Med Jones

The Great Recession of 2007-2008

Med Jones is one of few economists who predicted the economic crisis of 2007-2008 caused by the burst of the housing bubble. In a 2006 white paper, he listed three major U.S. economic risks for the decade between 2007-2017. The risks included the housing bubble, consumer debt, and the government debt including the social security and medicaid entitlements. He warned that the crash of the housing bubble will not be limited to the housing sector of the financial market but will undermine the US economic confidence which is the worst kind of risk that an economy might face.

Economic forecasting is the holy-grail of investing. Wall Street spends billions of dollars on economic research and analysis. Accurate economic forecasting is regarded by academics and investors to be next to impossible. Yet, sometimes some analysts emerge with a specific view that contradicts the mainstream and with exceptional accuracy they prove the most respected economists and investors wrong. Among the economists who predicted the crisis, Jones' predictions are considered the most accurate.

Investors and investment advisers who follow his predictions regard him among the prominent independent thinking money managers and economists.

His Views on Economic Forecasting and Wall Street

Despite having the most accurate forecasting record of the great recession and recovery, he advises investors against using his own forecasts. Jones believes economic forecasting is unreliable and Wall Street is a casino. In one interview, he says "I do not advise anyone to invest based on my outlook of the economy. The truth is that when people invest on Wall Street, they are essentially making bets about the future.” In addition, although he is known for his work on economics, he tries to distance himself from the economic profession.

Gross National Happiness Index - GNH Index

Mr. Jones is credited with the introduction of Gross National Happiness Index (GNH Index) Initiative in 2005 also known as Gross National Well-being or GNW Index. In 2006 he published a white paper titled the American Pursuit of Unhappiness calling on policy makers, economists and researchers to review and improve upon the proposed GNH Index framework. The initiative was widely referenced by academic and research papers citing the GNH index as a model for economic development and measurement

The term Gross National Happiness or GNH was coined in 1972 by Bhutan's fourth Dragon King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck. The GNH philosophy suggested that the ideal of government is to promote happiness. The philosophy remained difficult to implement due to the subjective nature of happiness and the lack of exact quantitative definition of GNH and the lack of a practical model to measure the impact of economic policies on the subjective well-being of the citizens.

A second-generation GNH concept, treating happiness as a socioeconomic development metric, was first proposed by Mr. Jones in 2005. The aim of the proposed development policy framework and measurement system was to bridge the development gap between what Jones saw as "the objective, yet incomplete, western socioeconomic development policy framework and the holistic, yet subjective, eastern philosophy of GNH."

The proposed metric measures socioeconomic development by tracking seven wellness development areas: economic, environmental, physical, mental, workplace, social, and political via objective data and subjective results via survey. GNH value is proposed to be an index function of the total average per capita. He suggested the development of a global GNH Index survey that can benchmark the subjective well-being in different countries, correlate happiness levels with differences in local policies to help identify best practices and major socioeconomic policy issues. The first Global Gross National Happiness Index Survey was launched in 2005.

After the introduction of GNH index initiative in 2005, several initiative were launched that adapted the gross national happiness index to their community.

In the United States, the Gallup poll system launched the happiness survey in 2009 collecting data on national scale. The Gallup Well-Being Index was modeled after the GNH Index framework of 2005. The Well-Being Index score is an average of six sub-indexes that measures life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. In October 2009, the USA scored 66.1/100.

In a report (2012) prepared for the US Congressman Hansen Clarke, R, Researchers Ben, Beachy and Juston Zorn, at John F. Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University, recommended that "the Congress should prescribe the broad parameters of new, carefully designed supplemental national indicators; it should launch a bipartisan commission of experts to address unresolved methodological issues, and include alternative indicators." They proposed that the government can use the survey results to see which well-being dimensions are least satisfied and which districts and demographic groups are most deficient, so as to allocate resources accordingly. The report list the Gross National Happiness Index and its seven measurement area as one of the main frameworks to consider.

In 2007 Thailand releases Green and Happiness Index (GHI).

In 2011 UN General Assembly Resolution 65/309, titled "Happiness: towards a holistic approach to development"

In 2011 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) launches "Better Life Index" (BLI).

In 2011 Canadian Index of Wellbeing Network (CIW Network) releases The Canadian Index of Wellbeing (CIW)

In 2011, a leading Israeli newspaper Haaretz, published an article suggesting that western GDP economics is an incomplete development model and called for the adoption of Bhutan's GNH philosophy and Jones' GNH Index in Israel.

In 2012, the city of Seattle in Washington, launched its own happiness index initiative, emphasizing measures similar to the GNH Index.

In 2012 South Korea Launched Happiness Index citing the GNH Index framework.

In India, Government of Goa in (2012) cited the GNH Index as a model for measuring happiness.

In 2014 The government of Dubai launched its localized Happiness Index to measure the public’s contentment and satisfaction with different government services.

In 2014 the United Kingdom launched its own well-being and happiness statistics .

In 2012 Professor Peter T. Coleman, a world-renowned director of the International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution at Columbia University, suggested that Jones' GNH Index initiative could inform the Global Peace Index Initiative GPI.

Other noteworthy Happiness Index initiatives that followed the GNH Index of 2005 are the Bhutan GNH Index in 2010, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD Better Life Index in 2011, World Happiness Report in 2011 and the Social Progress Index SPI in 2013

Psychology of Happiness and Unhappiness

In an article based on a qualitative and quantitative research from 1998-2001, he identified four types of personalities; pragmatic pessimists, irrational pessimists, pragmatic optimists, and irrational optimists. According to the research, happy people tend to be optimists and unhappy people tend to be pessimists. As for the cause and effect of happiness or unhappiness, the research was not conclusive. In some cases, optimism appears to be the effect not the cause of well-being and in other cases it appears to be the cause. However, during the study, researchers could see how positive actions, risk management, optimism, and happiness reinforce each other. The same dynamics were true for pessimism, negative actions, risk aversion and unhappiness. The research distinguishes between optimism and positive affirmations. Most of the time, positive affirmations do not work alone and must be backed by positive action and reinforcing rewards.

Political Views

Med Jones is identified as an independent in his profile on Wall Street Economists