7 0 51.35% 47.19% | 943,163 866,831 Start date November 2, 2004 | |
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
Contents
- Primaries
- Predictions
- Polling
- Fundraising
- Advertising and visits
- Analysis
- By congressional district
- Electors
- References
Oregon was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 4.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry won every poll after October 14, and each with between 47% to 53% of the vote. Despite the state having been very competitive in 2000, Oregon is a consistent blue state that a Republican has not won in a presidential election since 1984. Kerry won this state with a larger margin, indicating Oregon's Democratic trend.
Primaries
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
- D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
- Associated Press: Toss Up
- CNN: Kerry
- Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
- Newsweek: Lean Kerry
- New York Times: Lean Kerry
- Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
- Research 2000: Solid Kerry
- Washington Post: Toss Up
- Washington Times: Battleground
- Zogby International: Kerry
- Washington Dispatch: Kerry
Polling
Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $1,497,451. Kerry raised $1,937,916.
Advertising and visits
In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week. Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.
Analysis
After the 2000 election, which saw a really close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target, however Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Most rural counties favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.
By congressional district
Kerry won 3 of 5 congressional districts.
Electors
Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
- Michael J. Bohan
- Shirley A. Cairns
- James L. Edmunson
- Moshe D. Lenske
- Meredith Wood Smith
- Judy A. Sugnet
- Paul F. Zastrow