Cyclone Guba

Meteorological history

On November 12, a weak tropical low developed within the Solomon Sea, near the Papua New Guinean island of New Britain. During that day, the system's low level circulation centre drifted south-westwards, within an area favourable for further development, with low vertical wind shear and a good outflow. However, the disturbance could not significantly develop further at this time, as it was interacting with New Guinea. The system subsequently either passed near or over the south-eastern tip of New Guinea and moved into the north-western Coral Sea, where it quickly developed further with the aid of a south-easterly wind surge. As a result, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center initiated advisories on the system and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 02P during October 13. The Au

TCWC Brisbane initiated tropical cyclone advices on the tropical low early on November 14, with a cyclone watch declared for the northern coastal and island communities in the Cape York Peninsula. Shortly after, TCWC Brisbane upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone Guba, a name assigned by the TCWC in Port Moresby. The name Guba is a boy's name in Papua New Guinea meaning 'a rain squall on the sea'. Guba drifted erratically off the Queensland coast for the next two days, and cyclone warnings were cancelled when TCWC Brisbane expected the cyclone to remain slow-moving. Guba began drifting southwards and intensified on November 16, becoming a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. Guba was a small, but intense system, forming a well-defined eye. Guba began weakening on November 17 and was downgraded to a Category 2. After downgraded to a Category 1 cyclone on November 18, it started to accelerate to the west towards the Queensland coast. Cyclone watches and warnings were declared again on November 19 as the cyclone was expected to move closer to the coast and intensify. This did not materialise, however, as Guba then turned northwards later that day, avoiding the Australian mainland, then northeast while it continued to weaken. TCWC Brisbane downgraded Guba below tropical cyclone strength, and issued its last advisory early on November 20.

Impact

As a tropical low, the precursor to Guba brought torrential rains to portions of Papua New Guinea, leading to widespread landslides and flooding. The most severe damage took place in Oro Province where 149 people were confirmed to have been killed by the storm. Damage from the storm was believed to have exceeded 500 million kina ($177 million USD).

Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 200 deaths. In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of the flooding. Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as tides in the area reached two metres high. In the provincial capital, Popondetta, the water supply and electrical infrastructure was damaged, and road access was blocked. Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, suspended flights to Popondetta's main airport. The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing the evacuation of about 100 people. The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province. Six days of torrential rain led to a damage total of 200 million kina ($71.4 million USD). The torrential rain was the worst seen in the region in 30 years, according to the local people.

Aftermath

The Papua New Guinea government declared a state of emergency in Oro Province and gave 50 million kina to help the province's communities. The Papua New Guinea Defence Force and local United Nations officials will assist in the relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. Australia donated A$1 million in humanitarian relief to the affected regions. Five Royal Australian Air Force aircraft, three Australian Army helicopters a Royal Australian Navy landing craft and other Australian Defence Force personnel were sent to Papua New Guinea to assist in the relief; along with supplies which include water purification tablets, water containers, emergency shelters, blankets and generators. The AusAID organised a mission to assess the damage to infrastructure and to report priority relief needs.

Naming

Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba, with a minimum pressure of 970 hPa (mbar), was the second weakest cyclone within the South Pacific, that either the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Brisbane, Australia or the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Nadi, Fiji had monitored in the south Pacific that season.

This was the first time that a cyclone had been called Guba anywhere in the world. The name Guba was retired by the World Meteorological Organization and was replaced with the name Maila. This was because tropical cyclones rarely form in TCWC Port Moresby Area of Responsibility and when a cyclone does form it automatically gets its name retired.

Guba was the first tropical cyclone to be assigned a name from Port Moresby's name lists since Tropical Cyclone Epi in 2003. It is the first cyclone to occur in the Queensland region in the month of November since 1977.