United States Senate elections, 2006

Summary of the November 7, 2006, United States Senate election results ^[]

^ID The Independents joined with the Democrats in their caucus.

Sources:

Arizona

Wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14, 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano as governor. Kyl got an unexpected boost when TIME listed him as one of the Ten Best Senators. While polling in October showed Pederson catching up, Kyl was re-elected 53%-44%.

Connecticut

Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut was originally thought to be a shoo-in, but his reelection prospects were complicated by political cross-currents. Lieberman drew fire from the more anti-war elements within the Democratic party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Greenwich telecom-networking businessman Ned Lamont declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in March, and while the Democratic state convention in May overwhelmingly endorsed Lieberman, Lamont's 33.4% support was more than twice the 15% needed to force a primary.

Lamont defeated Lieberman for the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary 52%-48%. Lieberman decided to remain in the race as a "petitioning candidate," having announced on July 3, 2006, that he would begin collecting the necessary signatures to run as an independent in case he lost the primary. He also filed to create a new independent party, "Connecticut for Lieberman."

Challenging Lamont and Lieberman in the general election was Republican Alan Schlesinger, former mayor of Derby and a former state representative. Schlesinger had a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but he had never run in a large constituency. Schlesinger was embarrassed when it was revealed that he was thrown out of a casino for counting cards under an assumed name.

Lieberman went on to win the election with 50% of the vote to Lamont's 40%. Schlesinger trailed far behind with only 10%, in part due to Lieberman receiving support from only 33% of Democrats but a commanding 70% of Republicans. While Lieberman won as the CFL nominee, he decided to serve as an Independent Democrat in the current Congress and continue to caucus with Senate Democrats.

Maryland

Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005, that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat had been considered safe, considering Maryland's Democratic voting tendencies and the overall pro-Democratic undercurrents of the 2006 elections. Representative Ben Cardin bested former Representative and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume and others in the Democratic primary. Lieutenant Governor Michael S. Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and won the Republican nomination over token opposition. Democrats had a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers, but Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with fellow blacks kept the race somewhat competitive. On November 7, Cardin was victorious over Steele by a vote of 54%-44%.

Minnesota

On February 9, 2005, Senator Mark Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar was the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nominee.

Republican Representative Mark Kennedy secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and defeated nominal opposition in the primary. Kennedy benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to do fundraisers for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005. An October 30 Mason-Dixon poll had Klobuchar leading Kennedy 50% to 40%. On November 7, 2006, Amy Klobuchar won the race with 58% of the vote to Mark Kennedy's 38%.

Missouri

Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was narrowly elected in a 2002 special election for the remaining four years of one term, faced a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri did not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent faced state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a former Jackson County Prosecutor and the 2004 Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

McCaskill carried some political baggage from her 2004 loss; however, Talent was elected to the Senate after a nearly successful gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill was in for the 2006 election. McCaskill went out of her way to appeal to rural voters, who had largely favored her opponent in the gubernatorial race. She also benefited from talking up her support of embryonic stem cell research, which a slight majority of Missourians supported but which Talent opposed. A related constitutional amendment was also on the ballot and narrowly passed.

The race was among the most competitive in the nation. McCaskill and Talent exchanged small leads in various polls throughout the campaign. In the end, McCaskill defeated Talent 50%-47%.

Montana

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer (who later became governor) in 2000, but was re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic Party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff influence-peddling scandal, made this a highly competitive race. Burns faced Democratic primary winner and state Senate President Jon Tester, an organic farmer from Big Sandy.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he verbally attacked out-of-state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.

For much of the campaign, Tester led by substantial margins. Burns narrowed the gap by attacking Tester as a liberal extremist. November 2, Mason-Dixon polled Tester and Burns tied at 47% with 5% undecided. On November 4, Rasmussen Reports had Tester leading 50% to 48%.

Shortly before noon Mountain time November 8, Tester was declared the victor by a slim margin, 198,032 votes to 194,904. The race was the closest Senate election of 2006 in terms of absolute vote difference; the closest race by percentage difference was the Virginia senate election.

New Jersey

Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Bob Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18, 2006. Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25, 2005, that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees had problems within their own parties; Menendez alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean was unpopular with party conservatives who considered him to be too liberal.

