Oil reserves

Classifications

All reserve estimates involve uncertainty, depending on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available and the interpretation of that data. The relative degree of uncertainty can be expressed by dividing reserves into two principal classifications—"proven" (or "proved") and "unproven" (or "unproved"). Unproven reserves can further be divided into two subcategories—"probable" and "possible"—to indicate the relative degree of uncertainty about their existence. The most commonly accepted definitions of these are based on those approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and the World Petroleum Council (WPC) in 1997.

Proven reserves

Proven reserves are those reserves claimed to have a reasonable certainty (normally at least 90% confidence) of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions, with existing technology. Industry specialists refer to this as "P90" (that is, having a 90% certainty of being produced). Proven reserves are also known in the industry as "1P".

Proven reserves are further subdivided into "proven developed" (PD) and "proven undeveloped" (PUD). PD reserves are reserves that can be produced with existing wells and perforations, or from additional reservoirs where minimal additional investment (operating expense) is required. PUD reserves require additional capital investment (e.g., drilling new wells) to bring the oil to the surface.

Until December 2009 "1P" proven reserves were the only type the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allowed oil companies to report to investors. Companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges must substantiate their claims, but many governments and national oil companies do not disclose verifying data to support their claims. Since January 2010 the SEC now allows companies to also provide additional optional information declaring 2P (both proven and probable) and 3P (proven plus probable plus possible) provided the evaluation is verified by qualified third party consultants, though many companies choose to use 2P and 3P estimates only for internal purposes.

Unproven reserves

Unproven reserves are based on geological and/or engineering data similar to that used in estimates of proven reserves, but technical, contractual, or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as proven. Unproven reserves may be used internally by oil companies and government agencies for future planning purposes but are not routinely compiled. They are sub-classified as probable and possible.

Probable reserves are attributed to known accumulations and claim a 50% confidence level of recovery. Industry specialists refer to them as "P50" (i.e., having a 50% certainty of being produced). The sum of proven plus probable reserves is also referred to in the industry as "2P" (proven plus probable).

Possible reserves are attributed to known accumulations that have a less likely chance of being recovered than probable reserves. This term is often used for reserves which are claimed to have at least a 10% certainty of being produced ("P10"). Reasons for classifying reserves as possible include varying interpretations of geology, reserves not producible at commercial rates, uncertainty due to reserve infill (seepage from adjacent areas) and projected reserves based on future recovery methods. The cumulative amount of proven, probable and possible resources are referred to in the industry as "3P" (proven plus probable plus possible).

Russian reserve categories

In Russia, reserves categories A, B, and C1 correspond roughly to proved developed producing, proved developed nonproducing, and proved undeveloped, respectively; the designation ABC1 corresponds to proved reserves. The Russian category C2 includes probable and possible reserves.

Strategic petroleum reserves

Many countries maintain government-controlled oil reserves for both economic and national security reasons. According to the United States Energy Information Administration, approximately 4.1 billion barrels (650,000,000 m³) of oil are held in strategic reserves, of which 1.4 billion is government-controlled. These reserves are generally not counted when computing a nation's oil reserves.

Resources

A more sophisticated system of evaluating petroleum accumulations was adopted in 2007 by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), World Petroleum Council (WPC), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE). It incorporates the 1997 definitions for reserves, but adds categories for contingent resources and prospective resources.

Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. Contingent resources may include, for example, projects for which there are no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality.

Prospective resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development.

The United States Geological Survey uses the terms technically and economically recoverable resources when making its petroleum resource assessments. Technically recoverable resources represent that proportion of assessed in-place petroleum that may be recoverable using current recovery technology, without regard to cost. Economically recoverable resources are technically recoverable petroleum for which the costs of discovery, development, production, and transport, including a return to capital, can be recovered at a given market price.

"Unconventional resources" exist in petroleum accumulations that are pervasive throughout a large area. Examples include extra heavy oil, oil sand, and oil shale deposits. Unlike "conventional resources", in which the petroleum is recovered through wellbores and typically requires minimal processing prior to sale, unconventional resources require specialized extraction technology to produce. For example, steam and/or solvents are used to mobilize bitumen for in-situ recovery. Moreover, the extracted petroleum may require significant processing prior to sale (e.g., bitumen upgraders). The total amount of unconventional oil resources in the world considerably exceeds the amount of conventional oil reserves, but are much more difficult and expensive to develop.

