Peter Navarro

Early life and education

Navarro's father, a saxophonist and clarinetist, led a house band, which played summers in New Hampshire and winters in Florida. His parents divorced when he was 9 or 10. Subsequently, he lived with his mother, a Saks Fifth Avenue secretary, in Palm Beach, Florida. He lived in Bethesda, Maryland, during his teenage years.

Navarro graduated from Tufts University in 1972 with a Bachelor of Arts degree. He earned a Master of Public Administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government in 1979, and a PhD in Economics from Harvard in 1986. Shortly after graduation from Tufts, Navarro spent three years in the U.S. Peace Corps, serving in Thailand.

Policy analysis

In the 1970s, Navarro served as a policy analyst for the Urban Services Group, the Massachusetts Energy Office, and the United States Department of Energy.

Navarro's work has appeared in Barron’s, Bloomberg Businessweek, Los Angeles Times, The Boston Globe, the Chicago Tribune, the International Herald Tribune, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, MIT Sloan Management Review and The Journal of Business. He has appeared on Bloomberg TV and radio, BBC, CNN, NPR, and Marketplace. He is a contributor to CNBC and has appeared on 60 Minutes. He also writes investment articles for thestreet.com. In 2012, Navarro directed and produced a documentary film based on his book, Death by China. The film was released under the same title and narrated by Martin Sheen.

Navarro's policy prescriptions include that “U.S. should be tough on trade, crack down on intellectual property theft, tax Chinese exports, combat Chinese mercantilism, [and] bring jobs home.”

Academics

A professor of economics and public policy at University of California, Irvine for over 20 years, Navarro has worked on energy issues and the relationship between the United States and Asia. He has received multiple teaching awards for MBA courses he has taught. Before joining the UC Irvine faculty, Navarro worked as a research associate in Harvard University's Energy and Environmental Policy Center from 1981 to 1985.

As a doctoral student in 1984 Nararro wrote a book titled, "The Policy Game: How Special Interests and Ideologues are Stealing America," which discussed that special interest groups had led the United States to “a point in its history where it cannot grow and prosper.” In the book he also called for greater worker's compensation by those that had lost jobs to trade and foreign competition. His doctoral thesis on why corporations donate to charity is one of his highest cited works. He has also done research in the topic of wind energy with Frank Harris, a former student of his.

He then lectured at the University of California, San Diego, where he also served as an assistant professor, teaching courses in business and government. Prior to teaching, Navarro worked in Washington, D.C. as an energy and environmental policy analyst. Navarro has published peer-reviewed economics research on energy policy, charity, deregulation and the economics of trash collection. According to the Economist, Navarro "is a prolific writer, but has no publications in top-tier academic journals."

Politics

Navarro ran for office in San Diego, California three times as a Democrat. In 1992, he ran for mayor as an Independent, finishing first (38.2%) in the all-party primary, but losing (48.0%) to Republican Susan Golding in the runoff. In 1996, he ran for the 49th Congressional District as the Democratic Party nominee (41.9%), but lost to Republican Brian Bilbray (52.7%). In 2001, Navarro ran in a special election to fill the District 6 San Diego city council seat, but lost in the primary.

President Trump's chief trade advisor

In 2016, Navarro served as a policy advisor to the Donald Trump presidential campaign. Navarro and the international private equity investor Wilbur Ross authored an economic plan for the Donald Trump presidential campaign in September 2016. Navarro was invited to be an adviser after Jared Kushner saw on Amazon that he co-wrote Death by China, while he was researching China for Trump. and told When the Tax Policy Center assessed that Trump's economic plan would reduce federal revenues by $6 trillion and reduce economic growth in the long term, Navarro said that the analysis demonstrated "a high degree of analytical and political malfeasance". When the Peterson Institute for International Affairs estimated that Trump's economic plan would cost millions of American their jobs, Navarro said that the Peterson Institute "weave a false narrative and they come up with some phony numbers." According to MIT economist Simon Johnson, the economic plan authored by Navarro and Wilbur Ross for Donald Trump during the campaign had projections "based on assumptions so unrealistic that they seem to have come from a different planet. If the United States really did adopt Trump’s plan, the result would be an immediate and unmitigated disaster." When 370 economists, including nineteen Nobel laureates, signed a letter warning against Donald Trump's stated economic policies in November 2016, Navarro said that the letter was “an embarrassment to the corporate offshoring wing of the economist profession who continues to insist bad trade deals are good for America.”

In October 2016, with Wilbur Ross and Andy Puzder, Navarro coauthored the "ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP’S CONTRACT WITH THE AMERICAN VOTER".

