The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010, as part of the 2010 midterm elections (along with Senate elections), at the midpoint of President Barack Obama's first term in office. Voters of the 50 U.S. states chose 435 U.S. Representatives. Voters of the U.S. territories, commonwealths, and the District of Columbia chose their non-voting delegates.
Republicans regained control of the chamber they had lost in the 2006 midterm elections, picking up a net total of 63 seats and erasing the gains Democrats made in 2006 and 2008. Although the sitting U.S. President's party usually loses seats in a midterm election, the 2010 election resulted in the highest loss of a party in a House midterm election since 1938, and the largest House swing since 1948. This also happened to be the Republicans' largest gain in House seats since 1938. Republicans gained the most in New York state where they picked up six seats, defeating five incumbents and winning an open Democratic district. The heavy Democratic Party losses were attributed to anger with President Obama, opposition to the Affordable Care Act, large budget deficits and the weak economy. This was also the third consecutive midterm election in a president's first term where the Republican Party has made gains in the House of Representatives, as well as the second consecutive midterm election where party control of the said chamber changed hands.
Following the 2006 elections, Democrats took control of the House as well as the Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the districts Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat.
The Republicans' 63-seat pickup in the House to take control of that chamber, as well as their gain of six Senate seats, signified a dramatic rollback of recent Democratic gains. In the election, Republicans won their greatest number of House seats since 1946. This has been attributed to the continued economic recession, as well as President Obama's controversial stimulus and health care reform bills. Republicans also took control of 29 of the 50 state governorships and gained 690 seats in state legislatures, to hold their greatest number since the 1928 elections.
Republicans also made historic gains in state legislatures, adding more than 675 state legislative seats, by far surpassing their state-legislative gains in 1994. Republicans gained control of dozens of state legislative chambers, and took control of "seven more legislatures outright than they did after 1994 and the most since 1952." Republicans picked up control of the Alabama Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction; control of the North Carolina Senate for the first time since 1870; and control of the Minnesota Senate for the first time since the state returned to partisan elections in 1974.
The Great Lakes region, which had recently favored the Democratic Party, went strongly Republican. In California and the Pacific Northwest, however, the Democrats retained the upper hand.
Sources: House Clerk – Statistics of the Congressional Election, 2010, House Clerk – Statistics of the Congressional Election, 2008
Thirty-seven incumbents retired.
Seventeen incumbent Democrats retired.
Alabama's 7th congressional district: Artur Davis: To run for Governor of Alabama.
Arkansas's 1st congressional district: Marion Berry: Retired due to health concerns.
Arkansas's 2nd congressional district: Vic Snyder: Retired to spend more time with family.
California's 33rd congressional district: Diane Watson: Retired; "It should be a seat inherited by someone who can represent everyone in this district."
Florida's 17th congressional district: Kendrick Meek: To run for U.S. Senate.
Indiana's 8th congressional district: Brad Ellsworth: To run for U.S. Senate.
Kansas's 3rd congressional district: Dennis Moore: Retired; "Time for a new generation of leadership."
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district: Charlie Melancon: To run for U.S. Senate.
Massachusetts's 10th congressional district: Bill Delahunt: Retired; "Life is about change. I think it's healthy. It's time."
Michigan's 1st congressional district: Bart Stupak: Retired; "I've accomplished what I want to do."
New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Paul Hodes: To run for U.S. Senate.
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district: Joe Sestak: To run for U.S. Senate.
Rhode Island's 1st congressional district: Patrick J. Kennedy: Retired to "[take] a new direction."
Tennessee's 6th congressional district: Bart Gordon: Retired; "…it's time for a new chapter."
Tennessee's 8th congressional district: John S. Tanner: Retired; decided 20 years was long enough.
Washington's 3rd congressional district: Brian Baird: Retired, to pursue other options.
Wisconsin's 7th congressional district: Dave Obey: Retired; "But even more frankly, I am bone tired." Media reports indicated Obey's future plans included joining a DC lobbying firm run by former Representative Dick Gephardt.
Twenty incumbent Republicans retired.
Arkansas's 3rd congressional district: John Boozman: To run for U.S. Senate
Arizona's 3rd congressional district: John Shadegg: Retired to pursue other interests.
California's 19th congressional district: George Radanovich: Retired to put family obligations first.
Delaware's at-large congressional district: Michael Castle: To run for U.S. Senate.
Florida's 5th congressional district: Ginny Brown-Waite: Retired due to health issues.
