Rudy Giuliani presidential campaign, 2008

Background

Giuliani's public profile started to rise when he was appointed as the United States Associate Attorney General by President Ronald Reagan. He held the position from 1981 to 1983, when he was appointed United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York. He held this post until 1989, when resigned to run his first campaign for Mayor of New York City. He lost the race but won four years later, and served as the city's mayor from 1994 to 2001. As mayor, he was best known for his leadership role during the September 11 attacks, when he coordinated and managed the immediate emergency response, earning him the title as Time magazine Person of the Year in 2001. He also positioned himself as "tough on crime" and was often credited with the reduction in offenses that occurred during his tenure in office. Giuliani briefly ran for U.S. Senate in New York to fill the vacancy left by the retiring Daniel Patrick Moynihan in 2000, but was forced to withdraw from the race after being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Although he held traditional views on defense and economics, Giuliani was considered socially liberal, holding pro-choice views on abortion, supporting same-sex civil unions and embryonic stem cell research. As mayor, the abortion rate in New York City dropped by 16% in comparison to the 12% drop nationally; adoptions raised by 133%.

A draft movement began in late 2005 to convince Giuliani to run for President of the United States in 2008. "Draft Rudy Giuliani for President, Inc." filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), and became the first federal committee formed with the sole purpose of encouraging Giuliani to run. During this time, pro-life groups, such as the Republican National Coalition for Life, had already announced their intention to oppose Giuliani, because of his stance on abortion. However, evidence suggested that even among those voters, he enjoyed some support for his possible run. Some social conservatives contended that Giuliani's emphasis on lowering the abortion rate, was a pragmatic pro-life view. Among the overall public, Giuliani was perceived to be a moderate. An August 2006 Rasmussen Reports poll found that 36% of the American public identified the potential candidate as a moderate, while 29% identified him as a conservative and 15% as a liberal. Early polls showed Giuliani with one of the highest levels of name recognition and support, and he was considered a front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination.

Throughout 2006, rumors circulated regarding a possible Giuliani presidential campaign, abetted by hints from the former mayor himself. Over the Independence Day holiday weekend in July 2006, Giuliani declared that he would run for president in 2008 if he could raise sufficient funds. On November 13, 2006, Giuliani announced during a leadership conference in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania that he had taken the first step toward a potential 2008 White House bid by forming the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc., allowing him to raise money for national travel and for a presidential campaign.

Campaign developments 2007

On February 5, 2007, Giuliani officially entered the race for the 2008 U.S. presidential election after filing a "statement of candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission. He confirmed his candidacy on the February 14 edition of Larry King Live, firmly stating: "Yes, I'm running." No Italian American had ever been elected president, and Giuliani's run was the most notable by a member of the ethnic group (the only Italian American to be a major-party national ticket nominee was Geraldine Ferraro, the 1984 Democratic Party nominee for vice-president; also, Al Smith's grandfather was Italian).

February - May 2007: Early stages

Following a series of criticisms from conservatives about his views on abortion, Giuliani made a pledge in February 2007 to nominate Supreme Court Justices in the mold of John Roberts, Sam Alito, Antonin Scalia, and Anthony Kennedy (all Ronald Reagan appointees, former colleagues of his in the Reagan Justice Department or both).

According to a Gallup Poll taken February 9–11 2007, responders who supported Giuliani were asked why they supported him. The results showed that 13% of supporters did so because of Giuliani's strong leadership and 53% did so because of leadership related topics such as time as mayor and handling of 9/11. Another poll taken by Marist showed that 42% of Giuliani supporters believed that leadership is the most important quality for a candidate, compared to 34% of McCain supporters who believed the same.

In February 2007, the International Association of Fire Fighters issued a letter accusing Giuliani of "egregious acts" against the 343 firemen who had died in the September 11th attacks. The letter asserted that Giuliani rushed to conclude the recovery effort once gold and silver had been recovered from World Trade Center vaults and thereby prevented the remains of many victims from being recovered: "Mayor Giuliani's actions meant that fire fighters and citizens who perished would either remain buried at Ground Zero forever, with no closure for families, or be removed like garbage and deposited at the Fresh Kills Landfill." The Giuliani camp stated that the union was politically motivated from tough contract negotiations from Giuliani's second term as mayor and quoted a retired firefighter, Lee Ielphi (a father of 9-11 victim who was called to duty as a firefighter that day), saying "Firefighters have no greater friend and supporter than Rudy Giuliani." The union denied political motivation for the criticism.

