United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
6. New York Times: Lean Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 46%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386. Kerry raised $6,125,128.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.

Analysis

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided one-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization. African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s. Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting. Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics. Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base. Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts.

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
2. Loretta H. Tate
3. Theodore C. Brown
4. Woodrow Harris
5. Keith C. Drake
6. Wendell S. Walker
7. Peter E. Broadbent
8. Sean Michael Spicer
9. Lloyd C. Martin
10. Dorothy L. Simpson
11. Carlton John Davis
12. Charles E. Dane
13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel