Moneyball

Synopsis

The central premise of Moneyball is that the collective wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and often flawed. Statistics such as stolen bases, runs batted in, and batting average, typically used to gauge players, are relics of a 19th-century view of the game and the statistics available at that time. The book argues that the Oakland A's' front office took advantage of more analytical gauges of player performance to field a team that could better compete against richer competitors in Major League Baseball (MLB).

Rigorous statistical analysis had demonstrated that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success, and the A's became convinced that these qualities were cheaper to obtain on the open market than more historically valued qualities such as speed and contact. These observations often flew in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and the beliefs of many baseball scouts and executives.

By re-evaluating the strategies that produce wins on the field, the 2002 Athletics, with approximately US$44 million in salary, were competitive with larger market teams such as the New York Yankees, who spent over US$125 million in payroll that same season. Because of the team's smaller revenues, Oakland is forced to find players undervalued by the market, and their system for finding value in undervalued players has proven itself thus far. This approach brought the A's to the playoffs in 2002 and 2003.

Lewis explored several themes in the book, such as: insiders vs. outsiders (established traditionalists vs. upstart proponents of sabermetrics), the democratization of information causing a flattening of hierarchies, and "the ruthless drive for efficiency that capitalism demands". The book also touches on Oakland's underlying economic need to stay ahead of the curve; as other teams begin mirroring Beane's strategies to evaluate offensive talent, diminishing the Athletics' advantage, Oakland begins looking for other undervalued baseball skills such as defensive capabilities.

Moneyball also touches on the A's' methods of prospect selection. Sabermetricians argue that a college baseball player's chance of MLB success is much higher than a traditional high school draft pick. Beane maintains that high draft picks spent on high school prospects, regardless of talent or physical potential as evaluated by traditional scouting, are riskier than if they were spent on more polished college players. Lewis cites A's minor leaguer Jeremy Bonderman, drafted out of high school in 2001 over Beane's objections, as but one example of precisely the type of draft pick Beane would avoid. Bonderman had all of the traditional "tools" that scouts look for, but thousands of such players have been signed by MLB organizations out of high school over the years and failed to develop. Lewis explores the A's approach to the 2002 MLB draft, when the team had a run of early picks. The book documents Beane's often-tense discussions with his scouting staff (who favored traditional subjective evaluation of potential rather than objective sabermetrics) in preparation for the draft to the actual draft, which defied all expectations and was considered at the time a wildly successful (if unorthodox) effort by Beane.

In addition, Moneyball traces the history of the sabermetric movement back to such people as Bill James (now a member of the Boston Red Sox front office) and Craig R. Wright. Lewis explores how James' seminal Baseball Abstract, an annual publication that was published from the late 1970s through the late 1980s, influenced many of the young, up-and-coming baseball minds that are now joining the ranks of baseball management.

Impact

Moneyball has entered baseball's lexicon; teams that appear to value the concepts of sabermetrics are often said to be playing "Moneyball." Baseball traditionalists, in particular some scouts and media members, decry the sabermetric revolution and have disparaged Moneyball for emphasizing concepts of sabermetrics over more traditional methods of player evaluation. Nevertheless, Moneyball changed the way many major league front offices do business. In its wake, teams such as the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays have hired full-time sabermetric analysts.

When the New York Mets hired Sandy Alderson – Beane's predecessor and mentor with the A's – as their general manager after the 2010 season, and hired Beane's former associates Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi to the front office, the team was jokingly referred to as the "Moneyball Mets". Like the Oakland A's in the 1990s, the Mets have been directed by their ownership to slash payroll. Under Alderson's tenure, the team payroll dropped below $100 million per year from 2012–14, and the Mets reached the 2015 World Series (defeating the MLB's highest payroll team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, enroute).

Michael Lewis has acknowledged that the book's success may have hurt the Athletics' fortunes as other teams have accepted the use of sabermetrics, reducing the edge that Oakland received from using sabermetric-based evaluations.

Since the book's publication and success, Lewis has discussed plans for a sequel to Moneyball called Underdogs, revisiting the players and their relative success several years into their careers, although only four players from the 2002 draft played much at the Major League level.

People discussed in the book

Moneyball also covers the lives and careers of several baseball personalities. The central one is Billy Beane himself, whose failed playing career is contrasted with wildly optimistic predictions by scouts.

Players and people discussed in Moneyball:

Oakland farm system

Barry Zito – 2002 AL Cy Young winner, part of the "Big 3" with Mulder and Hudson (below)

Mark Mulder – part of the "Big 3" with Zito and Hudson

Tim Hudson – Not drafted by Beane; part of the "Big 3" with Mulder and Zito

Kirk Saarloos

John Baker

Joe Blanton

Jason Giambi – Not drafted by Beane. 2000 AL MVP, signed with the New York Yankees in 2002 for $120 million over 7 years

Miguel Tejada – Not drafted by Beane; 2002 AL MVP

Eric Chavez – Not drafted by Beane; six-time AL Gold Glove winner

Jeremy Brown

Nick Swisher

Bobby Crosby

Mark Teahen

Jeremy Bonderman – traded to the Detroit Tigers in 2002

Oakland bullpen

Jason Isringhausen – signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2001–02 offseason

Billy Koch – 2002 AL Relief Pitcher of the Year

Chad Bradford

Jim Mecir

Ricardo Rincón

Mike Magnante

Other players

Kevin Youkilis – referred to in the book as the "Greek God of Walks". Youkilis was drafted in 2001 by the Boston Red Sox and heavily desired by Beane, who tried to snare him via a failed three-team trade discussed in the book.

Prince Fielder – son of former slugger Cecil Fielder, drafted in 2002 year by the Milwaukee Brewers. Claimed by Beane to be "too fat" even for the A's.

B. J. Upton, now known by his birth name of Melvin Upton, Jr. – cited as an example of "bad high school" draft pick.

Scott Kazmir – cited as an example of teams' – in this case the New York Mets – foolishness in drafting high school pitchers because of the difficulty in projecting their future, as opposed to college players.

Jamie Moyer – then with the Seattle Mariners

Ray Durham – traded to the Oakland A's in the middle of 2002, cited as a potent base-stealer and "rent-a-player": an impending free agent who would likely attract large offers from other clubs with larger available payrolls than Oakland's while leaving Oakland with draft picks in the next year's draft, a rule since abolished with the 2011 Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement. Durham would eventually sign with the San Francisco Giants.

Terrence Long

Erik Hiljus

David Justice

Jeremy Giambi

Alex Rodriguez – Beane compares A-Rod's stats to those of Eric Chavez.

Greg Maddux

Cliff Floyd

Alfonso Soriano

Jeff Francis

Zack Greinke – drafted by the Kansas City Royals in 2002

Scott Hatteberg

Scouts, management, and journalists

Billy Beane – GM

Paul DePodesta – Assistant GM

David Forst – scout

Grady Fuson – Head of scouting

Ron "Hoppy" Hopkins – National cross-checker scout

Chris Pittaro – scout

J. P. Ricciardi – worked under Beane and DePodesta as Director of Player Personnel

Sandy Alderson – Beane's predecessor and mentor with the Athletics

Peter Gammons – Sportswriter

Art Howe – Oakland manager

Ron Washington – Athletics coach

Joe Morgan – Hall of Fame second baseman and ESPN broadcaster

Steve Phillips – New York Mets GM

Bill James – baseball writer and statistician whose Baseball Abstract books greatly influenced Beane

Omar Minaya – Montreal Expos GM

Beane's list

Beane assembled a list of twenty players they would draft in a "perfect world"; meaning if money was no object and they didn't have to compete with the other twenty-nine teams.

The list, and the teams who drafted them:

Pitchers

Jeremy Guthrie – Cleveland, #22 (1st round)

Joe Blanton – Oakland, #24 (1st round)

Jeff Francis – Colorado, #9 (1st round)

Luke Hagerty – Chicago Cubs, #32 (1st round)

Ben Fritz – Oakland, #30 (1st round)

Robert Brownlie – Chicago Cubs, #21 (1st round)

Stephen Obenchain – Oakland, #37 (1st round)

Bill Murphy – Oakland, #98 (3rd round)

Hitters

Nick Swisher – Oakland, #16 (1st round)

Russ Adams – Toronto, #14 (1st round)

Khalil Greene – San Diego, #13 (1st round)

John McCurdy – Oakland, #26 (1st round)

Mark Teahen – Oakland, #39 (1st round)

Jeremy Brown – Oakland, #35 (1st round)

Steve Stanley – Oakland, #67 (2nd round)

John Baker – Oakland, #128 (4th round)

Mark Kiger – Oakland, #158 (5th round)

Brian Stavisky – Oakland, #188 (6th round)

Shaun Larkin – Cleveland, #274 (9th round)

Brant Colamarino – Oakland, #218 (7th round)

Oakland's picks

#18 – Nick Swisher – successful major leaguer, traded to Chicago White Sox after 2007

#24 – Joe Blanton – successful major leaguer, traded to Philadelphia Phillies in 2008

#26 – John McCurdy – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2006.

#30 – Ben Fritz – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2010.

#35 – Jeremy Brown – MLB experience consists of 11 plate appearances for Oakland in 2006. Last played minor league ball in 2007.

#37 – Stephen Obenchain – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2006.

#39 – Mark Teahen – spent parts of eight seasons in MLB, played only in the minors in 2012 and 2013.

#67 – Steve Stanley – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2006.

#98 – Bill Murphy – MLB debut in 2007, pitched approximately 18 innings in MLB. Has played only in foreign and minor leagues since 2009.

#128 – John Baker – traded to the Florida Marlins and has played around 300 total games in six MLB seasons.

#158 – Mark Kiger – MLB experience consists of 1⅔ innings at second base for Oakland in the 2006 American League Championship Series. Never played in the MLB regular season. Last played minor league ball in 2009.

#188 – Brian Stavisky – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2010.

#218 – Brant Colamarino – never made MLB. Last played minor league ball in 2007.

Reception

Richard H. Thaler of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and Cass R. Sunstein of the University of Chicago Law School described the book as a "sensation... Lewis has a wonderful story to tell, and he tells it wonderfully... Lewis also raises some serious puzzles that he does not resolve, and his account has some large and perhaps profound implications that he does not much explore."

Film

A movie based on the book was released in 2011. Actor Brad Pitt stars as Billy Beane, while Jonah Hill plays a fictional character based on Paul DePodesta; Philip Seymour Hoffman plays A's manager Art Howe. Academy Award-winning screenwriter Steve Zaillian was hired to write the script, and Steven Soderbergh was slated to direct, replacing David Frankel. However, in June, 2009, because of conflicts over a revised script by Soderbergh, Sony put the movie on hold just days before it was scheduled to begin shooting. Soderbergh was eventually let go.

Bennett Miller took over directing duties, and Aaron Sorkin rewrote the script. Shooting began on July, 2010 at Blair Field, the Sports Stadium for Wilson High School (Long Beach, California), Sony Studios in Culver City, Dodger Stadium, and the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. The film was released in theaters on September 23, 2011. Moneyball was nominated for six Academy Awards including Best Actor and Best Picture.

In popular culture

The book is parodied in the Simpsons episode "MoneyBART", in which Lisa manages Bart's Little League baseball team using sabermetric principles. Bill James made an appearance in this episode.