurt the poor. The American Heart Association, on the other hand, was supportive of the tax.

The Philadelphia City Council approved a 1.5-cents-per-ounce tax on 16 June 2016. As part of the compromise legislation that passed, the tax is also imposed on artificially sweetened beverages, such as diet soda. The law became effective on 1 January 2017. It was reported after two months of the tax that Philadelphia supermarkets and beverage distributors are planning layoffs because sugary beverage sales are down between 30 to 50 percent.

After the tax took effect, Kenney said it was "wrong" and "misleading" for businesses to pass the tax on to their customers in the form of higher soda prices. In February 2017, soda manufacturers and retailers announced sales declines of 30-50% in Philadelphia and announced job cuts and layoffs, while the tax was projected to raise about $2.7 million per month, far below the estimate of $7.6 million per month. Kenny characterized the layoffs as evidence of greed among manufacturers.

In March 2017, Pepsi announced plans to lay off between 80 and 100 employees, and blamed this on the tax. The Philadelphia Inquirer quoted city spokeswoman Lauren Hitt as saying, "The soda industry sunk to a new low today... They are literally holding hostage the jobs of hard-working people in their battle to overturn the tax. Pepsi reported nearly $35 billion in gross income and $6 billion in profit last year.... The idea that they can afford to do that but ‘must lay off workers’ should make every Philadelphian very skeptical of whether these layoffs are actually due to the tax." However, the same article countered Hitt's comment about Pepsi's $6 billion in profit by reporting, "The layoffs will occur at plants in North Philadelphia, South Philadelphia, and Wilmington. The plants are run as independent businesses required to report profits and losses to the company."

San Francisco

A one-cent-per-ounce soda tax (Prop V) passed with over 61% of the vote on 8 November 2016 and will apply to distributors of sugary beverages on 1 January 2018. The soda industry spent almost $20 million in its unsuccessful push to defeat the soda tax initiative, a record-breaking amount for a San Francisco ballot initiative.

In 2014, the first referendum on a soda tax, Proposition E, was voted down by San Francisco; the 2014 referendum received the support of 55 percent of voters, short of the two-thirds required for a referendum directing money to a specific item (the referendum proposed directing the revenue raised to children's physical education and nutrition programs, and in San Francisco such earmarking requires a two-thirds vote to pass). In that referendum campaign, the soda industry spent about $10 million in opposition to the proposed tax.

Oakland

A one-cent-per-ounce soda tax (Measure HH) passed with over 60% of the vote on 8 November 2016. The tax goes into effect on 1 July 2017.

Albany, California

A one-cent-per-ounce soda tax (Prop O1) passed with over 70% of the vote on 8 November 2016.

Boulder, Colorado

A two-cents-per-ounce soda tax (Measure 2H) passed with 54% of the vote on 8 November 2016.

Cook County, Illinois

A one-cent-per-ounce soda tax passed on 10 November 2016 by a 9-8 vote of the Cook County Board of Commissioners, which includes Chicago and has a population of 5.2 million. This will be the most populous jurisdiction with a soda tax in the U.S. after it starts in July 2017.

Seattle, Washington

In February 2017, the Mayor of Seattle proposed a two-cents per ounce tax on sugary drinks.

Scientific studies

Coca-Cola has been under fire since 2015 when emails revealed that funding for scientific studies sought to influence research to be more favorable to soda. Research funded by soda companies are 34 times more likely to find soda has no significant health impacts on obesity or diabetes.

Taxing soda can lead to a reduction in overall consumption, according to a scientific study published in the Archives of Internal Medicine in March 2010. The study found that a 10 percent tax on soda led to a 7 percent reduction in calories from soft drinks. These researchers believe that an 18 percent tax on these foods could cut daily intake by 56 calories per person, resulting in a weight loss of 5 pounds (2 kg) per person per year. The study followed 5,115 young adults ages 18 to 30 from 1985 to 2006.

A 2010 study published in the medical journal Health Affairs found that if taxes were about 18 cents on the dollar, they would make a significant difference in consumption.

Research from Duke University and the National University of Singapore released in December 2010 tested larger taxes and determined that a 20 percent and 40 percent taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages would largely not affect calorie intake because people switch to untaxed, but equally caloric, beverages. Kelly Brownell, a proponent of soda taxes, reacted by stating that “[t]he fact is that nobody has been able to see how people will really respond under these conditions.” Similarly, a 2010 study concluded that while people would drink less soda as a result of a soda tax, they would also compensate for this reduction by switching to other high-calorie beverages. In response to these arguments, the American Public Health Association released a statement in 2012 in which they argued that "Even if individuals switch to 100% juice or chocolate milk, this would be an improvement, as those beverages contribute some nutrients to the diet."

