The Junkeer Classification is measure of the volatility of the two-party-preferred voting of an Australian electorate or polling place within an Australian General Election or a State General Election. By using the classification a polling place or electorate can be classified into five distinct categories; these are "Safe Labor"; "Risk Labor"; "Too Close to Call"; "Risk Liberal"; "Safe Liberal."
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Classification description
The classification is based on a volatility score, which is determined by the following formula:
(Last Election Two Party Preferred Labor Vote percentage) - 0.5 / Average Two Party Preferred Swing in last three elections
Using the score above, the classification is then completed as follows:
Popular Use
The Junkeer Classification is most known for its use by Australian marketing analytics agency Torque Data, which used the classification to determine the key nineteen seats (classified "Too Close to Call") - and within those seats the specific polling places - that would decide the outcome of the 2013 Australian Federal Election. Using catchment area analysis of these key polling places, Torque Data was able to determine the types of people whose vote would have the most weight in these key areas. Torque Data was able to validate this process by conducting a small poll (n=1000) of only these types of voters and used its results to predict a 3.8% swing to the Liberal/National Party Coalition and for it to win ninety seats, two months prior to the election. The actual result was ninety seats to the Coalition, with a 3.6% swing.