United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2008

Primaries

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican
2. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
3. Takeaway: Solid McCain
4. Election Projection: Solid McCain
5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Republican
6. Washington Post: Solid McCain
7. Politico: Solid McCain
8. Real Clear Politics: Solid McCain
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain
10. CQ Politics: Safe Republican
11. New York Times: Solid Republican
12. CNN: Safe Republican
13. NPR: Solid McCain
14. MSNBC: Solid McCain
15. Fox News: Republican
16. Associated Press: Republican
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican

Polling

McCain won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 55% to 40%.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,941,065 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,481,341.

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $518,659. The Republican ticket spent just $3,526. Obama visited the state once, going to Nashville. McCain visited the state twice, visiting Nashville and Blountville.

Analysis

Despite narrowly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 when native son Al Gore was on the ticket as Vice President, the state has steadily been trending Republican since then. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2000 over Tennessee native Gore and easily won in 2004 over John Kerry. The state was one of five states that swung even more Republican in 2008 with John McCain soundly defeating Barack Obama in the Volunteer State. 2008 marked the first time since 1960 whereby the state was carried by the losing presidential candidate.

McCain won both East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee by landslide margins. Historically, East Tennessee, which is a part of Appalachia, has voted Republican ever since the party was founded; however, Middle Tennessee has Democratic roots based on liberal economic policies, most famously Franklin D. Roosevelt's Tennessee Valley Authority. Middle Tennessee voted strongly for Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, but Middle Tennessee native Al Gore narrowly lost the region in 2000—a loss that ultimately cost him Tennessee, and the election. In contrast, it was one of the few regions in the country which voted more Republican than in 2004. This is largely due to a growing social conservative trend in the region, particularly in the Nashville suburbs; some of the most politically active churches in the state are located there.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did improve relatively well upon John Kerry's performances in the traditionally Democratic cities of Nashville and Memphis. In the former, support amongst progressive whites led to a 3-2 victory for Obama in Davidson County. In Memphis, heavy African American turnout ensured him the largest margin in the state in Shelby County, although far from enough to outweigh his losses everywhere else in the state. McCain, however, carried the third- and fourth- most populated cities of Chattanooga in Hamilton County as well as Knoxville in Knox County.

During the same election, at the state level, Republicans picked up four seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives and three seats in the Tennessee Senate to obtain control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

By congressional district

John McCain swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, including three districts held by Democrats. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts anchored by the two largest cities of Memphis and Nashville.

Electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

1. Sara Sellers
2. Jim Haslam
3. Wayne Cropp
4. Lisa Wheeler
5. Beth Campbell
6. Albert McCall
7. Shirley Curry
8. Marilucile Counce
9. Colin Richmond
10. Winfield Dunn
11. Chrystal Horn