United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004

Caucuses

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010. Kerry raised $2,496,203.

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state 10 times. Kerry visited 7 visits. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week, but Kerry spent slightly more each week.

Analysis

The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential, in the state winning a majority of the counties and congressional districts and performing moderately well, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

1. Carol Vining Moore
2. Margaret Robinson
3. Ida I. DeHaas
4. Marcela L. Ort
5. Vickie Sue Price
6. Paul Todd
7. Leonard Smigielski
8. Bruce McAttee
9. Stanley W. Harris
10. Yvonne Williams
11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
12. Charley Jackson
13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
14. Roger Short
15. Harless Scott
16. Richard Shoemaker
17. Michael Pitt