Principal ideas Amara's Law | Name Roy Amara | |
Born Roy Charles Amara
7 April 1925 ( 1925-04-07 ) Died December 31, 2007, Portola Valley, California, United States Books Business Planning for an Uncertain Future: Scenarios & Strategies | ||
Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.
Amara's law
His statement, paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely, is a computing adage which has become known as Amara's law and states:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
This law has been described as encouraging people to think about the long-term effects of technology, and has been described as best illustrated by the hype cycle, characterized by the "peak of inflated expectations" followed by the "trough of disillusionment". The law has been used in explaining cyber-attacks and nanotechnology.