United States presidential election in Georgia, 2008

Primaries

Campaign

An ambitious Barack Obama targeted Georgia as potential state he could flip from red to blue, albeit as a relatively long-shot target. Democrats hoped libertarian candidate Bob Barr - whose home state was Georgia - might take away votes for John McCain and play the role of a spoiler. In the early months, Obama bought ads and even appeared in person to campaign in the state.

However, polling consistently showed McCain with a double-digit lead. Over the summer, Obama's campaign stumbled, and the Illinois senator even fell behind McCain for a short while in September. In light of these difficulties, the Democratic campaign started shifting resources to North Carolina, which they regarded as more competitive. Obama stopped advertising in the state and moved away staff, although he retained a large volunteer force. As the campaign neared the end, Obama jumped to a national lead, helped by the September financial crisis, but remained behind in Georgia polling.

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican
2. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
3. Takeaway: Leaning McCain
4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning McCain
6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain
7. Politico: Solid McCain
8. Real Clear Politics: Toss Up
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning McCain
10. CQ Politics: Leaning Republican
11. New York Times: Leaning Republican
12. CNN: Leaning Republican
13. NPR: Leaning Republican
14. MSNBC: Leaning McCain
15. Fox News: Republican
16. Associated Press: Republican
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican

Polling

McCain won almost every pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average gave the Republican the lead with 50% to 47%.

Fundraising

McCain raised $4,835,902. Obama raised $8,568,716.

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $4,105,888. McCain and his interest groups spent just $49,507. Both McCain and Obama visited Atlanta once.

Analysis

In terms of the margin, McCain won a quite narrow victory, capturing 52.23% of the popular vote to Democrat Barack Obama's 47.02% popular vote. This margin was significantly lower than that in 2004 when George W. Bush carried this state by a 17% margin, winning 58% of the popular vote to John Kerry's 41%. Obama won huge victories in the two most populous counties, DeKalb County and Fulton County which contains the state capital and largest city of Atlanta, which contributed to his popular vote percentage. He also made significant inroads in Atlanta's normally heavily Republican suburbs. For instance, Obama lost Cobb County by nine points compared to Kerry's 35-point loss. Obama lost Gwinnett County by 11 points compared to a 33-point loss for Kerry. Aside from native son Jimmy Carter winning both counties in 1976 (a year in which he swept every county in the state), neither county has gone Democratic since 1960. However, McCain piled up the votes in the more rural northern and southeastern parts of the state (well over 70 percent in some cases) which gave him the edge and ultimate win. These two areas were among the first regions of Georgia to turn Republican; the old-line Southern Democrats in these areas began splitting their tickets as early as the 1950s, and some areas of north Georgia are among the few ancestrally Republican areas of the South.

The large African American turnout was widely attributed to the narrow margin by which McCain carried the state. However, Obama was unable to improve his percentage amongst white voters. According to exit polls, 77% of white voters supported the Republican candidate - the same as in 2004. This effectively eliminated Obama's chances of winning the state.

Of the several independent and third-party candidates who ran for president in 2008, two of them were from Georgia (those being former Republican Representative Bob Barr (L) (who placed third overall in the popular vote in Georgia) and former Democratic Representative Cynthia McKinney (G)).

During the same election, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss was held below 50% of the popular vote in a contentious U.S. Senate race against Democrat Jim Martin and Libertarian Allen Buckley. Abiding by Georgia law, this led to a runoff election in December between Chambliss and Martin. Chambliss brought in 2008 vice presidential nominee Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska to campaign for him and rally the base of the GOP. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned on behalf of Martin. Turnout was lower than in the general election and African Americans didn't turn out as largely as they did in November for Obama, all factors that led up to Chambliss's victory. The incumbent was reelected with 57.44% of the vote while Martin received 42.56%.

During the 2008 U.S. house elections, incumbent Democratic Representatives Jim Marshall (GA-8) and John Barrow (GA-12), each of whom was narrowly re-elected by one percentage point or less in 2006 despite the pro-Democratic political environment that year, were both re-elected by unexpectedly wide margins despite efforts by Republicans to win both of the districts.

At the state level, during the same election, Republicans picked up four seats in the Georgia House of Representatives.

Results

(*Peroutka was not the Constitution Party's nominee in 2008)

By congressional district

John McCain carried eight congressional districts in Georgia, including all seven held by Republicans and one district held by a Democrat.

Electors

Technically the voters of Georgia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Georgia is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

1. Esther Clark
2. Dennis Coxwell
3. Norma Edenfield
4. Randy Evans
5. Sue P. Everhart
6. Leigh Ann Gillis
7. Judy Goddard
8. Linda Herren
9. Rufus Montgomery
10. Clint Murphy
11. Sunny Park
12. Alec Poitevint
13. John Sours
14. Allan Vigil
15. John White