Three main alternatives are generally presented to Puerto Rican voters in status plebiscites: full independence, maintenance or enhancement of commonwealth status, and full statehood into the American Union. The exact expectations for each of these status formulas are a matter of debate by a given position's adherents and detractors. Puerto Ricans have proposed positions that modify the alternatives above, such as (a) indemnified independence with phased-out US subsidy, (b) expanded political but not fiscal autonomy, and (c) statehood with a gradual phasing out of federal tax exemption. Most experts downplay the importance of all recent plebiscites. For example, Roberto Barreto wrote in the Marxist International Socialist Review that "all the recent plebiscite proposals have been colonial ones, leaving the final decision in the hands of Congress. By defining the plebiscite as 'non-binding,' the electoral exercise, far from being an act of self-determination, turns into a mere survey. These plebiscites are essentially opinion polls to be considered or ignored by the body that reserves for itself all decision-making powers, the U.S. Congress."
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Table summary
The following table summarizes the results of Puerto Rico's plebiscites so far.
The exact significance of referendum results is debated by local observers. The 1967 results showed strong support for maintaining the commonwealth, but this victory was followed by the first loss in twenty years of governorship by the Popular Democratic Party, the main supporter of the commonwealth association. This occurred in part because of bickering leadership. The 1993 results appear to protest the ideas or forum used to change status as imposed by the then-ruling Popular Democratic Party; the demands were controversial because there was no assurance, and great doubt, that they would be accepted by Congress. The 1998 results, where "none of the above", which was the PPD sponsored choice was the winner, protested criteria set forth by the then ruling New Progressive Party of Puerto Rico.
The 1967 plebiscite
In 1967, the Legislative Assembly tested the political interests of the Puerto Rican people by passing a local Plebiscite Act that allowed a vote on the status of Puerto Rico. This constituted the first plebiscite by the Legislature for a choice on three status options. At 60.4% percent of the vote, the commonwealth option won the majority vote. Following this plebiscite, efforts in the 1970s to enact legislation to address the status issue died in congressional committees.
The 1991 Constitutional Amendment Referendum
The 1991 Referendum on the proposed "Claim to Democratic Rights" asked the voters to approve the addition of an amendment to the Puerto Rican constitution. The wording of this amendment would guarantee:
Passage of this referendum would have constituted a claim for the government of Puerto Rico to establish these rights in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico constitution and petition the President and Congress for these rights, but it was rejected by the people of Puerto Rico on a vote of 660,264 (53%) against to 559,259 (44.9%) in favor.
As per the Congressional Research Service report, despite PDP and PIP support, a majority (53%) voted against the proposal. Some contended that the decision to schedule the referendum represented an indirect step to block statehood. Others perceived the rejection to reflect dissatisfaction with the governor. Another explanation offered for the vote was that some cast their ballots out of fear that a “yes” vote would result in a further degradation of federal benefits and the loss of U.S. citizenship.
The 1993 plebiscite
A subsequent plebiscite was organized by the Puerto Rican government in 1993 (in which the Congress played a more substantial role) where, at 48.6%, the commonwealth status managed to win a plurality, though not a majority vote. The current political status (status quo) failed to receive the majority support it sought.
U.S. Congress played a more substantial role in the 1993 plebiscite than it did in the 1967 plebiscite. In the 1992 election campaign, the PNP candidate for governor urged, and the legislature agreed, that a plebiscite on status be held “after the U.S. Congress failed to approve” status legislation. Since definitions on the ballot were formulated by the political parties themselves, neither Congress nor executive branch officials intervened to ensure that the alternatives presented to the voters would pass constitutional muster. The disconnect between the ballot option and constitutional requirements was summarized in the House report accompanying legislation introduced three years after the plebiscite, as follows: The 1993 definition of “Commonwealth” failed to present the voters with status options consistent with full self-government, and it was misleading to propose to the voters an option which was unconstitutional and unacceptable to the Congress in almost every respect. No option on the ballot in 1993 received a majority of votes. Some contend that statehood may have suffered the greatest loss, considering the governor and the legislature were members of the PNP and the plebiscite itself was a major campaign promise for the governor. Others may argue that PDP advocates did not achieve a final victory in the 1993 vote because Congress rejected the commonwealth option presented on ballots. In the end, Commonwealth status was again upheld in the 1993 plebiscite.
The 1998 plebiscite
In the last locally organized plebiscite held in Puerto Rico, which took place on December 13, 1998, the current status quo (Commonwealth status) received less than one tenth of one percent (0.06%) of the total vote. The majority vote went to a "none of the above" option which received 50.3%. This was followed by the statehood option which received 46.7%. The option of independence received 2.5% of the vote.
