United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Likely Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160. Kerry raised $2,049,794.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. The main reason why is that Bush's approval rating was consistently above 50%. Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says the findings indicate that the Tar Heel state remains safely Republican in the presidential election. Polls showed Kerry had a strong 44% of voters in NC, but Bush consistently polled between 49%–54% and his approval ratings remained in the lower 50% range. In the end, Edwards didn't even have any effect on North Carolina's results, as they were identical to the 2000 results.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeast part of the state, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. The only significant improvement Kerry–Edwards made on Al Gore in 2000 was winning heavy populated Mecklenburg County.

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts.

Electors

Technically the voters of NC cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NC is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

1. Joseph W. Powell
2. Ann Sullivan
3. William B. Carraway
4. Sandra Carter
5. William H. Trotter
6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
7. Judy Keener
8. Marcia M. Spiegel
9. Dewitt Rhoades
10. Davey G. Williamson
11. Theresa Esposito
12. Elizabeth Kelly
13. Larry W. Potts
14. Joe Morgan
15. Robert Rector