President and chief executive officer of Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine and former perennial presidential candidate Steve Forbes announced his endorsement of Giuliani on March 27, 2007. He cited the economic platform and leadership of the candidate in his reasoning for support. "I am honored to support Rudy Giuliani for President, As Mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani showed how exercising fiscal discipline, including tax cuts, lowers deficits, spurs economic growth, and increases revenue. It is time the rest of the country benefit from a true fiscal conservative leader who gets real results." Forbes was named National Campaign Co-Chair and Senior Advisor for the campaign following his endorsement.

Giuliani and the nine other Republican presidential contenders participated in the first MSNBC 2008 Republican Presidential Candidates Debate on May 3, 2007, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. In the non-scientific six-part MSNBC online vote following the debate, Giuliani finished in 3rd place (15%).

Giuliani portrayed himself as the candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton in the general election by being competitive in traditional blue states such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware. A May 10, 2007 Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll put Giuliani ahead of Hillary Clinton, 48% to 42% in Connecticut.

Giuliani participated at the May 15, 2007 GOP debate in South Carolina where the notable exchange occurred when the former mayor challenged a statement made by Congressman Ron Paul. Paul claimed that the United States' presence in the Middle East over the past decade incited hatred towards the United States among many Middle Easterners and provided terrorists with extra incentive to commit the September 11 attacks:

PAUL: No, non-intervention was a major contributing factor. Have you ever read about the reasons they attacked us? They attack us because we've been over there. We've been bombing Iraq for ten years. We've been in the Middle East [for years]. I think [Ronald] Reagan was right. We don't understand the irrationality of Middle Eastern politics. Right now, we're building an embassy in Iraq that is bigger than the Vatican. We're building 14 permanent bases. What would we say here if China was doing this in our country or in the Gulf of Mexico? We would be objecting. We need to look at what we do, from the point of view of what it would be like if someone did it to us.

MODERATOR: Are you suggesting we invited the 9/11 Attacks, sir?

PAUL: I'm suggesting that we listen to the people who attacked us and the reason they did it, and they are delighted that we're over there because Osama bin Laden has said, "I'm glad you're over on our sand because we can target you so much easier." They've already now since that time have killed 3,400 of our men, and I don't think it was necessary.

GIULIANI: That's really an extraordinary statement. That's an extraordinary statement, as someone who lived through the attack of September 11, that we invited the attack because we were attacking Iraq. I don't think I've heard that before, and I've heard some pretty absurd explanations for September 11th. And I would ask the congressman to withdraw that comment and tell us that he didn't really mean that.

MODERATOR: Congressman?

PAUL: I believe very sincerely that the CIA is correct when they teach and talk about blowback. When we went into Iran in 1953 and installed the Shah, yes there was blowback. The reaction to that was the taking of our hostages, and that persists. And if we ignore that, we ignore that at our own risk. If we think we can do what we want around the world and not incite hatred, then we have a problem. They don't come here to attack us because we're rich and we're free, they come and attack us because we're over there. I mean what would we think if other foreign countries were doing that to us?

The debate was sponsored by Fox News. News Corporation, the parent company of Fox News, is a client of the Bracewell & Giuliani law firm. Accuracy in Media editor Cliff Kincaid charged after the debate that this represented a conflict of interest, and that Fox News moderators Chris Wallace and Wendell Goler and post-debate interviewer Sean Hannity failed to ask Giuliani pertinent follow-up questions regarding the Ron Paul exchange about the causes of the September 11 attacks.

In May, influential Christian conservative leader James Dobson, wrote that he could not fathom Giuliani's stance on the abortion issue and he would not vote for him if he were the Republican presidential nominee. He also cited Giuliani's three marriages and the former mayor's support for civil unions for gays as reasons why he could not support the candidate. Dobson wrote, "I cannot, and will not, vote for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. It is an irrevocable decision."

According to the Federal Elections Commission, Giuliani raised $18,029,974 in the first quarter of 2007, second to Mitt Romney among Republicans and fourth overall. Out of that money he spent only $6,080,239. Among that money he raised the second-most from Wall Street of all presidential candidates, with $1.8 million raised.