Florida's 12th congressional district: Adam Putnam: To run for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture.
Florida's 21st congressional district: Lincoln Díaz-Balart: Retired to return to law practice.
Florida's 25th congressional district: Mario Díaz-Balart: To run for Florida's 21st district, held by his brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart, who had announced plans to return to law practice.
Georgia's 7th congressional district: John Linder: Retired.
Illinois's 10th congressional district: Mark Kirk: To run for U.S. Senate.
Indiana's 4th congressional district: Steve Buyer: Retired due to wife's illness
Kansas's 1st congressional district: Jerry Moran: To run for U.S. Senate.
Kansas's 4th congressional district: Todd Tiahrt: To run for U.S. Senate.
Michigan's 2nd congressional district: Peter Hoekstra: To run for Governor of Michigan.
Michigan's 3rd congressional district: Vern Ehlers: Retired.
Missouri's 7th congressional district: Roy Blunt: To run for U.S. Senate.
Oklahoma's 5th congressional district: Mary Fallin: To run for Governor of Oklahoma.
South Carolina's 1st congressional district: Henry E. Brown, Jr.: Retired to spend more time with his family.
South Carolina's 3rd congressional district: J. Gresham Barrett: To run for Governor of South Carolina.
Tennessee's 3rd congressional district: Zach Wamp: To run for Governor of Tennessee.
There were nine Democrats who survived reelection in the 1994 Republican Revolution, but were defeated this year.
Two Democrats lost renomination. One seat remained Democratic, and the other seat was taken by a Republican.
Michigan's 13th congressional district: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (first elected in 1996) lost to Hansen Clarke
West Virginia's 1st congressional district: Alan Mollohan (first elected in 1982) lost to Mike Oliverio, but Oliverio lost in the general election to Republican David McKinley.
Two Republicans lost renomination. Both seats remained Republican.
Alabama's 5th congressional district: Parker Griffith (first elected in 2008 as a Democrat; switched parties in 2009) lost to Mo Brooks
South Carolina's 4th congressional district: Bob Inglis (first elected in 1992) lost to Trey Gowdy
Fifty-four incumbents lost re-election; almost all of them were Democrats.
52 Democrats lost re-election.
Alabama's 2nd congressional district, Bobby Bright (first elected in 2008) lost to Martha Roby
Arizona's 1st congressional district, Ann Kirkpatrick (first elected in 2008) lost to Paul Gosar
Arizona's 5th congressional district, Harry Mitchell (first elected in 2006) lost to David Schweikert
Colorado's 3rd congressional district, John Salazar (first elected in 2004) lost to Scott Tipton
Colorado's 4th congressional district, Betsy Markey (first elected in 2008) lost to Cory Gardner
Florida's 2nd congressional district, Allen Boyd (first elected in 1996) lost to Steve Southerland
Florida's 8th congressional district, Alan Grayson (first elected in 2008) lost to Daniel Webster
Florida's 22nd congressional district, Ron Klein (first elected in 2006) lost to Allen West
Florida's 24th congressional district, Suzanne Kosmas (first elected in 2008) lost to Sandy Adams
Georgia's 8th congressional district, Jim Marshall (first elected in 2002) lost to Austin Scott
Idaho's 1st congressional district, Walt Minnick (first elected in 2008) lost to Raúl Labrador
Illinois's 8th congressional district, Melissa Bean (first elected in 2004) lost to Joe Walsh
Illinois's 11th congressional district, Debbie Halvorson (first elected in 2008) lost to Adam Kinzinger
Illinois's 14th congressional district, Bill Foster (first elected in 2008) lost to Randy Hultgren
Illinois's 17th congressional district, Phil Hare (first elected in 2006) lost to Bobby Schilling
Indiana's 9th congressional district, Baron Hill (originally elected in 1998) lost to Todd Young
Maryland's 1st congressional district, Frank Kratovil (first elected in 2008) lost to Andrew P. Harris
Michigan's 7th congressional district, Mark Schauer (first elected in 2008) lost to Tim Walberg
Minnesota's 8th congressional district, Jim Oberstar (first elected in 1974) lost to Chip Cravaack
Mississippi's 1st congressional district, Travis Childers (first elected in 2008) lost to Alan Nunnelee
Mississippi's 4th congressional district, Gene Taylor (first elected in 1989) lost to Steven Palazzo
Missouri's 4th congressional district, Ike Skelton (first elected in 1976) lost to Vicky Hartzler
Nevada's 3rd congressional district, Dina Titus (first elected in 2008) lost to Joe Heck
New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, Carol Shea-Porter (first elected in 2006) lost to Frank Guinta
New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, John Adler (first elected in 2008) lost to Jon Runyan
New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, Harry Teague (first elected in 2008) lost to Steve Pearce
New York's 13th congressional district, Michael McMahon (first elected in 2008) lost to Michael Grimm
New York's 19th congressional district, John Hall (first elected in 2006) lost to Nan Hayworth
