Risk factors for genocide

Governance

The regime type of the government is indicator on whether the nation is in danger of genocide or not. An anocratic, or a transitional government, is the government that is in the most danger while a full monarchy, in the most stable. The nation also has a higher risk if there is state legitimacy deficit, which would include high corruption, disregard for constitutional norms, or mass protests. If a state structure is weak and provides poor basic services for the citizens, restricted the rule of law, or has a lack of civilian protection, it also creates a higher risk and could become unstable. If there is identity-based polar factionalism or systematic state-led discrimination through exclusionary ideology, or political contentious along identity line this can create a divide of people in the nation creating different ranks and violence amongst the civilians.

Conflict History

A state is more likely to experience genocide or mass atrocity if they have a history of identity-related tensions, otherwise known as a tendency of othering, or if the state had prior genocides/politicides, this is because a government may already have the previous weapons, strategies, and power since the last genocide. They are also aware of how much damage they can do once more if they have gotten away in the past. Also if the state has had a record of serious violations of international human rights laws, as the country is more sensitized to the violence and may be less aware of what is happening around them. Other conflict histories that put a state at risk are past cultural traumas that have hurt the core social identity of the state, or if the people have been known to have legacy of group grievances or vengeance. The more conflict a country has had in the past can make them more unstable and more at risk for genocide.

Economic Conditions

States with low levels of economy development are more likely to have problems because it creates low opportunity cost for mass violence, as the citizen’s lives aren't valued as much as in an economy that has high levels. States that practice economic discrimination, make it so one group of people have the most economic opportunity, forcing the other group to be unemployed and or if they have horizontal economic inequalities, which is when a country’s economy is based on a small number of opportunities, products. Those conditions with the addition of high unemployment rates, foreign debt, and informal economies such as growing black markets a country is at risk of its economic conditions playing into their risk factors for Genocide.

Social Fragmentation

Social fragmentation can by five major sub categories; identity-based social divisions, demographic pressures, unequal access to basic goods and services, gender inequalities, and political instability. Identity-based social divisions, constitute of differential access to power, wealth, statues, and resources, meaning that certain people have more access to what the need to live than others, or when a state practices hate speech, like RTLMC in Rwanda. Demographic pressures can be experienced in a state has a high population density, massive movements of refugees or internal displaced peoples, or a male youth bulge, which means that there is a high male population with nothing really to do. Unequal access to basic goods and services, which can be shown by high infant mortality rates, as mothers and children would not be getting the proper care that they needed to grow and be healthy. Gender inequalities, are shown in rate of violence against women, as these are normally an indicator of how the country views their women, and if it is a low rate they normally see them more as equals. Political instability can be revealed by hurtful regime changes, threats of armed conflict, proportions of populations that are armed, and where the country is in the world, and if it’s neighboring countries have conflict it has been known to spill into the neighboring regions.
If a nation has one or more of these risk factors it doesn't mean that they will have a Genocide but they are simply additive factors that when put together can be used to help predict and defuse a tens, or dangerous, situation. There is no guarantee or formula that allows you to predict the future but instead thing to help us learn from the past to help protect the future.

UN risk assessment “Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes”

The United Nations have their list of 14 risk factors for atrocity crimes with multiple indicators for each factor. These risk factors include:

1. Situation of armed conflict or other forms of instability
2. Record of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law
3. Weakness of State structures
4. Motives or incentives
5. Capacity to commit atrocity crimes
6. Absence of mitigating factors
7. Enabling circumstances or preparatory action
8. Triggering factors
9. Intergroup tensions or patterns of discrimination against protected groups
10. Signs of an intent to destroy in whole or in part a protected group
11. Signs of a widespread or systematic attack against any civilian population
12. Signs of a plan or policy to attack any civilian population
13. Serious threats to those protected under IHL
14. Serious threats to humanitarian or peacekeeping operations

The UN is different in that it separates specific factors that lead to different crimes. Such that “serious threats to humanitarian or peacekeeping operators” will lead to war crimes while “Intergroup tensions or patterns of discrimination against protected groups” [under Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide] is a risk factor to genocide.

Fund for Peace’s Analysis: “Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST)”

The Fund for Peace non-profit organization, has written a conflict assessment framework manual to help “meet security challenges stemming from weak and failing states.” CAST has 12 pressure indicators including:

1. Demographic pressures
2. Refugees and internally displaced people
3. Group grievance
4. Human flight and brain drain
5. Uneven economic development
6. Economic decline
7. State Legitimacy
8. Public Services
9. Human rights and rule of law
10. Security Apparatus
11. Factionalized Elites
12. External intervention

Along with each pressure indicator is a list of scores indicating when that indicator is becoming a serious risk factor. A score of 0 means there is no risk at all score of 10 would be a serous problem. Also included in the CAST is a guide to assessing the capacities of the state. The capacities are leadership, military, police, judiciary and civil service.

European Commission: checklist for root causes of conflict

The European Commission has come up with their own risk factors to countries with possible atrocities coming in the near future. The eight risk factors those chose are: 8 risk factors

1. Legitimacy Deficit
2. Restrictions to the rule of law
3. Violations on fundamental rights
4. Weak civil society and media
5. Tensions between communities/ Absence of dispute-resolution mechanisms
6. Poor economic management
7. Socio-economic regional inequalities
8. Geopolitical instability

Each risk factor has other multiple subsections that can point to more specific events that can be seen as potential risk factors for conflict. Along with the subsections, there are examples of what possible objectives could be in order to improve that specific risk factor.

Dr. Gregory Stanton: "Ten Stages of Genocide"

The International Alliance to End Genocide published Stanton’s list of ten stages of genocide, which include, in this order:

1. Classification
2. Symbolization
3. Discrimination
4. Dehumanization
5. Organization
6. Polarization
7. Preparation
8. Persecution
9. Extermination
10. Denial

These stages are can be seen with every genocide so far and can be used as red flags for future ones. Each stage has an explanation of what it is and examples of it. This list of risk factors has been used by the US State Department.

Dr. Barbara Harff

Harff comes up with a list of seven risk factors for genocide and politicide:

1. Recent changes in Geno/pol Hazards
2. Current Instability
3. Contention re Elite Ethnicity
4. Regime Type
5. Targets of Systematic Discrimination
6. Exclusionary Ideology
7. Past Geno/Politicides

Barbara Harff uses these risk factors and gives each potential country at risk a hazard ratio score along with each onset of genocide. This is a more complicated way of assessing the risks of other countries, but having a number is more relatable to assessing risk.