Summer 2007: The campaign heats up

Giuliani started June at the third GOP debate in Manchester, New Hampshire. After beginning to answer a question related to a comment that a Catholic bishop had made, comparing him to Pontius Pilate for his views on abortion, lightning struck and took out his microphone feed multiple times. Giuliani joked about the situation stating:

Look, for someone who went to parochial schools all his life, this is a very frightening thing that's happening right now. (Laughter.)

But the reality is, I respect, you know, the opinion of Catholic — (off mike) — religious leaders of all kinds. Religion is very important to me, it's a very important part of my life. But ultimately, as a — (off mike) — I’ve been in public life most of my life and taken oaths of office to enforce the law, I’ve got to make the decisions that I think are the right ones in a country like ours.

And my view on abortion is that it's wrong, but that ultimately government should not be enforcing that decision on a woman. That's — that is my view that I — I consult my religion, I consult my reading of the Constitution, I consult my views of what I think are important in a pluralistic society, and the reality that we have to respect the fact that there are people that are equally as religious, equally as moral that make a different decision about this. And should government put them in jail?

On June 11, 2007, Giuliani released "Twelve Commitments to the American People" that he wants to accomplish if he is elected president; these were intended to become the centerpieces of his campaign. Two days later, he released an expanded version of the twelve commitments, with more detailed goals for each one.

Jake Tapper of ABC News described them as "a laundry list of generally conservative positions on fiscal discipline, tax-cutting and anti-terrorism plans."

In June 2007, Giuliani drew some criticism for dropping out of the August Iowa Straw Poll. Some Republican officials felt the move could be seen as "dissing Iowa." In response, a man in a chicken suit, known as the Iowa Chicken, began demonstrating at Giuliani's appearances in Iowa. Despite this, Giuliani maintained that he was still planning on competing in the Iowa Caucus. Some political observers have opined that the Straw Poll results are bought by campaigns.

Polls taken in June showed that Giuliani's Iowa support had dropped slightly from the mid-20s to 15% - though this may have been due to the exposure of Fred Thompson rather than his dropping out of the Iowa Straw Poll. The same month, a poll of New York voters revealed that a majority of New York City voters disapproved of him, while Giuliani's favorable rating among New York Republicans was 76%.

Giuliani had emerged as the frontrunner after overtaking John McCain in the polls. With the exposure and eventual entrance of Fred Thompson into the field, Giuliani's poll numbers began to drop. But he held on to his status as frontrunner. According to the CBS News Poll taken June 26–28, Giuliani held the lead over Thompson 34% to 21%.

In July, the Associated Press reported that Giuliani was focusing his time on more populated states with more delegates, such as California and Florida, rather than primary battleground states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Indeed, Sam Brownback, a lower-tier candidate had more staff in Iowa than Giuliani did. Some political analysts called it a risky strategy that had never been attempted before by a Republican presidential candidate. In any case, Giuliani had never grown used to the small-scale, retail politics that Iowa and New Hampshire campaigning demanded, preferring instead to travel in a large entourage and look for media opportunities. On August 11, 2007, the Ames Straw Poll was held. Mitt Romney led with 31.6 percent; Thompson received 1.4 percent; Giuliani received 1.3 percent.

Giuliani unveiled his health care plan on July 31, 2007, which proposed a tax deduction (not a tax credit) of up to $15,000 for families and up to $7,500 for individuals who purchase private individual health insurance policies. Giuliani wrote about his plan on August 3, 2007, in an article to the Boston Globe. In it he stated that taxes should not be raised to provide more health care but instead lowered for "individual empowerment". He talked about the creation of a tax-free Health Savings Account that would allow individuals and small businesses to stock up on health insurance and in effect lower rates.

