Canadian public debt

History

Canada's federal debt grew steadily between 5% and 10% per year until 1975. For the next 12 years it grew on average over 20% per year. It surpassed $100 billion in 1981, $200 billion in 1985, $300 billion in 1988, $400 billion in 1992, and $500 billion in 1994. It peaked at $563 billion in 1997, before then declining to $458 billion by 2008.

With a recession, and an increase in federal spending from 2008, the federal debt grew by $5.8 billion in 2008–09. Large annual deficits from 2008 to 2013 has Canadian debt surpassing the $600 billion mark by November 2012, making it larger than the 1997 peak in absolute dollars (although far smaller in comparison to GDP). Starting in 2014, Canada returned to balanced budgets and has posted a small surplus.

Foreign ownership

In 1960, 4% of the Canadian government debt was held by foreign investors.

From 2009-2010 to 2013-2014, the amount of the Canadian's debt held by foreign investors passed from 15% to 27% with a peak at 30% in 2012-2013. Even if growing, this level is still lower than most G7 countries in 2013-2014 (France, 64%, Germany, 62%, United States, 48%, Italy, 33%, United Kingdom, 29% and Japan, 8%).

Public debt held by Canadian provinces

In fiscal year 2016-2017, the debt-to-GDP ratios of the provinces are projected to range from 3.3% for Alberta to 49.5% for Newfoundland & Labrador.

Calculating and projecting the debt

In 2002–2003, Canada changed its calculation for net debt. Before this, net debt was defined as the total liabilities minus total assets; now it is the total liabilities minus financial assets, as the government prefers the concept of "accumulated deficit", which corresponds to the old definition of net debt.

Risks of high debt-to-GDP ratio

Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff warned about the dramatic risks entailed when public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90 percent in their book entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009). The book was published just after the Financial crisis of 2007–2008. In This Time is Different they studied the striking similarities of the recurring booms and busts that have characterized financial history. The first condition, suggested by a paper written by Rogoff and Reinhart, has been criticized for major calculation errors. In fact, the average GDP growth at public debt/GDP ratios over 90 percent is not dramatically different from when debt/GDP ratios are lower.

Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin reviewed an influential, widely cited research paper entitled, "Growth in a time of debt", by Reinhart and Rogoff Herndon and Pollin argued that "coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period." Their research had significant basic computation errors that, when corrected, undermined the central claim of the book that too much debt causes recession.

Rogoff and Reinhardt claimed that their fundamental conclusions were accurate, despite the errors.

According to Hendron, "In their research Rogoff and Reinhart made a coding error which excluded Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, and Denmark from their analysis. Without data from these countries there is a "0:3 percentage-point error in R and R's published average real GDP growth in the highest public debt/GDP category. It also overstates growth in the lowest public debt/GDP category (0 to 30 percent) by +0:1 percentage point and understates growth in the second public debt/GDP category (30 to 60 percent) by −0.2 percentage point."

"More significant are Rogoff and Reinhart's data exclusions with three other countries: Australia (1946-1950), New Zealand (1946-1949), and Canada (1946-1950). The exclusions for New Zealand are of particular significance. This is because all four of the excluded years were in the highest, 90 percent and above, public debt/GDP category. Real GDP growth rates in those years were 7.7, 11.9, 9.9, and 10.8 percent. After the exclusion of these years, New Zealand contributes only one year to the highest public debt/GDP category, 1951, with a real GDP growth rate of 7.6 percent."

"For example, Canada spent 5 years in the highest public debt/GDP category (4.5 percent of the 110 country-years in this category) and Canada's average real GDP growth during these 5 years was 3.0 percent per year. However the Rogoff and Reinhart spreadsheet error and the RR years exclusion result in Canada not providing any data for the computation of the average for the highest debt/GDP category." p. 9.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the combined private and public debt of 18 OECD countries nearly quadrupled between 1980 and 2010, and will likely continue to grow, reaching between 250% (for Italy) and about 600% (for Japan) by 2040. A BIS study released in June 2012 warns that budgets of most advanced economies, excluding interest payments, "would need 20 consecutive years of surpluses exceeding 2 per cent of gross domestic product – starting now – just to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back to its pre-crisis level". The same authors found in a previous study that increased financial burden imposed by ageing populations and lower growth makes it unlikely that indebted economies can grow out of their debt problem if only one of the following three conditions is met:

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) adds that if the overall debt load continues to grow faster than the economy, then large-scale debt restructuring becomes inevitable. To prevent a vicious upward debt spiral from gaining momentum the authors urge policy makers to "act quickly and decisively" and aim for an overall debt level well below 180 percent for the private and government sector. This number is based on the assumption that governments, nonfinancial corporations, and private households can each sustain a debt load of 60 percent of GDP, at an interest rate of 5 percent and a nominal economic growth rate of 3 percent per year. Lower interest rates and/or higher growth would help reduce the debt burden further.

Proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) do not believe that debt-to-GDP ratios pose risks to countries with floating, non-convertible currencies such as Canada. Australian economist Bill Mitchell explains:

In MMT, we see public debt as private wealth and the interest payments as private income. The outstanding public debt is really just an expression of the accumulated budget deficits that have been run in the past. These budget deficits have added financial assets to the private sector, providing the demand for goods and services that have allowed us to maintain income growth. And that income growth has allowed us to save and accumulate financial assets at a far greater rate than we would have been able to without the deficits.

The only issues a progressive person might have with public debt would be the equity considerations of who owns the debt and whether there is an equitable provision of private wealth coming from the deficits. There is a debate to be had about that, but there is no reason to obsess over the level of outstanding public debt. The government can always honor its debt; it can never go bankrupt. There’s no question that the debt obligations will be met. There’s no risk. What’s more, this debt provides firms, households, and others in the private sector a vehicle to park their saved wealth in a risk-free form.

Advocacy Groups

Generation Squeeze is a Canadian not-for-profit organization advocating for intergenerational equity.

Generation Screwed is Canadian not-for-profit organization advocating against government borrowing.