Menendez had an approval rating of 38%, which was thought to be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, especially since his disapproval was at 50%. Although incumbents approval ratings below 50% are generally considered vulnerable, this standard perhaps did not apply to Menendez as he had just been appointed at the start of 2006 and was not well known statewide, a far different situation from most incumbents. President George W. Bush was highly unpopular in the state, but Governor Corzine's early performance in office met with widespread disapproval, contributing to the large number of undecided voters. The campaign became increasingly aggressive, with Menendez calling Kean a Bush lackey while Kean repeatedly attacked Menendez as corrupt.

An October 16 Zogby poll had Kean leading Menendez 47% to 45%. An October 23 LA Times/Bloomberg poll had Menendez leading Kean 45% to 41%. A Rasmussen Reports poll from October 25 had Kean leading Menendez 43% to 41%. A November 2 poll by Zogby/Reuters showed a 49% to 37% Menendez lead. Another November 2 poll by Rutgers showed Menendez up 46% to 42% and a third by Public Mind showed a 48% to 38% Menendez edge. A November 3 poll by [Rasmussen] showed a 48% to 43% Menendez lead. A Monmouth University November 3 had Menendez leading Kean 45% to 42% with 10% undecided.

On election night Menendez defeated Kean Jr. by a vote of 53% to 44%.

Ohio

Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio had uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the widespread unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft were thought to be hurting his re-election chances months before the election. He faced primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who were unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations.

Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the 2nd congressional district on August 2, 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy that same month. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14, 2006. Both DeWine and Brown won their primaries easily. An October 12 Rasmussen Reports poll had Brown leading DeWine 46% to 41%. An October 30 Reuters/Zogby poll had Brown leading DeWine 49% to 42%. A Rasmussen poll released November 4 showed Brown pulling away from DeWine with a 53% to 41% lead.

Brown comfortably won the election, garnering 56% of the vote to DeWine's 44%.

Pennsylvania

Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, then the third-highest-ranking member of the Republican caucus, was the Democrats' top target in 2006. He was a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that last voted for a Republican presidential nominee in 1988.

In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for president, who won Pennsylvania by 4.5 percent. That year, Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat who was not supported by party contributors and was heavily outspent. Democrats thus saw Santorum's seat as extremely vulnerable and made it a priority for a pickup in 2006. Popular pro-life State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. was the Democratic nominee and was fully supported by the party establishment.

Santorum did not benefit from his recent controversial book It Takes a Family, in which he criticized public schools and questioned whether or not both parents in a family should work, alleging that women who work are making a selfish decision and only do so because they find it "empowering". These stances were seized on by the Casey campaign as proof that Santorum was too conservative for Pennsylvania voters. Santorum also suffered from a controversy concerning both his residency and a charter school his children were enrolled in. He also voiced many social views that some thought extreme, arguing that homosexual relationships were no more deserving of legal endorsement than bestiality.

Every public poll taken during the campaign showed Casey ahead. Most polling done after Labor Day showed Casey with a double-digit lead. Polls conducted in the final days of the campaign showed Casey leading 52%-39% and 48%-40%. On election night, Casey defeated Santorum 59%-41%. This was the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator since George McGovern's loss to James Abdnor in 1980.

Rhode Island

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, a liberal Republican, faced a primary challenge from conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who narrowly lost the gubernatorial nomination in 2002, faced token opposition in the Democratic primary.

Laffey received support from the conservative Club for Growth. Although he was the most liberal Republican in the Senate and was repeatedly accused of being a RINO by members of his own party, the NRSC spent a large amount of money backing Chafee, and, in an unprecedented move, announced that they would abandon the race if Laffey won. Chafee prevailed in the September 12 primary 54%-46%, and Laffey endorsed him for re-election. Chafee, however, may have been damaged by the contentious primary that potentially alienated Republican voters.

Chafee faced a complicated situation due to his political beliefs. He was unpopular with conservative Republicans whose votes he would need in order to win the primary, yet represented a heavily Democratic constituency that overwhelmingly disapproved of George W. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress. As a liberal Democrat running in a liberal, Democratic stronghold, Whitehouse did not face these problems. The Whitehouse campaign sought to characterize the election as a referendum on Bush and the Republican Congress; critics argued that Whitehouse was simply casting himself as a proxy vote for a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Polls showed a close race, with Whitehouse holding a narrow lead going into the election. In the end, however, voters seemed to place more emphasis on party control than their personal affection for Chafee. Whitehouse prevailed over Chafee on election night winning by a vote of 53%-47%.

Tennessee

Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, had previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ended in January 2007, and was widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008 (however, he announced in late November 2006, that he would not pursue a Presidential run).

Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the state offices were held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and was at the time one of two states in the south to send more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans, the other being Arkansas.

The Democratic nominee was Representative Harold Ford, Jr. and the Republican nominee was Bob Corker, both of whom won primaries on August 3. Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga and 1994 Senate candidate, was well funded and advertised heavily in the western portion of the state during his primary campaign, where he was relatively unknown before this race. Ford was the representative from Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Like Corker, Ford showed exceptional fundraising prowess, and the race was an expensive one for both parties.

The candidates exchanged leads in the polls, and there were a number of negative charges. Ford attacked Corker's business dealings. Corker portrayed Ford as a hyper-political Washington insider with nothing in common with Tennessee residents. The campaign made headlines when the Republican National Committee ran an ad that, among other things, ridiculed Ford for attending a party thrown by the Playboy corporation. It featured a fictional blond Playboy Bunny squealing, "I met Harold at the Playboy Party!" and then winking and saying, "Harold, call me." Democrats called the ad an attempt to play on racial prejudice, and Corker distanced himself from the ad.

Corker won the election 51%-48%.

Vermont

Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party put independent Representative Bernie Sanders on their party's ballot in order to keep other Democrats from having a possible "spoiler" effect on the general election results. Sanders won both the Democratic line and an independent line on the ballot.

Richard Tarrant was the Republican nominee, after winning the primary election on September 12. Sanders, a popular political figure in Vermont, won with 65% of the vote.

Virginia

Early in the 2006 campaign, freshman incumbent Republican George Allen of Virginia held a double-digit lead in nearly all polls, and had positioned himself as a potential presidential candidate in 2008. That status was seriously jeopardized by a series of controversial events occurring during Allen's re-election campaign, culminating in his loss to his Democratic opponent, former Secretary of the Navy and decorated combat veteran Jim Webb. Retired Air Force officer Gail Parker ran as the Independent Green party candidate.

Among the most bitter Senate contests of the year, Allen's approval rating had dropped in statewide polls due in part to a series of embarrassing incidents during the campaign. In mid-August at a campaign stop in southwest Virginia, Allen called S. R. Sidarth, a Webb volunteer of Indian descent, "macaca" and welcomed him to America, although he was born in Virginia. Controversy surrounding Allen continued into September following his reaction to questions about his Jewish heritage. Additional reports surfaced in late September that Allen uttered the N-word on a frequent basis while a student at the University of Virginia, according to former college football teammates. Allen fired back by pointing out remarks that Webb made during the 1980s that were demeaning to female veterans. He struck again when he released excerpts of graphic sexual scenes from some of the books Webb had penned, portraying the writing as misogynistic and pornography. Webb responded that these were based on events that he personally witnessed while in the military and while working as a journalist.

As controversy and allegations on both sides increased, the gap between the candidates tightened significantly. On October 30, Reuters/Zogby had Webb leading Allen 45% to 44%. A November 2 Rasmussen Reports poll had Allen and Webb tied at 49%. A November 3 Mason-Dixon poll had Webb leading 46% to 45% with 7% undecided.

As polls closed on November 7, 2006, the margin of votes between Webb and Allen was approximately 7,000 votes, or less than 0.5% of all votes cast, a margin eligible to trigger a recount per Virginia election law. On the evening of November 8, 2006, NBC and the Associated Press declared Webb the winner. Following recanvassing, the Virginia Board of Elections declared Webb the winner by 9,162 votes, a margin of 0.38%.

On the afternoon of November 9, 2006, Allen gave a speech conceding the election to Webb, stating "The people of Virginia have spoken and I respect their decision. The Bible teaches us there is a time and place for everything, and today I called and congratulated Jim Webb." Webb's win was the pivotal seat for Democrats to regain the majority in the Senate (51-49).