New York's 20th congressional district, Scott Murphy (first elected in 2009) lost to Chris Gibson
New York's 24th congressional district, Mike Arcuri (first elected in 2006) lost to Richard L. Hanna
New York's 25th congressional district, Dan Maffei (first elected in 2008) lost to Ann Marie Buerkle
North Carolina's 2nd congressional district, Bob Etheridge (first elected in 1996) lost to Renee Ellmers
North Dakota's at-large congressional district, Earl Pomeroy (first elected in 1992) lost to Rick Berg
Ohio's 1st congressional district, Steve Driehaus (first elected in 2008) lost to Steve Chabot
Ohio's 6th congressional district, Charlie Wilson (first elected in 2006) lost to Bill Johnson
Ohio's 15th congressional district, Mary Jo Kilroy (first elected in 2008) lost to Steve Stivers
Ohio's 16th congressional district, John Boccieri (first elected in 2008) lost to Jim Renacci
Ohio's 18th congressional district, Zack Space (first elected in 2006) lost to Bob Gibbs
Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district, Kathy Dahlkemper (first elected in 2008) lost to Mike Kelly
Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, Patrick Murphy (first elected in 2006) lost to Mike Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, Chris Carney (first elected in 2006) lost to Tom Marino
Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, Paul E. Kanjorski (first elected in 1984) lost to Lou Barletta
South Carolina's 5th congressional district, John M. Spratt, Jr. (first elected in 1982) lost to Mick Mulvaney
South Dakota's at-large congressional district, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (first elected in 2004) lost to Kristi Noem
Tennessee's 4th congressional district, Lincoln Davis (first elected in 2002) lost to Scott DesJarlais
Texas's 17th congressional district, Chet Edwards (first elected in 1990) lost to Bill Flores
Texas's 23rd congressional district, Ciro Rodriguez (originally elected in 1996) lost to Quico Canseco
Texas's 27th congressional district, Solomon P. Ortiz (first elected in 1982) lost to Blake Farenthold
Virginia's 2nd congressional district, Glenn Nye (first elected in 2008) lost to Scott Rigell
Virginia's 5th congressional district, Tom Perriello (first elected in 2008) lost to Robert Hurt
Virginia's 9th congressional district, Rick Boucher (first elected in 1982) lost to Morgan Griffith
Wisconsin's 8th congressional district, Steve Kagen (first elected in 2006) lost to Reid Ribble
Two Republicans lost re-election.
Hawaii's 1st congressional district, Charles Djou (first elected in 2010) lost to Colleen Hanabusa
Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, Joseph Cao (first elected in 2008) lost to Cedric Richmond
Fourteen open seats, held by Democrats, were won by Republicans.
Arkansas's 1st congressional district
Arkansas's 2nd congressional district
Indiana's 8th congressional district
Kansas's 3rd congressional district
Louisiana's 3rd congressional district
Michigan's 1st congressional district
New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district
New York's 29th congressional district
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district
Tennessee's 6th congressional district
Tennessee's 8th congressional district
Washington's 3rd congressional district
West Virginia's 1st congressional district
Wisconsin's 7th congressional district
One open seat, held by a Republican, was won by a Democrat.
Delaware's at-large congressional district
The following were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.
RealClearPolitics.
As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times)
As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.
Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com
Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats. Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview. The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62–65 seats.
Crystal Ball
As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".
Charlie Cook
On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."
In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."
Rasmussen Reports
On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House."
Rothenberg Political Report.
On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."
In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."
Congressional Quarterly.
In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.
In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.
The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.
Most recent election results are listed. Winning candidates are listed in bold.
Key:
Democrat Eric Massa resigned on March 8, 2010. A special election for the remainder of his term in the 111th Congress was held on the same day as the general election, which Reed won.
The House of Representatives includes five Delegates from the District of Columbia and outlying territories elected to two-year terms and one Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico elected to a four-year term (for which the last election was held in 2008, so the seat was not up for reelection in 2010). These delegates are not allowed to vote on the floor of the House of Representatives.
