Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

Background

During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, then leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, announced that he would not seek a third term; he was therefore expected to stand down before the next general election, although he spoke of serving a full term.

Following a manifesto commitment, Cameron and the Conservative Party introduced legislation for a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, which was held on 23 June 2016. Cameron and the Government supported a Remain vote, although the Conservative Party was officially neutral in the campaign and many Conservative politicians, including some Cabinet members, campaigned to Leave. During the campaign, there was speculation as to whether Cameron would resign if Leave won, but on the day of the referendum both Leave and Remain supporting Conservatives called for him to stay whatever the result.

A Leave win was announced on the morning of 24 June 2016 and Cameron announced shortly afterwards that he would be stepping down. He announced that he would continue in post while the leadership election was ongoing, with the new leader to be in place in time for the party conference in October. However, the unfolding of events would result in a much earlier departure.

The campaign was framed by whether candidates supported Remain or Leave, with initial speculation by some analysts being that a Leave supporter would be more likely to win. Based on media speculation, the front runners on 29 June were Boris Johnson (Leave) and Theresa May (Remain), with Johnson the early favourite. Johnson's candidacy was expected to be supported by Michael Gove, the two having worked together for Leave through the referendum campaign, as well as Andrea Leadsom. However, earlier that week, May was leading by a narrow margin in opinion polls commissioned by The Times and by The Independent.

Three hours before the nominations closed, Michael Gove, previously seen as a key ally to the Johnson campaign, announced his candidacy, stating that he had reluctantly come to the conclusion that Johnson "cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead." Johnson subsequently withdrew from the leadership race. The Telegraph stated that Gove's actions in undermining Johnson's leadership aspirations constituted "the most spectacular political assassination in a generation." Gove's move was compared to the betrayals of fiction with, for example, Johnson's father, Stanley Johnson, quoting "Et tu Brute". Some of Johnson's allies subsequently began moving to supporting May because they perceived a "systematic and calculated plot" by Gove to remove their candidate from the race.

By 5 July 2016, Gove was in a distant third place in the leadership race based on the number of endorsements from other MPs. He was eliminated in the second MP ballot.

A post contest analysis in the Daily Telegraph noted that the £275,000 contributions to Theresa May's campaign "dwarfed her rivals" and Cameron's original honours list contained the names of 2 major Conservative party donors who supported her campaign.

Campaign and key issues

The initial days of the campaign remained overshadowed by the fallout from Gove's entry into the race and Johnson's departure. May gathered the most MP support early on. The current Chief Whip, Gavin Williamson was May's parliamentary campaign manager and responsible for rallying this support together with a small group of MPs, including Julian Smith, Kris Hopkins, Simon Kirby, Karen Bradley and George Hollingberry. In the initial days of the campaign, Leadsom said that she would not rule out involving Nigel Farage, then the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), in Brexit negotiations; the May campaign criticised Leadsom for claimed UKIP links. Leadsom had approached the Johnson campaign with a proposed deal not to run in exchange for being made one of his top three ministers. Johnson agreed to the deal, but was too late in communicating the decision and Leadsom chose to run for leader.

All five candidates for the Conservative leadership have said that they would not call an early general election, relying instead on the Conservative mandate secured at the 2015 election. All five candidates have also rejected the idea of calling a second referendum on British withdrawal from the EU, pledging to take the UK out of the union, although on different timeframes.

Among the key issues that emerged during the Conservative leadership campaign were:

A Guardian editorial noted that the Brexit-dominated leadership campaign presented a danger that the next prime minister would be chosen on this basis when several major domestic issues will also demand the prime minister's attention, such as the disputes between the government and unions representing teachers and junior doctors.

An interview with Leadsom in The Times early July created some controversy. The article quoted Leadsom as saying that motherhood gave her a better perspective than May, although Leadsom protested the article misrepresented her views. She later apologised to May. There was also controversy about claimed inaccuracies in Leadsom's CV. Meanwhile, Crabb, after his candidacy had ended, was reported to have been sexting a woman despite being married and stressing family values in his campaign.

On 11 July, Leadsom withdrew, arguing May should become leader promptly.

