Type Weekly newsletter Editor Larry Sabato Political alignment Nonpartisan | Format Newsletter Founded 2002 | |
Publisher University of Virginia Center for Politics | ||
Sabato's Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website in the United States that analyzes current American politics and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
Contents
Crystal Ball predicts every race by the morning of election day, rather than only predicting the races with a clear leader and declaring the others unpredictable. This is intended to allow for a full projection of the election's most likely outcome, rather than simply a list of races to pay attention to.
2002
The Crystal Ball was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato. For the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign, with over 1,500 people subscribing to its weekly e-mail updates.
In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races with an average rate of 99.6%, 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races with an average rate of 94%, and 32 of the 36 governor’s races with an average rate of 88%.
2004
Following a post-election hiatus, the Crystal Ball re-launched on January 27, 2003 to cover the 2004 election cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in Boston and the Republican National Convention in New York City. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).
2006
During the 2006 election cycle the Crystal Ball added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The Crystal Ball predicted a 29 seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate, both of which were exactly right.
Race by race, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 417 of 435 U.S. House races (96%), 33 of 33 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 35 of 36 gubernatorial races (97%).
2008
In August 2007, the Crystal Ball added respected political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of Congressional Quarterly and editor of the America Votes series. Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the Cook Political Report and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President, the Crystal Ball published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama would win in a near-landslide.
In the elections of November 2008, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 34 of 35 U.S. Senate races (97%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally.
2010
The 2010 elections marked the fifth federal election cycle in which the Crystal Ball has been published.
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives. The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans. The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.
2012
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency 290 electoral votes to 248 for Mitt Romney; there would be no change in composition of the Senate with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives making it 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats. Actually, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes, to Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 206. In the Senate, the Democrats gained a net of two seats, leaving them with a total of 53 seats. The Republicans lost a net of two seats, ending with a total of 45 seats. The remaining two senators, both independents, caucused with the Democrats, leaving the majority party with a combined total of 55 seats. House Republicans retained a 234 to 201 seat majority.
Recognition
In 2006, the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism rated the Crystal Ball as the most accurate pre-election predictor. In addition, anchors of MSNBC, Fox News, and CNBC all praised its accuracy. Journalists and political watchers who have commended the Crystal Ball for its accuracy include Fred Barnes, Lester Holt, Steve Doocy, Larry Kudlow, Carl Cameron, Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times, and Will Vehrs of Punditwatch.
Contributors
Over the Crystal Ball’s history, it has published articles from staff members and a variety of guest columnists, including: