Jay ulfelder forecasting conflict
Jay Ulfelder is a political scientist in the United States who works in the realm of political forecasting, specifically forecasting about political development and instability of different forms around the world. He maintains a blog titled Dart-Throwing Chimp that includes commentary on his work and on geopolitical forecasting at large. He is the former research director of the Political Instability Task Force commission by the Central Intelligence Agency.
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Why dictators build stuff that crumbles jay ulfelder at tedxtbilisi
Reception
Ulfelder is an occasional contributor to Foreign Policy. One of his pieces on why forecasting political violence and unusual situations around the world was considerably harder than forecasting the results of elections in the United States received a lengthy response from Ward and Mitternich.
Ulfelder has been interviewed by Strife blog and by the Center for Data Innovation.
Ulfelder has also been cited and quoted as an expert on political forecasting and political instability in the New York Times and the Washington Post.