A 2011 study in the journal Preventive Medicine concluded that "a modest tax on sugar-sweetened beverages could both raise significant revenues and improve public health by reducing obesity". It has been used by the Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity at Yale to estimate revenue from a soda tax, depending on the state, year and tax rate.

A 2012 study by Y. Claire Wang, also in the journal Health Affairs, estimates that a penny per ounce tax on sugared beverages could prevent 2.4 million cases of diabetes per year, 8,000 strokes, and 26,000 premature deaths over 10 years.

In 2012, just before the city of Richmond began voting on a soda tax, a study was presented at a conference held by the American Public Health Association regarding the potential effects of such a tax in California. The study concluded that, given that soda's price elasticity is such that taxing it would reduce consumption by 10–20 percent, that this reduction "...is projected to reduce diabetes incidence by 2.9–5.6% and CHD by 0.6–1.2%."

A 2013 study in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics concluded that a 0.5-cent-per-ounce tax on soft drinks would reduce consumption, but "increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution," in line with the Duke University study mentioned above.

Economics of the tax

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reports that a targeted tax on sugar in soda could generate $14.9 billion in the first year alone. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that three-cent-per-ounce tax would generate over $24 billion over four years. Some tax measures call for using the revenue collected to pay for relevant health needs: improving diet, increasing physical activity, obesity prevention, nutrition education, advancing healthcare reform, etc. Another area to which the revenue raised by a soda tax might go, as suggested by Mike Rayner of the United Kingdom, is to subsidize healthier foods like fruits and vegetables.

Proposals

There have been a number of proposed taxes on sugary beverages, including:

Public support

A 2016 poll by Morning Consult-Vox finds Americans split on their support of a soda tax. Attitudes seem to have shifted a lot since 2013 when a poll concluded that "respondents were opposed to government taxes on sugary drinks and candy by a more than 2-to-1 margin." In California, however, support for a tax has been high for a few years. According to a Field Poll conducted in 2012, "Nearly 3 out of 5 California voters would support a special fee on soft drinks to fight childhood obesity." Support for a soda tax in New York was higher when pollsters say the money will go towards health care. A Quinnipiac University poll released in April 2010 found that New Yorkers opposed a state tax on soda of one penny per ounce by a 35-point margin, but opposition dropped to a margin of one point when respondents were told the money would go towards health care. A Thompson Reuters poll released in the same month found that 51 percent of Americans opposed a soda tax, while 33 percent supported one.

Lobbying

Fighting the creation of soft drink taxes, the American Beverage Association, the largest U.S. trade organization for soft drink bottlers, has spent considerable money lobbying Congress. The Association's annual lobbying spending rose from about $391,000 to more than $690,000 from 2003 to 2008. And, in the 2010 election cycle, its lobbying grew to $8.67 million. These funds helped to pay for 25 lobbyists at seven different lobbying firms.

An industry group called "Americans Against Food Taxes," backed by juice maker Welch's, soft drink maker PepsiCo Inc, the American Beverage Association, the Corn Refiners Association, McDonald's Corporation and Burger King Holdings Inc used national advertising and conducted lobbying to oppose these taxes. The group has characterized the soda tax as a regressive tax, which would unfairly burden the poor

Various Island Nations and Territories

Island nations and territories have been successful in passing soda taxes. Just like with tobacco taxes, smaller communities are often the first to pass a new type of tax.

Barbados

Barbados passed a soda tax in 2015.

Fiji

Fiji has an import tax and an excise tax on soda.

French Polynesia

French Polynesia implemented taxes on soft drinks in 2002.

Mauritius

Mauritius passed a soda tax in 2013.

Nauru

Nauru implemented a soda tax in 2007.

Samoa

Samoa passed a soda tax in 1984.

St Helena

On 21 March 2014, the government of the island of St Helena, a British Overseas Territory in the South Atlantic, announced that it would be introducing an additional import duty of 75 pence per litre on sugar-sweetened carbonated drinks with more than 15 grams of sugar per litre. The measure was introduced on 22 May 2014 as part of a number of measures to tackle obesity on the island and the resulting high incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Tonga

Tonga has a soda tax.