The 2012 plebiscite
On November 6, 2012, a fourth status plebiscite took place. This one consisted of two questions. The first question asked voters whether they wanted to maintain the existing commonwealth status under the territorial clause of the U.S. Constitution or whether they preferred a nonterritorial option. The second question asked voters which would be the preferred alternative if a non-territorial option was wanted and gave voters to choose between three non-territorial alternatives: statehood, independence, or free association.
Ten days after the 2012 plebiscite, on November 16, 2012, the Electoral Commission reported that 54 percent voted "no" on preserving Puerto Rico's territorial status, the first part of the referendum. On the second part, where voters were asked to choose between statehood, independence and free association, 61.2 percent chose statehood, while 33.3 preferred free association and 5.5 percent voted for independence. However, these results have been challenged by observers who note that nearly 500,000 blank ballots were ignored in the reporting by the pro-statehood PNP, contrary to previous Puerto Rico court rulings of Sánchez y Colón v. ELA, 134 DPR 445 (1993); and 134 DPR 503 (1993) and Suárez Cáceres v. CEE, 176 DPR 31 (2009), both of which affirmed that blank ballots should be considered as "none of the above" when that option was not offered on the ballot. Following these judicial precedents the results would reflect that statehood was favored by 44.4% of the ballots cast, while 55.6% were opposed On December 11, 2012, the pro-statehood 16th Legislative Assembly of Puerto Rico passed a concurrent resolution "[t]o request the President and the Congress of the United States to ... begin the process to admit Puerto Rico to the Union as a State."
President Obama pledged to respect the will of the people of Puerto Rico "if there was a clear majority." A December 2012 statement clarifying the Obama administration’s position on the status plebiscite results stated, "the people of Puerto Rico want the issue of status resolved, and a majority chose statehood." A previous White House statement had said, "Now is the time for Congress to act and the administration will work with them [with Congress] on that effort so that the people of Puerto Rico can determine their own future." On April 10, 2013, President Obama moved on his promise to respect the will of the people of Puerto Rico in his Fiscal Year 2014 Budget proposal to Congress, asking for "$2.5 million for the Puerto Rico Elections Commission to be used for voter education and the plebiscite."
On May 14, 2013, the heavily pro-Commonwealth 17th Legislative Assembly of Puerto Rico approved a concurrent resolution that stated, in part, "On November 6, 2012, a plesbicite took place in Puerto Rico concurrent with the general elections whose results were inconclusive since none of the options garnished a majority of votes." On the next day, May 15, 2013, the pro-statehood Representative Pedro Pierluisi introduced the Puerto Rico Status Resolution Act to the House of Representatives asking Congress to admit Puerto Rico as the 51st State.
June 2017 plebiscite
The previous plebiscites provided voters with three options: statehood, free association, and independence. The Puerto Rican status referendum, 2017 will offer only two options: Statehood and Independence/Free Association. If the majority vote for the latter, a second vote will be held to determine the preference: full independence as a nation or associated free state status with independence but with a "free and voluntary political association" between Puerto Rico and the United States. The specifics of the association agreement would be detailed in the Compact of Free Association that would be negotiated between the U.S. and Puerto Rico. That document might cover topics such as the role of the US military in Puerto Rico, the use of the US currency, free trade between the two entities, and whether Puerto Ricans would be U.S. citizens.
Governor Ricardo Rosselló is strongly in favor of statehood to help develop the economy and help to "solve our 500-year-old colonial dilemma ... Colonialism is not an option .... It’s a civil rights issue ... 3.5 million citizens seeking an absolute democracy," he told the news media. Benefits of statehood include an additional $10 billion per year in federal funds, the right to vote in presidential elections, higher Social Security and Medicare benefits, and a right for its government agencies and municipalities to file for bankruptcy. The latter is currently prohibited.
Statehood might be useful as a means of dealing with the financial crisis, since it would allow for bankruptcy and the relevant protection. According to the Government Development Bank, this might be the only solution to the debt crisis. Congress has the power to vote to allow Chapter 9 protection without the need for statehood, but in late 2015 there was very little support in the House for this concept.
At approximately the same time as the referendum, Puerto Rico's legislators are also expected to vote on a bill that would allow the Governor to draft a state constitution and hold elections to choose senators and representatives to the federal Congress. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum or the vote on the bill, action by the United States Congress would be necessary to implement changes to the status of Puerto Rico under the Territorial Clause of the United States Constitution.
Congressionally mandated plebiscites
No congressionally mandated plebiscite has ever been held, and average voter turnout in the locally enacted status votes has been about 10% lower than in general elections. However, various bills have been introduced in Congress to effect a plebiscite backed by Congress and to which Congress would be committed.