United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008

Updated on Dec 12, 2023

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Start date November 4, 2008 Home state Illinois Percentage 51.38%		Popular vote 2,940,044 Party Democratic Running mate Joe Biden

The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Ohio was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 4.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state as a major swing state and bellwether. Both major party candidates visited the Buckeye State numerous times and campaigned throughout the state extensively trying to sway moderates and independent voters to their side. The polls in Ohio were fairly even throughout the campaign but Obama had a slight lead as Election Day drew closer. In the end, Obama flipped Ohio into the Democratic column.

Primaries

Ohio Republican primary, 2008

Ohio Democratic primary, 2008

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

D.C. Political Report: Republican
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Takeaway: Toss Up
Election Projection: Leaning Obama
Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat
Washington Post: Leaning Obama
Politico: Leaning Obama
Real Clear Politics: Toss Up
FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama
CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat
New York Times: Toss Up
CNN: Toss Up
NPR: Toss Up
MSNBC: Leaning McCain
Fox News: Toss Up
Associated Press: Toss Up
Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up

Polling

During most of the summer and September, McCain led many state polls and many by 50% of over. Rasmussen had McCain leading with as high as 51% in September. But many voters in the state changed their minds as Obama later gained a steady lead in most polls taken starting in the beginning of October (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis).

Fundraising

Obama raised $7,218,801. McCain raised $5,682,839.

Advertising and visits

A major swing state, Obama spent over $28 million to McCain's $24 million. The Republican ticket visited the state 28 times to the Obama ticket's 22 times.

Analysis

Going into Election 2008, both McCain and Obama knew that Ohio was a crucial state. Earlier in the primary season, Ohio had given a major comeback victory to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Both candidates campaigned heavily throughout the state in hopes for winning its 20 electoral votes. As no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, it was seen in particular as a "must-win" state for McCain. George W. Bush's narrow wins in 2000(by 3.50 percent against Al Gore) and 2004 (2.11 percent against John Kerry) proved critical in Bush's narrow wins nationally.

On Election Day 2008, Obama won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 4.59 percent. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state.

McCain did best in the Republican base in the center and western regions, composed of relatively rural areas combined with Cincinnati and Columbus' heavily Republican suburbs. In addition, McCain won all but one county in the Appalachian southeast, mirroring the troubles Obama had throughout this region. On the other hand, Obama did best in the Democratic base—Cleveland (where he won almost 70% of the vote), Youngstown and the heavily unionized counties next to Pennsylvania. However, he was unable to significantly improve upon John Kerry's performance in these areas. More surprisingly, the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus gave him strong support. Cincinnati, the only major city that didn't vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt, voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Columbus, a city shifting to the Democrats, also voted for Obama by a three-to-two margin. In addition, Obama won several northern counties along the shore of Lake Erie that John Kerry had lost in 2004.

As polls closed and results were coming in on Election Night, Republican strategist and adviser Karl Rove joined Brit Hume on Fox News offering analysis. Rove was discussing the impact an Ohio loss would have on McCain's chances of winning the election. "If he loses Ohio," Rove stated of McCain, "he goes from 286, which the Republicans carried in 2004, down to 266, and that puts him below the 270 threshold needed to win the White House. So he'd not only need to sweep the rest of these states which were won by the Republicans in 2004, he'd also need to pick up something as well." In an untimely moment, Hume broke in. "Guess what Karl," Hume interrupted, "I've just received word that the state of Ohio has gone for Barack Obama."

By county

Projections based on published official or unofficial county election board results, where available; otherwise, on the unofficial state board of elections results.

By congressional district

Although Barack Obama won the state of Ohio, John McCain carried 10 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democratic incumbents and one district that simultaneously elected a Democrat. Obama carried 8 districts, including one district held by a Republican incumbent.

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden: