United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004

Caucuses

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
9. Washington Post: Kerry
10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Only 4 pre-election polls were taken in the state in the entire 2004 election. Kerry won the first two, which were taken before October, and Bush won the other 2 which were taken in the final month of October. The final RCP average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.9%. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 43%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $906,799. Kerry raised $279,877.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign spent advertising money during the fall campaign. However, with polls showing the race tightening, Vice President Cheney appeared at a campaign rally for the Republican ticket in Honolulu on October 31, 2004.

Analysis

Bush and Cheney did campaign here early on, but not throughout the entire campaign. Hawaii is considered too much of a Democratic stronghold to be a swing state. Hawaii is represented by two Democratic senators and representatives, and there has never been any competition in a senatorial election. However, it should be noted that, despite Bush's loss in the state, he improved upon his performance in the state from 2000. More importantly, he had the strongest showing for a Republican Presidential candidate in the state since 1984 (even doing a little better than his father did in 1988).

By congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts.

Electors

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Hawaii. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards:

1. Frances Kagawa
2. Joy Kobashigawa Lewis
3. Samuel Mitchell
4. Dolly Strazar