Presidency of Nicolás Maduro

Rule by decree

Beginning six months after being elected, Maduro has ruled by decree several times: from 19 November 2013 to 19 November 2014, 15 March 2015 to 31 December 2015, 15 January 2016 to 15 March 2016, 18 March 2016 to 17 May 2016 and 17 May 2016 to 1 January 2017.

2013–2014

In October 2013, Maduro requested an enabling law to rule by decree in order to fight corruption and to also fight what he called an "economic war". On 19 November 2013, the National Assembly granted Maduro the power to rule by decree until 19 November 2014.

2015–2016

On 10 March 2015, Maduro asked to rule by decree for a second time following the sanctioning of seven Venezuelan officials by the United States, requesting the Enabling Law to be used to "confront" what Maduro called "the aggression of the most powerful country in the world, the United States". Days later on 15 March 2015, the National Assembly granted Maduro power to rule by decree until 31 December 2015.

2016–2017

After a coalition of opposition parties won in the 6 December 2015 elections, the lame duck Assembly named 13 new Justices sympathetic toward Maduro to the Supreme Court. On 15 January 2016, Maduro declared an economic emergency and issued a "vaguely worded" decree that would grant himself extraordinary powers for 60 days, or until 15 March 2016. Days after on 18 March 2016, the expiration of the decree powers, the Supreme Court granted Maduro the power to rule by decree for an additional 60 days, or until 17 May 2016.

Days before his second 60-day rule by decree were to end, Maduro stated on 11 May 2016 that he would continue to rule by decree through the rest of the year until 2017.

2017–2018

While meeting with the Supreme Tribunal of Justice on 15 January 2017, Maduro signed a new economic decree decree, extending his rule by decree for the sixth time. On 19 January, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice established the "Decree on the State of Emergency and Economic Emergency", granting Maduro to rule by decree further into 2017.

Military authority

Maduro has relied on the military to maintain power since he was initially elected into office. According to Luis Manuel Esculpi, a Venezuelan security analyst, "The army is Maduro's only source of authority." As time passed, Maduro grew more reliant on the military, showing that Maduro was losing power as described by Amherst College professor, Javier Corrales. Corrales explains that "From 2003 until Chavez died in 2013, the civilian wing was strong, so he did not have to fall back on the military. As civilians withdrew their support, Maduro was forced to resort to military force."

On 12 July 2016, Maduro granted Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López the power to oversee product transportation, price controls, the Bolivarian missions, while also having his military command five of Venezuela's main ports. This action performed by President Maduro made General Padrino one of the most powerful people in Venezuela, possibly "the second most powerful man in Venezuelan politics". The appointment of Padrino was also seen to be similar to the Cuban government's tactic of granting the Cuban military the power to manage the Cuba's economy. It is the first time since the dictatorship of General Marcos Perez Jimenez in 1958 that a military official has held such power in Venezuela. According to Corrales, "For all of the ministers of the cabinet to have to respond to a soldier, this is associated with military dictatorships".

Cultural and political image

In October 2013, Maduro's approval rating stood between 45% and 50% with Reuters stating that it was possibly due to Hugo Chávez's endorsement. One year later in October 2014, Maduro's approval rating was at 24.5% according to Datanálisis.

In November 2014, Datanálisis polls indicated that more than 66% of Venezuelans believed that Maduro should not finish his six-year term, with government supporters representing more than 25% of those believing that Maduro should resign. In March and April 2015, Maduro saw a small increase in approval after initiating a campaign of anti-US rhetoric following the sanctioning of seven officials accused by the United States of participating in human rights violations.

Polls following the suspension of the recall movement that were gathered in late-October and through November 2016 showed that the majority of Venezuelans believed that Maduro's government had developed into a dictatorship. One Venebarametro poll found that 61.4% found that Maduro had become a dictator, while in a poll taken by Keller and Associates, 63% of those questioned thought that Maduro was a dictator.

2014–present: Venezuelan protests

Since 2014, a series of protests, political demonstrations, and civil insurrection began in Venezuela due to the country's high levels of violence, inflation, and chronic shortages of basic goods attributed to economic policies such as strict price controls. Maduro's government saw the protests as an undemocratic coup d'etat attempt orchestrated by "fascist opposition leaders and the United States".

Although Maduro, a former trade union leader, says he supports peaceful protesting, the Venezuelan government has been widely condemned for its handling of the protests. Venezuelan authorities have reportedly gone beyond the use of rubber pellets and tear gas to instances of live ammunition use and torture of arrested protestors, according to organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, while the United Nations has accused the Venezuelan government of politically-motivated arrests, most notably former Chacao mayor and leader of Popular Will, Leopoldo Lopez, who has used the controversial charges of murder and inciting violence against him to protest the government's "criminalization of dissent."