On December 21, 2016, Navarro was selected by President-elect Donald Trump to head a newly created position, as director of the White House National Trade Council. He outlines President Trump's trade policy as aiming to create jobs, revive the manufacturing sector, and improve the country's trade balance. He warned that trade deficits could jeopardize U.S. national security by allowing unfriendly nations to encroach on American supply chains. One of his main missions is to focus on behaviors by other countries that considers abusive, cheating, illegal, and unfair against the U.S.

Views on trade

Navarro has been a staunch critic of trade with China and strong proponent of reducing U.S. trade deficits. He has attacked Germany, Japan and China for currency manipulation. He has called for increasing the size of the American manufacturing sector, setting high tariffs, and repatriating global supply chains. He was a fierce opponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

According to Politico, Navarro's economic theories are "considered fringe" by his fellow economists. Al-Jazeera notes that "few other economists have endorsed Navarro's ideas." A New Yorker reporter described Navarro's views on trade and China as so radical "that, even with his assistance, I was unable to find another economist who fully agrees with them." The Economist described Navarro as having "oddball views". The George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen has praised him as “one of the most versatile and productive American economists of the last few decades”, but Cowen noted that he disagreed with his views on trade, which he claimed go "against a strong professional consensus." University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers described Navarro's views as "far outside the mainstream," noting that "he endorses few of the key tenets of" the economics profession. According to Lee Branstetter, economics professor at Carnegie Mellon and trade expert with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Navarro "was never a part of the group of economists who ever studied the global free-trade system ... He doesn't publish in journals. What he's writing and saying right now has nothing to do with what he got his Harvard Ph.D. in ... he doesn't do research that would meet the scientific standards of that community." Marcus Noland, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, described a tax and trade paper written by Navarro and Wilbur Ross for Trump as "a complete misunderstanding of international trade, on their part."

Border adjustment tax

Navarro supports a tax policy called "border adjustment", which essentially taxes all imports. In response to criticism that the border adjustment tax could hurt U.S. companies and put jobs at risk, Navarro called it "fake news."

China

According to Politico, "Navarro is perhaps the most extreme advocate in Washington, and maybe in all of economics, for an aggressive stance toward China." Navarro put his attention to China in the mid-2000s. His first publication on the subject is the 2006 book The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought, How They Can Be Won. Navarro has said that he started to examine China when he noticed that his former students were losing jobs, concluding that China was at fault.

In Politico's description of the book, "Navarro uses military language to refer to China’s trade policies, referring to its “conquest” of the world’s export markets, which has “vaporized literally millions of manufacturing jobs and driven down wages.”... China’s aspirations are so insatiable, he claims, that eventually there will be a clash over “our most basic of all needs—bread, water, and air.”" Navarro has described the entry of China to the World Trade Organization as one of the United States' biggest mistakes. To respond to the Chinese threat, Navarro has advocated for 43% tariffs, the repudiation of trade pacts, major increases in military expenditures and strengthened military ties with Taiwan. The New York Times notes that "a wide range of economists have warned that curtailing trade with China would damage the American economy, forcing consumers to pay higher prices for goods and services." Navarro has reportedly also encouraged President Trump to enact a 25-percent tariff on Chinese steel imports, something that "trade experts worry... would upend global trade practices and cause countries to retaliate, potentially leading to a trade war".

Navarro has said that a large part of China's competitive advantage over the United States stems from unfair trade practices. Navarro has criticized China for pollution, poor labor standards, government subsidies, producing "contaminated, defective and cancerous" exports, currency manipulation, and theft of US intellectual property. In his 2012 documentary, Navarro said that China caused the loss of 57,000 US factories and 25 million jobs. While Navarro maintains that China manipulates its currency, neither the U.S. Treasury nor most economists believe that it is the case.

According to Foreign Policy, "well-regarded China analysts are almost universal in their derision of [Navarro's] views." Of the more than dozen China specialists contacted by Foreign Policy, most either did not know of him or only interacted with him briefly. Kenneth Pomeranz, University of Chicago professor of Chinese History, said that his "recollection is that [Navarro] generally avoided people who actually knew something about the country". Columnist Gordon G. Chang was the only China watcher contacted by Foreign Policy who defended Navarro, but even then noted that he disagreed with Navarro's claims of currency manipulation, opposition to the TPP and calls for high tariffs. Navarro does not appear to speak Chinese nor has he spent any time in the country. James McGregor, a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that Navarro's books and documentary on China “have close to zero credibility with people who know the country,” and are filled with “hyperbole, inaccuracies” and a “cartoonish caricature of China that he puts out.”

