Proposed second Scottish independence referendum

Scottish independence referendum, 2014

The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence saw Scotland vote to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK), with 55.3% voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country and 44.7% voting in favour. Uncertainty over Scotland's European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote. The British government and some mainstream political parties argued that remaining in the UK was the only way for Scotland to remain part of the EU. The Scottish Government's official publication on the independence referendum stated that "It is the view of the current Scottish Government that a referendum is a once-in-a-generation opportunity", a point reiterated by the SNP's then-leader, Alex Salmond, a few days before the vote. Three months later, Salmond reversed the position, highlighting the UK's EU referendum as a factor. The UK government had also portrayed the independence referendum as once-in-a-generation.

Though the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country was voted down in 2014, the referendum did result in more responsibility being passed on to the Scottish Government. The latest move in the devolution process that began in 1999, the UK Government's passage of the Scotland Bill in 2015 increased the devolved powers held by the Scottish Government.

Scottish Parliament election, 2016

In their manifesto for the 2016 Scottish elections, the SNP stipulated conditions under which they would seek a second independence referendum.

We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.

The SNP was re-elected in the 2016 election, winning 63 seats in the 129-seat chamber, although the result meant that they no longer held an overall majority. The pro-independence Scottish Green Party won 6 seats, meaning that pro-independence MSPs maintained a majority.

United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

In a referendum held on 23 June 2016 all 32 council areas in Scotland voted by a majority for the UK to remain a member of the EU. 62% of Scottish voters voted to remain a member of the EU, with 38% voting to leave. Overall 52% of voters in the UK voted to leave the EU, with 48% voting to remain. Majorities in England and Wales were in favour of leaving the EU.

In response to the result, on 24 June 2016, the Scottish Government said officials would begin planning for a second independence referendum. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was "clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" and that Scotland had "spoken decisively" with a "strong, unequivocal" vote to remain in the European Union. Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland could be taken out of the EU "against its will."

Procedure

See also, for comparison Scottish independence referendum, 2014#Administration

Scottish Independence Referendum Bill

On 16 October 2016, the Scottish Government published a draft bill that would enable a second Scottish independence referendum to occur, after receiving legislative consent. The Scottish Independence Referendum Bill draft is largely similar to its sister act of 2013, and has been put out for consultation by the government to allow members of the public to convey their views on the wording and procedures of the bill. The bill will require the consent of the UK government to be made legally binding.

See also, Scottish independence#Legality and legitimacy

Details

Following the EU referendum, Nicola Sturgeon stated that the Scottish Government, the devolved executive of Scotland, had agreed to draft legislation to allow a second independence referendum to take place.

As the constitution is a 'reserved' matter under the Scotland Act 1998, for a future referendum on Scottish independence to be binding under UK law, it would need to receive the consent of the British Parliament to take place. A referendum would not be legally binding under UK law if the consent of the UK Parliament is not given. Under the Sewell Convention of the 1998 act however, the Scottish Parliament could approve a "consultative referendum" on the subject of independence, which would enable the referendum taking place without the approval of the British Parliament. Under this convention, the Scottish Government is authorized to issue a "legislative consent memorandum," which would signal to the United Kingdom Parliament that Scottish Government has deemed it necessary to alter a law enacted by the UK Government or to change the scope of the devolved government's powers in some manner.

Timeline

Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated, on 26 June 2016, that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another [independence] referendum there will be one", and added "Could there be another referendum? The answer to that question is yes. Should there be another referendum? I believe the answer to that question is no."

On 13 October 2016, Sturgeon announced that an Independence Referendum Bill will be published for consultation the following week.

On 13 March 2017, Sturgeon announced she would seek Scottish Parliament approval to negotiate with the UK Government for a Section 30 order enabling a second independence referendum.

On 16 March 2017, ahead of the scheduled debate, Theresa May responded by broadcasting a message where she said that "now is not the time" for a second referendum on Scottish independence, as it would be unclear what the people of Scotland would be voting for. Ruth Davidson later appeared at a press conference in Edinburgh and stated her position that "we will maintain that it should not take place when there is no clear public and political consent for it to happen".

