Next Catalan parliamentary election

Electoral system

No electoral law is in force in Catalonia, with election rules for the Parliament regulated under the electoral system for the Congress of Deputies and special provisions within the regional Statute of Autonomy. The Parliament of Catalonia is elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Under the Statute, the Parliament is entitled to a minimum of 100 members and a maximum of 150, which provisional statutory rules set to 135. All seats are allocated to four multi-member districts—each corresponding to a province, with allocation awarding 85 seats to Barcelona, 17 to Girona, 15 to Lleida and 18 to Tarragona—. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—is applied in each constituency, with parties not reaching the threshold not taken into consideration for seat distribution.

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote—however, amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "requested" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado)—. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility are eligible for the Parliament. Gender quotas were introduced in 2007, requiring for party lists to be composed of at least 40% of candidates of either gender and for each group of five candidates to contain at least two males and two females. Groups of electors are required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates, whereas parties and coalitions left out from Parliament in the previous election are required to obtain the signatures of at least 0.1% of registered electors in the districts they intend to contest.

The President has the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election; otherwise, elected deputies serve for four year terms, starting from election day. Additionally, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved in the event of unsuccessful investiture attempts failing to elect a President within a two month-period from the first ballot, triggering a snap election likewise.

Latest possible date

The next Catalan parliamentary election cannot be held later than Monday 11 November 2019. This date is determined as follows:

Background

The 2015 election resulted in pro-Catalan independence Together for Yes (JxSí) (a coalition comprising the two main centre-right and centre-left Catalan parties at the time, Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), together with several minor parties) and Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) holding a slim majority of seats, despite not securing a majority of votes as was their objective. President Artur Mas' JxSí coalition also fell short of its goal to secure an absolute majority on its own, obtaining 62 seats to the combined 63 of the remaining opposition parties. Thus, Mas found himself dependant on CUP's support for securing his nomination to be re-elected to the office. The CUP, however, found difficulty in supporting Mas, who was viewed has having been tainted by several corruption scandals involving his party, CDC.

Both JxSí and the CUP submitted on 28 October 2015 a parliamentary motion declaring the "beginning of the process towards the independence of Catalonia as a republic", a move seen by many as a concession from JxSí to the CUP so that it would support Artur Mas' investiture. This move, however, was met with stiff opposition from all other parties, which regarded it as "risky" and "illegal", and did not succeed in bringing the CUP to terms, which kept refusing to invest Mas as regional premier and advocated for other candidates to be proposed. On 10 November 2015, the first ballot of Artur Mas' investiture vote was held, with 62 voting favourably to Mas' election (only those of JxSí) and 73 against (those from all other parties). The unsuccessful vote set up the start of the legal timespan of two months for election a new President before the Parliament's automatic dissolution and the forced call of a new election. A subsequent second ballot on 12 November also proved inconclusive, and further ballots were suspended until JxSí and the CUP were able to solve the deadlock. Negotiations between JxSí and the CUP then ensued, but without success.

Popular Mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau's personal involvement during the election campaign and Podemos' promise on holding a legal self-determination referendum on Catalonia resulted in a resounding victory for Podemos' brand, En Comú Podem (Catalan for "In Common We Can"), at the regional level in the 2015 Spanish general election held on 20 December. ERC scored a distant second place, while Democracy and Freedom (DL), the coalition formed by Mas' party CDC and replacing the defunct Convergence and Union (CiU), finished fourth. This was seen as a major setback for the sovereignist cause, as Catalans had massively voted for a political option that supported the celebration of a referendum on the independence issue but that also advocated for Catalonia's permanence within Spain, and was said to motivate the CUP's subsequent definitive denial to re-elect Mas as regional premier. After the general election, JxSí made a last offer to the CUP, which involved a "transitional presidency" formed by four people, which would, nonetheless, be led by Mas.

Following a long process of internal debate to determine whether the party should support Mas' investiture or force the call of a new election, the CUP's assembly held on 27 December 2015 resulted in a draw between both options, with 1,515 out of 3,030 registered party supporters voting for each choice. CUP leaders called on JxSí to come up with an alternative candidate for premier, something which the latter's member parties, however, refused. Finally, the CUP's leadership narrowly decided in a vote held on 3 January to definitely oppose Mas' investiture. JxSí members accused the CUP of torpedoing the independentist cause and refused to withdraw Mas' candidacy on the grounds that "there is no alternative". CUP's leader and candidate for the 2015 Catalan election, Antonio Baños, resigned the following day, claiming that he did not share his party's decision as he perceived that it weakened the independence process. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras called on 4 January for both CDC and the CUP to keep negotiating to prevent a new election that he saw as "negative for Catalonia", but avoided to note on whether he thought Artur Mas should step aside or not. Artur Mas stated on 5 January that JxSí was not making any new proposals, pleaded guilt on "having trusted the CUP" and announced that he would sign the election call decree on 11 January for a fresh election to be held on 6 March. Then-acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy acknowledged the same day that he saw "no alternative to a repeat of elections in Catalonia" after the fracture of the pro-independence alliance. This however did not transpire: a last minute deal was struck between JxSí and the CUP to ensure a separatist government, although without Mas as President.

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. in the case of seat projections, they are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.