Protests dwindled through 2015 and into 2016, though a movement to recall Maduro rekindled anti-government sentiment among Venezuelans, culminating with over one million protesting nationwide on 1 September 2016. Protests since then have continued, especially due to controversies surrounding the recall movement and the continued socioeconomic hardships Venezuelans face on a daily basis.

Recall referendum

The process to hold a recall referendum to vote on recalling Maduro was started on May 2, 2016. On that date, opposition leaders in Venezuela handed in a petition to the National Electoral Council (CNE) that started a several stage process. As of July 2016, the Venezuelan government had stated that if enough signatures were collected, a recall vote would be held no sooner than 2017.

Initial petition

On May 2, 2016, opposition leaders in Venezuela handed in a petition calling for a recall referendum. On June 21, 2016, the BBC reported that signatures for a referendum to recall Maduro were being recorded by the National Electoral Council (CNE), with the process ongoing for several days. The petition required 1% of the electorate to endorse it before the next stage of voting could be held. According to opposition leaders, in July during a preliminary signature drive for the recall, the CNE "rejected more than half a million signatures for reasons ranging from unclear handwriting to smudged fingerprints."

In early July 2016, Barack Obama urged Venezuela to allow the recall referendum. On July 5, 2016, the Venezuelan intelligence service detained five opposition activists involved with the recall referendum, with two other activists of the same party, Popular Will, also arrested.

According to a July 27, 2016 article in The Guardian, "Venezuela's opposition has demanded authorities move forward on a referendum to force Nicolás Maduro from office, amid complaints that the government is digging in its heels to delay the process." Several days before protests on the issue at the headquarters of the CNE had been held after the CNE missed a deadline on announcing whether a recent petition had collected enough valid signatures. The government, in response, argued the protestors were part of a plot to topple Maduro. At the time, a poll by Venebarómetro reportedly found that "88% of 'likely' voters in a recall would choose to oust Maduro."

Second phase of the referendum

On August 1, 2016, the CNE announced that enough signatures had been validated for the recall process to continue. A date was not set by the CNE for the second phase to take place, which requires raising 20 percent of the electorates' signatures. While opposition leaders pushed for the recall to be held before the end of 2016, allowing a new presidential election to take place, the government vowed a recall would not occur until 2017, ensuring the current vice president would potentially come to power. Reuters reported that the government had launched 9,000 lawsuits alleging fraud in signature collection by that time.

On August 9, 2016, the CNE presented a timeline for the referendum that made it unlikely it would be held before the end of 2016, in part due to a new 90-day verification period for signatures. The second stage of the petition was estimated by the CNE to likely take place in October 2016, resulting in a vote likely happening in February 2017. Opposition leaders were reported to be planning a large protest march in response, with leaders accusing the CNE of favoring the incumbent Socialist Party with the wait time. According to Reuters on August 9, "Socialist Party leaders have dismissed the recall effort as fraudulent and noted that the elections council found nearly 10,000 signatures corresponding to people who were deceased."

Early on September 21, 2016, the National Electoral Council set new guidelines for the recall campaign that The Associated Press described as "unfavorable to the opposition." Among other rules, officials announced that signatures would need to be gathered from 20 percent of Venezuelan voters over three days, specifically October 26 until October 28. In addition, officials required campaigners to gather 20 percent from the electorate in each state, although "opposition leaders say they should only have to gather signatures from 20 percent of voters nationwide." The opposition, which had asked for 20,000 voting machines, was granted 5,400 by officials. On September 21, 2016, the National Electoral Council announced the recall referendum would not be held before January 10, meaning new elections would be ruled out in favor of the VP assuming Maduro's place until the end of the term in 2019. The CNE said that the vote "could be held in the middle of the first quarter of 2017."

Suspension of referendum

On 21 October 2016, the CNE suspended the referendum only days before preliminary signature-gatherings were to be held. The CNE blamed alleged voter fraud as the reason for the cancellation of the referendum.

Reaction

Opposition leaders responded by calling on protests against the CNE's actions. The day after the government's announcement, several thousand Venezuelans marched through Caracas protesting against the suspension. Demonstrators were led by Lilian Tintori and Patricia Gutierrez, wives of arrested opposition politicians.

Experts described the suspension as "unconstitutional". Venezuelan constitutional law expert Jose Vicente Haro stated that the move by the Bolivarian government shows no respect for the constitution while the Washington Office on Latin America called the suspension "a setback for democracy".

International reactions

Reuters reported on August 4, 2016 that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had stated that "we encourage Venezuela to embrace the recall not in a delayed way that pushes it into next year, but to do this as a sign of respect for the constitution of the country and the needs of the people of the country." On August 11, 2016, 15 countries in the Organization of American States released a joint statement urging for the referendum to be held "without delay," to "contribute to the quick and effective resolution of the current political, economic and social difficulties in the country."