13 May 2012 2017 → 67 seats, 34.5% 67 seats, 34.6% 67 67 Start date May 13, 2012 | Turnout 59.6% 67 seats, 34.6% 23 seats, 12.1% 67 23 | |
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The North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012 was a snap election held on 13 May 2012, to elect members to the Landtag of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, after the former Landtag was dissolved on 14 March 2012. The red-green minority government led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was returned with a 19-seat majority and were able to continue governing the state.
Contents
The opposition consisted of the CDU, led by Norbert Röttgen since 2010, the FDP and The Left.
Background
Germany's largest state has often been described as a bellwether in recent years. The Social Democrats led the state's governments continuously from 1966 until a CDU-FDP coalition took control in the 2005 election. The defeat in the 2005 election led to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder calling early federal elections, which he lost.
The Red-Green coalition formed a minority government with Hannelore Kraft as Minister President after emerging one seat short of a governing majority in the previous election. The Landtag was dissolved after the government failed to pass the budget on 14 March 2012. All 3 opposition parties voted against the budget. The coalition were expecting the Free Democrats to abstain from voting on the budget and this would have allowed the Red-Green coalition to continue governing.
Campaign and issues
The Social Democratic Party and Green Party campaigned for a majority and were predicted to gain seats in the polls. The SPD won a landslide of constituencies, winning 99 seats to the CDU's 29 - more than the 72/181 seats they would be entitled to under the mixed member proportional representation system. The Landtag was increased from 181 to 237 seats to accommodate the "overhang".
The Christian Democratic Union nominated Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen to lead their campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia. However, Röttgen was criticised for not explaining whether he intended to stay in federal politics or continue to lead the party on a state level if he lost, and opinion polls showed that voters preferred Kraft as a Minister-President by a wide margin. The CDU made tackling the state's €230bn debt a key issue, including using a giant inflatable "debt mountain" as a prop.
The Free Democratic Party had fallen below the 5% threshold in six state elections since the 2009 federal election, but had managed to win 8% of the vote in Schleswig-Holstein a week before. In North-Rhine Westphalia, the FDP increased their share of the vote for the first time since 2009. This was attributed to the leadership of Christian Lindner.
The Pirate Party, running on a loose platform of Internet freedom and grassroots democracy, won seats in its fourth consecutive state election.
The Left Party, which had won seats in the Landtag for the first time in 2010, lost half its votes and all of its seats.
Opinion polls
The following opinion polls were conducted during the campaign:
Seat forecast
Analysts on election.de forecast the proportion of the 128 first-past-the-post seats (the other 109 being elected using party lists) after the next election. These seats traditionally have been held by either CDU or SPD.
Minister-President preference
Some pollsters also included the question on locals preference on the next Minister-President: