In Australian politics, a leadership spill (or simply spill) is a declaration that the leadership of a parliamentary party is vacant, and open for re-election. A spill may involve all leadership positions (leader and deputy leader in both houses), or just the leader. Where a rival to the existing leader calls for a spill, it may also be called a leadership challenge.
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When a leadership vacancy arises due to the voluntary resignation or death of the incumbent, the resulting leadership election is not a leadership spill. Therefore, the election for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Australia after the disappearance of Harold Holt was not a leadership spill despite having four candidates.
In Australian English the use of "spill" in this context has a long history with its first recorded appearance traced to a Canberra Times article dated 20 August 1945.
A leadership election may result in a new leader, or may confirm the status quo. If the party in question is in government, the election of a new leader will result in a new Prime Minister, Premier or Chief Minister; if the party is the opposition, the election of a new leader will result in a new Opposition Leader.
There were 72 leadership spills between 1970 and 2015, which became increasingly common in the early 21st century - none in the 1960s, 10 in the 1970s, 18 in the 1980s, 13 in the 1990s and 31 between 2000-2015. They are three times more likely to occur when a party is in opposition compared to when it holds government. The frequent leadership spills and political instability in the 21st century - which saw five Prime Ministers between 2010 and 2015 - has led to Australia being dubbed "coup capital of the democratic world".
Process
In the Westminster system of government, the leader of the party which forms Her Majesty's Government becomes the Prime Minister, while the leader of the largest party not in government becomes leader of the Opposition. Contenders for the role of leader of a major party usually (but not always) come from the cabinet or shadow cabinet.
A leadership spill occurs when a member or members of the parliamentary party feel that the leader is taking the party in an undesirable direction or is simply not delivering on promises made to those who elected the leader, and does not have the numbers to back his or her position. A spill may be triggered by consistently poor opinion polls.
A spill can be initiated by the party leader in office, usually in the hope of gaining a fresh mandate to quell dissenting voices in the party. It may occur at any time, leaving the person in the leadership position always 'on notice'.
Federal ALP changes
Following his return to the leadership of the Australian Labor Party in 2013, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sought changes to the party's rules so that leadership spills would be more difficult to launch in future. This includes the requirement for 75% support within the Australian Labor Party Caucus for a special leadership ballot against a sitting Labor prime minister, or 60% against an opposition leader. The changes, which also provided for equally weighted voting rights between the caucus and party rank and file members in future leadership ballots, were subsequently adopted by Labor.
Impact
Historically, a governing party's replacement of its leader fails to improve its electoral fortunes, with 90% losing their majority at the next election between 1970 and 2014. The chances of success are higher when the party is in opposition, leading to success at the subsequent election about 50% of the time.
Notable spills
The following spills occurred while the leader was serving their term, rather than in the aftermath of an unsuccessful election when their term would come to an end. Colours denote the party in which the spill occurred. Blue represents the Liberal party, red the Labor party, and green the National party.