Next Australian federal election

Previous election

Though federal election outcomes are traditionally called by political commentators on election night, even during the following day the outcome could not be predicted, with many close seats in doubt. After a week of vote counting, still no party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government. Neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party were in a position to concede defeat or claim victory. Many political commentators predicted a hung parliament such as occurred at the 2010 election.

Turnbull repeatedly claimed prior to the election that a vote for a Labor, Green or Independent candidate was a vote for "the Labor/Green/Independent alliance", and also refused to countenance a hung parliament. However, during the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and from independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government. During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament". On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day. In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a one-seat majority government. It was the first election result since federation where the post-election opposition won more seats than the post-election government in both of Australia's two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria.

Result

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government was re-elected with a reduced 76 seats, a bare one-seat majority. Resulting from the national two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats − totaling 69 seats. On the crossbench the Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes. The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.

The final outcome in the 76-seat Australian Senate took over four weeks to complete despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote. The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three. As per convention, the government and opposition agreed to support a motion in the parliament that the first six senators elected in each state would serve a six-year term, while the last six elected would serve a three-year term.

Marginal seat pendulum

Based on the 2016 post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, this Mackerras pendulum has the Liberal/National Coalition government on 76 of 150 seats with the Labor opposition on 69 seats and a crossbench of five seats.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require Labor with 51.0% of the two-party vote from a 1.4-point two-party swing or greater, while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require the Coalition with 49.8% of the two-party vote from a 0.6-point two-party swing or greater.

The key marginal seats are as follows:

Retiring MPs and senators

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Labor

National

Timeline

Election date

Section 13 of the Constitution of Australia requires that in half-Senate elections the election of State senators must take place within one year before the places become vacant. As the terms of half the senators end on 30 June 2019, the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2018, and the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is 4 August 2018. There is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, and there are precedents for separate elections; however, governments and the electorate have long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously. The latest that a half-senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the new senators take up office on 1 July 2019. This took over a month in 2016, so practically the half-senate election needs to be held no later than 18 May 2019.

A House-only election can be called at any time during the parliamentary term. Whether held simultaneously with an election for the Senate or separately, an election for the House of Representatives must be held on or before 2 November 2019, which is calculated under provisions of the Constitution and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA). Section 28 of the Constitution provides that the term of a House of Representatives expires three years from the first sitting of the House, unless it is dissolved earlier. The last federal election was held on 2 July 2016. The 45th Parliament opened on 30 August 2016 and its term would expire on 29 August 2019. Writs for election can be issued up to ten days after a dissolution or expiry of the House. Up to 27 days can be allowed for nominations, and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations, resulting in the latest election date for the House of Representatives of Saturday, 2 November 2019.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives. That means any double dissolution must be granted by 28 February 2019. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 4 May 2019. This could only occur if a bill that had passed the House of Representatives was rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Constitutional and legal provisions

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:

Redistributions

It is expected that a South Australian seat will be abolished due to national population shifts which have occurred since the state's last redistribution in 2011 − although South Australia's population is still increasing, faster increases in other states will probably see a reduction in South Australia's representation from 11 to 10 seats in the projected 149-seat House of Representatives. South Australia only relatively recently experienced this, twice, with the seats of Bonython and Hawker ending in 2004 and 1993 respectively. South Australia held a state-record 13 seats between the 1984 enlargement of parliament until 1993. For almost a century beforehand, only one other single-member seat was ever abolished in South Australia, Angas and Angas' earlier incarnation. South Australia is the least-populated state where the current number of seats can decrease, as Tasmania's current representation is the minimum guaranteed by the Constitution.

Northern Territory

On 7 December 2016, the augmented Electoral Commission for the Northern Territory announced the results of its deliberations into the boundaries of Lingiari and Solomon, the two federal electoral divisions in the Northern Territory. New boundaries gazetted from 7 February 2017 will see the remainder of the Litchfield Municipality and parts of Palmerston (the suburbs of Farrar, Johnston, Mitchell, Zuccoli and part of Yarrawonga) transferred from Solomon to Lingiari. Both divisions will retain their current names.