KN 08

Development

Mock-ups of the missile were first displayed during a military parade in April 2012 to mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung. Six missiles were carried on 16-wheel transporter erector launchers, similar in size to those used by the Russian RT-2PM2 Topol-M missiles. The TELs are thought to be based on WS-51200 frames made by Wanshan Special Vehicle in China, possibly using technology from Minsk Automobile Plant. UN investigators have concluded that the TELs were Chinese WS51200 trucks exported to North Korea for lumber transport. The North Koreans converted them into TELs by installing hydraulic gear and controls to erect a missile. Despite being converted to fire a missile, the truck would not be likely to survive damage from the rocket exhaust like a purpose-built TEL, making it a single-use launcher.

Mock-ups were again paraded in 2013, with fewer discrepancies between them than in the previous year. The KN-08 was paraded again to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Korean Workers Party on 11 October 2015. In this parade, the missile featured a modified smaller-in-length but larger-in-diameter third stage plus re-entry vehicle section design, which has led to suggestions that North Korea might have perfected nuclear warhead miniaturization.

The KN-08 mock-up dimensions are estimated to be: length of about 17.1 metres, and first and second stage diameter of about 1.9 metres, reducing to about 1.25 metres for the third stage. Liquid-fueled ICBMs generally only have two stages for best performance, with a few exceptions (usually when an existing design is upgraded). The three stage design of the KN-08 is puzzling. While a three-stage design is common for solid propellant ICBMs, western analysts say that North Korea lacks the experience and ability to develop a solid-fueled ICBM.

In early 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that although they had not seen the KN-08 tested, they believed North Korea had the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08, and it was prudent to plan for that threat. The KN-08 theoretically poses a threat to the U.S. mainland, able to deliver a 500–700 kg (1,100–1,500 lb) payload 7,500–9,000 km (4,700–5,600 mi) to the American West Coast. Practically speaking however, its accuracy is likely "barely adequate" to target large cities, mobility would be limited to paved roads, and the system will require 1–2 hours of pre-launch fueling. The KN-08 may achieve an emergency operational status by 2020.

New KN-08 based missile: KN-14

The mock-up displayed by North Korea in October 2015 was significantly different to previous years, with two stages rather than three. Overall size was somewhat reduced, with larger fuel tanks for the two stages. It was no longer built with extensive riveting, suggesting a more modern structural design, with reduced weight.

On 31 March 2016, the Washington Free Beacon reported that North Korea this missile shown in 2015 is a new missile, KN-14 instead of KN08. The KN-14 missile, being similar to Russian R-29 SLBM in terms of appearance, but with a range of 8,000 to 12,000 km. Therefore, KN-14 is also given a nickname of "KN-08 on steroids". Neither KN08 nor KN14 have flight tested as of 2016 April, but the report claimed that North Korea has tested the missiles in "all other aspects". This report noted that Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in this report concluded KN-14 with a 10,000 km range could hit Chicago and Toronto, but insufficient range to hit Washington from the furthest North point in North Korea. The report is also quickly republished in Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean media.

Reactions from Chinese military expert

For this new missile, the CCTV 4 aired a 9-minute-long interview with a Chinese military expert discussing about KN-14 and North Korea's potential in future. This video was subsequently uploaded into other Chinese Internet TV.

The Chinese expert in the video has estimated that North Korea can have a true ICBM strike against US mainland between 2021 and 2026 if they can successfully master their Musudan missile. He stated that the technology and the theory behind an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile is exactly the same as an ICBM except that ICBM involves more stage separation in order for the missile to have a longer range. North Korea have successfully demonstrated their stage separation technology by the latest 2 satellite launches in 2012 and 2016.

However, he have noted two weakness of North Korea missile's development program. One is that the North Korea missiles are based on the older missile designs. Therefore, their flaws continued in their new missile development since North Korea has done only minimal flight tests compared to other countries with active missile development program. The other aspect is that all of North Korea ballistic missiles except KN-02 are liquid fueled, and therefore the procedure to prepare, fuel, and launch takes hours. This amount of time would give enemies such as the United States or South Korea time to conduct airstrikes and destroy the missiles before they could be launched.

However, North Korea may also be studying Soviet encapsulation techniques such as used in the UR-100 ICBM, where each missile comes prefueled in a maintenance-free capsule with a mean time between overhauls of several years and a preparation time required before launch reduces to minutes.