Estimation techniques

The amount of oil in a subsurface reservoir is called oil in place (OIP). Only a fraction of this oil can be recovered from a reservoir. This fraction is called the recovery factor. The portion that can be recovered is considered to be a reserve. The portion that is not recoverable is not included unless and until methods are implemented to produce it.

Volumetric method

Volumetric methods attempt to determine the amount of oil in place by using the size of the reservoir as well as the physical properties of its rocks and fluids. Then a recovery factor is assumed, using assumptions from fields with similar characteristics. OIP is multiplied by the recovery factor to arrive at a reserve number. Current recovery factors for oil fields around the world typically range between 10 and 60 percent; some are over 80 percent. The wide variance is due largely to the diversity of fluid and reservoir characteristics for different deposits. The method is most useful early in the life of the reservoir, before significant production has occurred.

Materials balance method

The materials balance method for an oil field uses an equation that relates the volume of oil, water and gas that has been produced from a reservoir and the change in reservoir pressure to calculate the remaining oil. It assumes that, as fluids from the reservoir are produced, there will be a change in the reservoir pressure that depends on the remaining volume of oil and gas. The method requires extensive pressure-volume-temperature analysis and an accurate pressure history of the field. It requires some production to occur (typically 5% to 10% of ultimate recovery), unless reliable pressure history can be used from a field with similar rock and fluid characteristics.

Production decline curve method

The decline curve method uses production data to fit a decline curve and estimate future oil production. The three most common forms of decline curves are exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic. It is assumed that the production will decline on a reasonably smooth curve, and so allowances must be made for wells shut in and production restrictions. The curve can be expressed mathematically or plotted on a graph to estimate future production. It has the advantage of (implicitly) including all reservoir characteristics. It requires a sufficient history to establish a statistically significant trend, ideally when production is not curtailed by regulatory or other artificial conditions.

Reserves growth

Experience shows that initial estimates of the size of newly discovered oil fields are usually too low. As years pass, successive estimates of the ultimate recovery of fields tend to increase. The term reserve growth refers to the typical increases in estimated ultimate recovery that occur as oil fields are developed and produced.

Estimated reserves by country

BBL = barrel of oil

It is estimated that between 100 and 135 billion tonnes (which equals between 133 and 180 billions m³ of oil) of the world's oil reserves have been used between 1850 and the present.

OPEC countries

Since OPEC started to set production quotas on the basis of reserves levels in the 1980s, many of its members have reported significant increases in their official reserves. There are doubts about the reliability of these estimates, which are not provided with any form of verification that meet external reporting standards. The following table illustrates these rises.

The sudden revisions in OPEC reserves, totaling nearly 300 bn barrels, have been much debated. Some of it is defended partly by the shift in ownership of reserves away from international oil companies, some of whom were obliged to report reserves under conservative US Securities and Exchange Commission rules. The most prominent explanation of the revisions is prompted by a change in OPEC rules which set production quotas (partly) on reserves. In any event, the revisions in official data had little to do with the actual discovery of new reserves.

Total reserves in many OPEC countries hardly changed in the 1990s. Official reserves in Kuwait, for example, were unchanged at 96.5 Gbbl (15.34×10^⁹ m³) (including its share of the Neutral Zone) from 1991 to 2002, even though the country produced more than 8 Gbbl (1.3×10^⁹ m³) and did not make any important new discoveries during that period. The case of Saudi Arabia is also striking, with proven reserves estimated at between 260 and 264 billion barrels (4.20×10¹⁰ m³) in the past 18 years, a variation of less than 2%, while extracting approximately 60 billion barrels (9.5×10⁹ m³) during this period.

Sadad al-Huseini, former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, estimates 300 Gbbl (48×10^⁹ m³) of the world's 1,200 Gbbl (190×10^⁹ m³) of proven reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources, though he did not specify which countries had inflated their reserves. Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390bn barrels and has said, "As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels (2.10×10¹⁰ m³) is almost one hundred billion over any realistic assay." Petroleum Intelligence Weekly reported that official confidential Kuwaiti documents estimate reserves of Kuwait were only 48 billion barrels (7.6×10^⁹ m³), of which half were proven and half were possible. The combined value of proven and possible is half of the official public estimate of proven reserves.

In July 2011, OPEC's Annual Statistical Review showed Venezuela's reserves to be larger than Saudi Arabia's.