Germany

Navarro drew controversy when he accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners. Politico notes that Germany does not set the value of the euro. Economists and commentators are divided on the accuracy of Navarro's remarks. Paul Krugman said that Navarro was right and wrong at the same time: "Yes, Germany in effect has an undervalued currency relative to what it would have without the euro... But does this mean that the euro as a whole is undervalued against the dollar? Probably not." Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff described Navarro's accusation of Germany as a currency manipulator as "#stupideconomics".

Manufacturing

Navarro argues that the decline in US manufacturing jobs is chiefly due to "unfair trade practices and bad trade deals. And if you don't believe that, just go to the booming factories in Germany, in Japan, in Korea, in China, in Malaysia, in Vietnam, in Indonesia, in Italy — every place that we're running deficits with." However, many economists attribute the decline in manufacturing jobs chiefly to automation and other innovations that allow manufacturing firms to produce more goods with fewer workers, rather than trade.

Navarro has been a proponent of strengthening the manufacturing sector's role in the national economy: "We envision a more Germany-style economy, where 20 percent of our workforce is in manufacturing... And we're not talking about banging tin in the back room." The New York Times notes that "experts on manufacturing... doubt that the government can significantly increase factory employment, noting that mechanization is the major reason fewer people are working in factories.."

NAFTA

Navarro has called for the United States to leave NAFTA. Politico reported that Navarro tried to convince President Trump of leaving NAFTA.

Repatriation of global supply chains

Navarro has called for repatriating global supply chains. According to Politico's Jacob Heilbrunn, such a move "would be enormously costly and take years to execute".

Trade as a national security risk

Navarro has framed trade as a national security risk. According to Politico, "he’s a hard-line mercantilist who insists that military confrontation with some trading partners is almost inevitable."

Navarro has characterized foreign purchases of U.S. companies as a threat to national security, but according to NPR, this is "a fringe view that puts him at odds with the vast majority of economists." Dartmouth economist Douglas Irwin noted that the US government already reviews foreign purchases of companies with military or strategic value, and has on occasion rejected such deals. Irwin said that Navarro had not substantiated his claim with any evidence.

Navarro has also said that the United States has "already begun to lose control of [its] food supply chain", which according to NPR, "sounded pretty off-the-wall to a number of economists" who noted that the US is a massive exporter of food. Dermot Hayes, an agribusiness economist at Iowa State University, described Navarro's statement as "uninformed".

Trade deficits

Navarro is a proponent of the notion that trade deficits are bad in and of themselves, a view which is widely rejected by trade experts and economists across the political spectrum. In a white paper co-authored with Wilbur Ross, Navarro stated, "when a country runs a trade deficit by importing more than it exports, this subtracts from growth." In a Wall Street Journal op-ed defending his views, Navarro stated, "If we are able to reduce our trade deficits through tough, smart negotiations, we should be able to increase our growth." Harvard University economics professor Gregory Mankiw has said that Navarro's views on the trade deficit are based on the kind of mistakes that "even a freshman at the end of ec 10 knows." Tufts University professor Daniel W. Drezner said about Navarro's op-ed, "as someone who’s written on this topic I could not for the life of me understand his reasoning". According to Tyler Cowen, "close to no one" in the economics profession agrees with Navarro’s idea that a trade deficit is bad in and of itself. Nobel laureate Angus Deaton described Navarro's attitude on trade deficits as “an old-fashioned mercantilist position.”

The Economist magazine has described Navarro's views on the trade deficit as "dodgy economics" and "fantasy", while the Financial Times has described them as "poor economics". Economists Noah Smith, Scott Sumner, Olivier Blanchard, and Phil Levy have also criticized Navarro's views on the trade deficit.

Trans-Pacific Partnership

Navarro opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In an April 2015 op-ed, Navarro said, "To woo us, their spinmeisters boast the TPP will spur American exports to stimulate sorely needed economic growth. In truth, the American economy will suffer severely. This is because the TPP will hammer two main drivers of economic growth – domestic investment and “net exports.”" Navarro said in March 2017 that TPP "would have been a “death knell” to America’s auto and vehicle parts industry that we “urgently need to bring back to full life.” Politico's Jacob Heilbrunn and the Economist argue that there may be a disconnect between Navarro's policy on China and his opposition to the TPP, as scuttling the TPP will strengthen China's hand.

Personal life

Navarro is married to architect Leslie Lebon. They live in Laguna Beach, California.