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Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2008

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This article is a collection of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican presidential primaries, 2008, typically using standard statistical methodology.

Contents

Candidates

The known candidates with national campaigns are John McCain, and Ron Paul, and Withdrawn candidates include Jim Gilmore, Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, John H. Cox, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Alan Keyes and Mitt Romney. Candidates who declined to seek the nomination include George Allen, Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Condoleezza Rice, Mark Sanford, and Rick Santorum. One candidate included in some polls who said nothing either way, and did not enter the race is George Pataki.

On March 4, 2008, John McCain crossed the delegate threshold and became the presumptive nominee of the GOP in the 2008 election. It is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul, the two remaining candidates on the ballot, to meet or exceed the number of McCain's pledged delegates.

Alabama

Alabama Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Alaska

Alaska Winner: Mitt Romney

Primary Date
February 5, 2008

Arizona

Arizona Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Arkansas

Arkansas Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

California

California Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008

See also

Colorado

Colorado Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Connecticut

Connecticut Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Delaware

Delaware Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008

District of Columbia

District of Columbia Winner
John McCain
Primary Date February 12, 2008

Florida

Florida Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 29, 2008

See also

Georgia

Georgia Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Idaho

Idaho Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
May 27, 2008

Illinois

Illinois Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Iowa

Iowa Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
January 3, 2008

See also

Kansas

Kansas Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
February 9, 2008

Louisiana

Louisiana Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date February 9, 2008

Maine

Maine Winner: Mitt Romney
 Caucus Dates: February 1–3, 2008
See also

Maryland

Maryland Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 12, 2008

Massachusetts

Massachusetts Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Michigan

Michigan Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
January 15, 2008


See also

Minnesota

Minnesota Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008

Missouri

Missouri Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Montana

Montana Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008

Nevada

Nevada Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
January 19, 2008

See also

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 8, 2008

See also

New Jersey

New Jersey Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008


See also

New Mexico

New Mexico Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
June 3, 2008
See also

New York

New York Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008


See also

North Carolina

North Carolina Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
May 6, 2008
See also

North Dakota

North Dakota Winner: Mitt Romney
 Caucus Date February 5, 2008

Ohio

Ohio Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008

See also

Oklahoma

Oklahoma Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Oregon

Oregon Winner: To Be Determined

Primary Date
May 20, 2008

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
Tuesday, April 22, 2008


See also

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also

South Carolina

South Carolina Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
January 19, 2008

See also

Tennessee

Tennessee Winner
Mike Huckabee
Primary Date
February 5, 2008

Texas

Texas Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also

Utah

Utah Winner
Mitt Romney
Primary Date
February 5, 2008
See also

Vermont

Vermont Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
March 4, 2008
See also

Virginia

Virginia Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 12, 2008

Washington

Washington Winner
John McCain
Caucus Date
February 9, 2008

See also

West Virginia

West Virginia Winner
Mike Huckabee
Caucus Date
February 5, 2008
;Primary Date: May 13, 2008
See also

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Winner
John McCain
Primary Date
February 19, 2008

See also

Wyoming

Wyoming Winner
Mitt Romney
Caucus Date
January 5, 2008

Notes

  • Strategic Vision is suspected of forging results.

    • Summary

    Sources: National Association of Secretaries of State
    Using RCP averages when available

    Current leaders

    The race for the Republican nomination is decided upon how many delegates a candidate receives. In this section we see how many pledged delegates each candidate has received to date ranking from first place (the most delegates) to sixth place (the least delegates). To be nominated, a candidate must win an absolute majority of delegates, or 1,191 delegates.

  • First Place: John McCain with 12 states and 709 pledged delegates.
  • Alabama (16)
  • Alaska (3)
  • Arkansas (1)
  • Arizona (50)₩
  • California (116)₩
  • Connecticut (27)₩
  • Delaware (18)₩
  • Florida (57)₩
  • Georgia (3)
  • Illinois (54)₩
  • Iowa (3)
  • Massachusetts (17)
  • Michigan (5)
  • Missouri (58)₩
  • New Hampshire (7)₩
  • New Jersey (52)₩
  • New York (101)₩
  • Nevada (4)
  • Oklahoma (32)₩
  • North Dakota (5)
  • South Carolina (19)₩
  • Tennessee (7)
  • Second Place: Mitt Romney with 11 states and 269 pledged delegates.
  • Alaska (12)₩
  • Arkansas (1)
  • California (3)
  • Colorado (22)₩
  • Illinois (2)
  • Iowa (12)
  • Maine (18) ₩
  • Massachusetts (21)₩
  • Michigan (24)₩
  • Minnesota (36)₩
  • Montana (25)₩
  • Nevada (18)₩
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • North Dakota (8)₩
  • Tennessee (3)
  • Utah (36)₩
  • Wyoming (9)₩
  • Third Place: Mike Huckabee with 6 states and 170 (167)*pledged delegates.
  • Alabama (20)₩
  • Alaska (6)
  • Arkansas (29)₩
  • Georgia (45)₩
  • Iowa (17)₩
  • New Hampshire (1)
  • Michigan (1)
  • Nevada (2)
  • North Dakota (5)
  • Oklahoma (6)
  • South Carolina (5)
  • Tennessee (12)₩
  • West Virginia (18/15)₩*
  • Fourth Place: Ron Paul with no states and 16 (19)*pledged delegates.
  • Alaska (5)
  • Iowa (2)
  • Nevada (4)
  • North Dakota (5)
  • West Virginia (0/3)*

    • ₩- Means the candidate has won that particular state

  • According to local news reports, three of Mike Huckabee's delegates from West Virginia were promised to Ron Paul in exchange for support for Huckabee from Paul's caucus supporters in West Virginia.

    • All information comes from

    Predicted results

    The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of convention delegates awarded to each state. A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,381) is needed to secure the nomination.

    The number of convention delegates in Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida have been cut in half due to scheduling their primary earlier than February 5. Source

    Notes
  • "†" indicates a lead within the margin of error or a tie.
  • "╬" indicates a state where the top candidate has withdrawn from the race since the latest poll was conducted, thus the next most-supported active candidate is granted that state's delegates.
  • "₩" indicates a state where the primary/caucus has been conducted and a winner has been declared.
  • "§" indicates a state where the latest poll was conducted before January 1, 2008

    • References

    Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2008 Wikipedia
    (Text) CC BY-SA