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The Dayton Agreement ended the Bosnian War and created the federal republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), made up of two entities, the Bosniak and Croat-inhabited Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and the Serb-inhabited Republika Srpska (RS). In the first years after the war, the Bosnian Serbs were viewed of as "anti-Dayton", however, since 2000, they are staunch supporters of the Dayton Agreement and preservation of RS. Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), overall, view RS as illegitimate and would see it abolished. There has been statements in RS regarding a theoretical future independence referendum from BiH in case of abolition. The 2006 Montenegrin independence referendum and Kosovo declaration of independence has raised the issue of RS's referendum and possibility of unification with Serbia. In 2015, RS government SNSD stated it would call an independence referendum in 2018 if RS's autonomy is not preserved, following crisis in the country regarding judicial and police matters.
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Background
During the Yugoslav Wars, the aim of Republika Srpska (RS), a Serb-controlled territory in the SR Bosnia and Herzegovina, was the unification with the rest of the "Serb lands" — Republika Srpska Krajina (RSK, in Croatia), Republic of Serbia and Republic of Montenegro (into FR Yugoslavia). The "United Serb Republic" was a project of unification of the two self-proclaimed Serb states, RS and RSK, with the intent of it later being annexed by the "mother-state of Serbia".
The Serb and Croat political leadership agreed on a partition of BiH with the 1991 Karađorđevo agreement and the 1992 Graz agreement, leading the way to a tripartite division of the country. The Serb-Croat negotiations also resulted in the Croat forces turning against the Bosnian Army in the Croat–Bosniak War (1992–94). The failed Graz agreement would see the establishment of a small Bosniak buffer state. The Dayton Agreement (November–December 1995) ended the war and created the federal republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), made up of two entities, the Bosniak and Croat-inhabited Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and the Serb-inhabited Republika Srpska (RS). As noted by international relations expert Niels van Willigen: "Whereas the Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Serbs could identify themselves with Croatia or Serbia respectively, the absence of a Bosniak state made the Bosniaks firmly committed to Bosnia as a single political entity."
Post-war
On 12 September 1996, Biljana Plavšić called for the secession of RS and unification with FRY; as it contravened the Dayton Agreement, the OSCE forced her to publicy retract the statement. Propaganda texts appeared in 1996 calling for a Bosniak state.
2000s
In the first years after the war, the Bosnian Serbs were viewed of as "anti-Dayton", however, since 2000, they are staunch supporters of the Dayton Agreement and preservation of RS. Meanwhile, the Bosniak Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina has called for the abolition of RS.
An international policy of partitioning Kosovo and unification of Republika Srpska with Serbia and Montenegro was seen as offering "long-term security and stability for the region", according to Aleksandar Jokic (2003).
On 15 June 2006, a demonstration was held in Banja Luka in which it was demanded that in case Kosovo becomes independent, RS must hold an independence referendum. In 2007, the "Plebiscit of Republika Srpska" demanding an independence referendum was handed over to the National Assembly. In 2007, Bosniak and Bosnian Croat members of the Presidency called for the abolishment of the entities.
Since Kosovo's declaration of independence Bosnian Serb nationalists have called for Milorad Dodik to fulfill his promises and call a referendum. Dodik has since said he will only call a referendum if Srpska's autonomy is threatened. Despite this, Bosnian Serb lawmakers passed a resolution on 21 February 2008 calling for an independence referendum if a majority of the UN members, especially members of the European Union (EU), recognise Kosovo's declaration of independence. After the resolution was passed the U.S. cut aid to the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and the resolution was condemned by the EU. The Peace Implementation Council (PIC) overseeing Bosnia and Herzegovina said the country's entities have no right to secede. The High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Miroslav Lajčák, said RS has "absolutely no right" to secede and that he would use his Bonn Powers "if there are threats to peace and stability" or the Dayton peace agreement, "Republika Srpska does not have the right to secede from BiH, at the same time no one can unilaterally abolish Republika Srpska." Serbian President Boris Tadić said that Serbia does not support a breakup of Bosnia and that, as a guarantor of the Dayton Accords that brought peace to Bosnia, supports Bosnia’s territorial integrity. In an interview for a Novi Sad daily, Dodik said if most countries recognise Kosovo's self-proclaimed independence, this would legitimise the right to secession and added "we do not see a single reason why we should not be granted the right to self-determination, the right envisaged in international conventions."
2010s
According to a poll of Bosnian Serbs taken by the Brussels-based Gallup Balkan Monitor in November 2010, 88% would support a referendum being called on Republika Srpska's independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In 2011, RS planned for a referendum on leaving Bosnian state federal institutions (supra-entity), which was thwarted by the EU.
In 2012, Dodik said that Republika Srpska one day would be independent. In 2013, there were discussions on the matter. Steven Meyer, former CIA director and expert on the Balkans, said in 2013 and 2014 that he believes that Republika Srpska will become independent in time, that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a made-up state only existing on paper, and that the people should decide for itself.
Milorad Dodik warned in February 2015 that if the Constitutional Court was not reformed, it would break up the country. The largest Serb party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, SNSD, adopted a resolution in which it is stated that unless RS is able to strengthen its autonomy, the RS assembly would call on a referendum to break from the FBiH in 2018; although this referendum on the state court and prosecution "would not weaken the state judiciary", it "would destabilise the country" says Bosnian legal experts. SDA, the largest party in BiH, adopted a resolution in May 2015 in which the country would be reorganized into five regions – the removal of RS.
In January 2016, Dodik claimed that American lobbyists asked for a billion dollars in return for independence in 10 to 15 years. American analysts of Mic claim that RS will become independent by 2025. BMI Research said, in the Republika Srpska: How Likely Is Independence? analysis, that "Bosnia's Serbian entity, Republika Srpska (RS), is unlikely to achieve formal independence over the next five years, owing to widespread opposition on the part of the EU and US, which do not wish to see a redrawing of Balkan borders. RS could conceivably declare independence regardless, but it would risk being diplomatically and economically isolated." In February, the RS court referendum was indefinitely postponed. On 31 May 2016, Dodik stated that never before has RS had the danger of disappearing as now. US Balkan analyst Daniel Serwer said that RS would never become independent.
In December 2016, High Representative Valentin Inzko threatened that 'separatism', a RS independence referendum, would force international 'intervention'. He also stated that the international community would never recognize an independent RS, and also that he had the powers to replace RS President Dodik, but that those 'times have passed. Today we need domestic solutions and responsibility'.