The debate began on 22 March 2017, but following that day's Westminster terrorist attack, it was suspended before a vote could take place. The vote was subsequently rescheduled for 28 March, a day before Theresa May was scheduled to trigger Article 50.

Scotland's future relations with the EU and EEA

Following the EU referendum result, Sturgeon said she would communicate to all EU member states that Scotland had voted to stay in the EU. An emergency Scottish cabinet meeting on 25 June 2016 agreed that the Scottish Government would seek to enter negotiations with the EU and its member states, to explore "options to protect Scotland's place in the EU." On 28 June 2016, Sturgeon said that "independence [...] is not my starting point in these discussions. My starting point is to protect our relationship with the EU."

After a summit of EU leaders on 29 June 2016, Sturgeon held meetings with some EU officials. She raised the possibility of parts of the UK remaining within the EU, or for these areas to have special arrangements with the EU, after the UK leaves. David Edward, a former justice of the European Court of Justice, suggested that these arrangements would relate to policy areas that have been devolved to Scotland.

Sturgeon also met with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who commented that "I will listen carefully to what the first minister will tell me... but we don't have the intention, neither Donald Tusk nor myself, to interfere in an inner British process that is not our duty and this is not our job." Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party Group, and Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, indicated that they were supportive of Scotland remaining an EU member. Gunther Krichbaum, head of the Bundestag's Committee for EU Affairs, made supportive comments about Scotland becoming a member state of the EU.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said: "[be] very clear Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union". He also stated his opposition to the EU negotiating with "anyone other than the government of United Kingdom" and that "if the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves." Similarly, the French President, François Hollande, stated: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".

The Scottish European and External Affairs Committee held an evidence session on 30 June 2016, asking a panel of four experts (Dr Kirsty Hughes of Friends of Europe, Prof Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of the Queen Mary School of Law at the University of London, Sir David Edward and Prof Drew Scott of the University of Edinburgh) what they felt was the best way to secure the Scottish-EU relationship. Hughes stated that "the simplest and most obvious way would be to be an independent state and transition in and stay in the EU", Douglas-Scott said that "Legally there are precedents. [...] But there were also political difficulties", referring to Catalonia in Spain. Edward believed "Scotland makes quite a good fit with Iceland and Norway", referring to the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association, while Scott hinted that Scotland could be a successor state, meaning the rest of the UK would leave but Scotland would retain its seat.

The new UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with Sturgeon on 15 July 2016 in Edinburgh, when May stated that she was "willing to listen to options" for Scotland, although she later stated that some options were "impracticable". Sturgeon then publicly stated that she had five tests for any future arrangements. The IPPR thinktank stated that Scottish unionists needed to provide options for Scotland, if they wished to retain the British union. The Scottish Labour Party published an 'Action Plan' in July 2016, focusing on the economy.

In November 2016, Sturgeon confirmed to members of the Scottish Parliament that the Scottish Government was considering European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and European Economic Area (EEA) models in order to "protect [Scotland's] place in the single market" of Europe even if the United Kingdom as a whole does leave in a "hard Brexit".

Legislative consent in disapplying EU law

The Scotland Act 1998 empowers the Scottish Parliament to legislate in policy areas devolved to Scotland, but one of its clauses obliges the Scottish Parliament to ensure its legislation is compatible with European law. For the UK to completely leave the EU, it would need to remove that obligation. If the UK Parliament wishes to legislate on policy areas devolved to Scotland, or if it wishes to amend the powers devolved to Scotland, by convention it needs the Scottish Parliament to pass a "legislative consent motion". On 26 June 2016, Sturgeon said she would ask the Scottish Parliament to withhold consent if she thought it was not in Scotland's interests. Giving evidence to a House of Lords committee before the EU referendum, David Edward suggested the consent of the Scottish Parliament would be needed for this legislation.

Media reports suggested this might give the Scottish Parliament a veto over UK withdrawal from the EU, but under the Scotland Act 1998 the UK Parliament could ultimately override the "veto" as it is based only on parliamentary convention. Alternatively, the UK Parliament could choose to disregard the obligation for the Scottish Parliament to observe EU law. The then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers, said that the UK Government would consult with the devolved governments and noted that it was for the UK Parliament to decide whether to leave the EU by repealing the European Communities Act 1972. In its ruling in the case brought by Gina Miller regarding the UK Government's authority to invoke Article 50, the UK Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the devolved governments did not have a veto as the convention was unenforceable in law. Speaking later that week the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell, said that the bill needed to invoke Article 50 would not require consent, but also said he was working under the assumption that the "Great Repeal Bill" needed to remove European legislation from UK statutes would require co-operation from the devolved bodies.