Election procedure

The election process for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party is overseen by the Conservative 1922 Committee, although election procedures are approved by the Board of the Conservative Party. Nominations for the leadership are invited by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (currently Graham Brady), acting as Returning Officer for all stages of the election. Candidates must be proposed and seconded in writing, with names of the proposers and seconders being published. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is declared elected. If only two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the general membership of the Party. If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary Party on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the general membership of the Party.

A ballot paper is produced and issued to all Conservative Members in the House of Commons, who indicate one choice from the candidates listed. Proxy votes are possible. The ballot is conducted in secret. If there are three candidates in the first ballot, the two who receive the most votes go forward to the general membership. If there are more than three, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and a second ballot, under the same rules, is held the following Thursday. If there are no more than three candidates in the second ballot the two receiving the most votes go forward to the general membership. If a third ballot is required, it is held the following Tuesday. This process is repeated as often as necessary on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays. When a ballot with only three candidates is reached, the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes go forward to the general membership. Candidates may withdraw their names at any time, "up to 24 hours of the opening of the ballot", but no new nominations will be accepted after the first ballot.

The two candidates selected by the Parliamentary Party are then put to the full membership of the Party (specifically, "all the members of the Conservative Party in good standing who have been members for not less than three months prior to the date of the announcement of the Vote of Confidence") in a postal ballot. Each Party member, on a "one member, one vote" basis, may vote for their preferred candidate. It is not explicitly stated in the rules from when the three months applies, in the eventuality of the leader resigning, but Rule 5 in the "Rules for the Election of the Leader" (which appears as Schedule 2 to the Constitution of the Conservative Party) gives this as "immediately prior to the close of the ballot for the election of the Leader". The Chairman of the 1922 Committee consults with the Board of the Conservative Party to agree the closing date for the ballot, which will be "as soon as practicable" after the date of the last ballot in the Parliamentary Party. The chairman, as returning officer, shall agree with the Board who is responsible, under his direction, for the receipt and counting of the votes, and the chairman announces the results "as soon as practicable" to a meeting of the Parliamentary Party and representatives of the Conservative Party.

Should only a single candidate be nominated, or all but one candidate be eliminated or withdraw before the scheduled end of the election (set in this instance as 9 September 2016), that single (or remaining) candidate is elected effectively unopposed without – if applicable – the votes of the party membership being issued (or counted if the ballot papers have already been issued).

Results

The first ballot of MPs was held on 5 July. The results were announced at 18:30 by 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady.

May placed first, far ahead of her closest rival Leadsom. Fifth-place candidate Fox was knocked out of the race and Crabb withdrew, both endorsing May. Gove, Leadsom and May went through to the second ballot held on 7 July. May again was the clear winner, with Leadsom beating Gove, which meant that May and Leadsom went through to the members' ballot, the result of which was due to be announced on 9 September. However, on 11 July, Leadsom withdrew from the race, leaving May as the only candidate. Conservative MP and Chairman of the 1922 Backbench Committee, Graham Brady announced that May would be confirmed as Conservative Party leader as soon as the party's board had been consulted. She was confirmed and on 13 July, David Cameron tendered his resignation as Prime Minister, with May accepting The Queen's invitation to succeed him shortly afterwards. Having been appointed Prime Minister she entered 10 Downing Street with a speech emphasising the term Unionist in the name of the party, reminding all of "the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland."

After she became Prime Minister, May's cabinet appointments tilted to the right, according to The Guardian but her speech clearly targeted the left, with a promise to combat the "burning injustice" in British society and create a union "between all of our citizens" and promising to be an advocate for the "ordinary working-class family" and not for the affluent in the UK. "The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few but by yours. We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. ... When we take the big calls, we'll think not of the powerful, but you. When we pass new laws we'll listen not to the mighty, but to you. When it comes to taxes we'll prioritise not the wealthy but you."

Notes

Timeline

Withdrew

The following individuals announced that they would seek the leadership of the Conservative Party but then eventually did not stand, or withdrew from the race, due to insufficient support or other reasons:

Declined

The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but ruled out a bid or did not stand by the requisite time:

Endorsements

N.B. MPs are not required to vote as per their public endorsements.

Polls via polling organisations

Note some polls have asked respondents how they would vote in certain head-to-head scenarios, as indicated below.