Responses to the prospect of a referendum

Responses by politicians to the possibility of a second referendum have been pro-independence (and pro-referendum), pro-union, or pro-federalism.

See also, for comparison Scottish independence referendum, 2014#Responses

In support of a referendum

Former SNP First Minister Alex Salmond in June 2016 said the Brexit vote was a "significant and material change" in Scotland's position within the United Kingdom, and that he was certain the Scottish National Party would implement its manifesto on holding a second referendum.

Scottish Greens co-convener Patrick Harvie, on 13 March 2017 welcomed the confirmation from the First Minister that she is seeking a Section 30 Order from the UK Government to give the Scottish Parliament temporary power to call a referendum on independence.

Scottish Socialist Party spokesman Colin Fox said the SSP would "work as hard as anyone to deliver a Yes vote for independence", but warned that making Scotland’s EU membership a central and “overarching” issue of the debate would be “a risky strategy” and said it ran the risk of side-lining economic and social challenges facing Scots.

UK party leaders

Then Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron stated in June 2016 that "There was a legal, fair and decisive referendum two years ago [...] the last thing Scotland needs now is another divisive referendum" and that the "best possible deal for the United Kingdom will also be the best possible deal for Scotland."

A spokesperson speaking on behalf of Cameron's successor as Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister, Theresa May, said in October 2016 "The prime minister and the government does not believe that there is a mandate for [a second referendum]. There was one only two years ago. There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK."

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said in March 2017 that a referendum would be "absolutely fine" and that "I don't think it's the job of Westminster or the Labour Party to prevent people holding referenda." However, a spokesman for Corbyn later said "Labour continues to oppose a further referendum in the Scottish Parliament and would campaign against independence if one were held."

Liberal Democrats leader Tim Farron in March 2017, said: “Scottish Liberal Democrats stood for election last year on a platform to oppose a new independence referendum. That is what we will do."

Scottish party leaders

Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, in June 2016 expressed her opposition to a second Scottish referendum, saying that the country needed stability.

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said in July 2016 that it would be "categorically wrong" for the UK Government to block a second independence referendum.

Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Willie Rennie said in March 2017, "No independence referendum, either at Westminster or in the Scottish Parliament - that's the view of the Liberal Democrats."

Opinion polling

In nearly every opinion poll, participants are asked to respond to the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", the 2014 referendum question. A response of "Yes" therefore is for Scottish independence and a response of "No" for remaining in the United Kingdom.

Polls vary in how weightings are applied and in which participants are excluded from the final data (based on how likely they are to vote), an inherent ± 3% margin of error based on a sample size of ~1,000, among other factors.

Following EU membership referendum

Only polls from companies that are members of the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology, are shown in this section.

On whether another referendum should be held

The following section concerns public opinion on holding a second referendum on Scottish independence, where "support" represents the belief that a second referendum should be held and "oppose" represents the belief that a second referendum should not be held.

Polls by other organisations

Some opinion polls were conducted by organisations that are not members of the British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and methodology. The table below denotes opinion polling conducted by said organisations.

Polls conducted before the EU referendum

Before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016, there were some opinion polls conducted which asked people if they would vote for Scottish independence in the (then hypothetical) event of a "leave" vote in that referendum.

Opinion polling in England and Wales

In 2014 a plurality (41%) of people polled in England and Wales thought that Scotland would vote to remain in the United Kingdom. However, an Opinium poll carried out 28–30 June 2016 showed a marked change, with 69% believing that Scotland would vote for independence in a second referendum, with 16% believing it would vote against independence.

Opinion polling in the European Union

Polls conducted by YouGov in July 2016 found majority support in Germany (71%), Denmark (67%), Finland (66%), Sweden (64%) and France (61%) for Scotland becoming an EU member should it become an independent state, with plurality support in Norway (46%) and the United Kingdom as a whole (41%).