In August, Giuliani claimed that he "was at Ground Zero as often, if not more, than most workers." This angered some NY Fire and Police personnel. A New York Times study a week later found that—while his appointment logs were unavailable for the six days immediately following the attacks—he spent a total of 29 hours over three months at the site. This contrasted with recovery workers at the site who spent this much time at the site in two to three days. However, Giuliani scaled back in his claims recognizing that he didn't mean to say it exactly as it came out,

Giuliani declined to discuss his religion when asked if he considered himself a "traditional, practicing Roman Catholic" at a town hall meeting in Iowa on August 7, 2007. He believes this is a personal matter and that there shouldn't be a religious test for public office. He would explain further stating:

Giuliani received another personal question at a public appearance in Derry, New Hampshire on August 16, when he was asked "[H]ow you could expect the loyal following of Americans when you are not getting it from your own family?" He replied, "I love my family very, very much and will do anything for them.... The best thing I can say is kind of, 'Leave my family alone, just like I'll leave your family alone.'"

Later in August, the campaign hired Scott Howell & Company, headed by Heath Thompson who as George W. Bush's campaign director in South Carolina in the 2000 election helped the president win the state by eleven points. The company is led by Scott Howell, the same consultant that produced the controversial "Harold, call me" advertisement against Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. that critics deemed racially insensitive but helped Bob Corker win the senate race. The firm has also represented the winning campaigns of John Thune of South Dakota, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas. Also representing the Giuliani camp as consultants are, Chris Mottola and Associates, BrabenderCox and Crossroads Media.

In the second quarter, Giuliani revealed that he raised $17 million, first among Republicans and third overall behind Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

September 2007: Frontrunner status

In early September 2007 Giuliani addressed a convention of troopers in Portland, Maine stating that he would create programs in the mold of COMPSTAT which he developed as mayor, to fight terrorism and promote border security, calling the programs TerrorSTAT and BorderSTAT. Giuliani also stated that he supported an ID card system for the government to keep track of information on immigrants to help eliminate illegal immigration and crime. He touted his experience in law enforcement stating, "I don't think there's been a president since Teddy Roosevelt that's had as much experience with policing as I've had."

Giuliani wrote an essay speaking about the need for changes in the State Department and a "revolution in diplomatic affairs". The essay entitled "Toward a Realistic Peace" recognizes the need for a return to the policies of the Eisenhower Administration, praising it as the last coherent policy-making and policy-executing system in Washington. The essay criticizes the Clinton Administration stating,"We have responded forcefully to the Terrorists' War on Us, abandoning a decade long — and counterproductive — strategy of defensive reaction in favor of a vigorous offense." Giuliani stresses that diplomacy should be an important facet of foreign policy but cannot be overused.

The Giuliani campaign paid for an ad in the New York Times published September 14, 2007. Its aim was to counter an ad published by the left-wing website MoveOn.org the previous day calling General David Petraeus "General Betray Us". Giuliani's ad also attacked Hillary Clinton for not denouncing MoveOn.org's ad and questioned her statements about General Petraeus' report to Congress on Iraq. Highlighted was the statement made by Clinton about "the willing suspension of disbelief". The ad was completed with a statement by Giuliani saying, "These times call for statesmanship, not politicians spewing political venom."

On September 21, 2007, numerous news agencies reported on Giuliani's interruption by, presumably, a phone call from his wife during a publicized National Rifle Association speech. Shortly thereafter a vast array of Internet blogs criticized the call as being a phony political gimmick. A source from within Giuliani's camp said, "what you saw today was a candidate in a spontaneous moment on the campaign trail." While Jeff Barker, a campaign spokesman confirmed, "the call was not planned." The official stance from Giuliani was not concrete, as during the same day Mitt Romney's political camp revealed a prior video wherein June, he had again left his cell phone on and received another call from his wife. According to the Wall Street Journal editorial page, Giuliani has taken approximately 40 calls during speeches. A fact checker piece by The Washington Post surveyed other reports of such calls and concluded, "This is a puzzling one. Without more information, it is difficult to divine Giuliani's true motivations for taking these calls."

In September, reports surfaced of a coordinated grassroots campaign "$9.11 for Rudy", which attempted to solicit $9.11 in the form of donations. One of their supporters, Abraham Sofaer, attempted to hold a fundraiser for Giuliani during the "National House Party Night", and drew criticism. Democratic presidential candidate Chris Dodd called the theme "unconscionable, shameless and sickening." However, Giuliani's campaign spokeswoman Maria Comella stated, "These are two volunteers who acted independently of and without the knowledge of the campaign, their decision to ask individuals for that amount was an unfortunate choice."

Perhaps because of Giuliani's frontrunner status, some national leaders of the Christian right including James Dobson, Richard Viguerie, Tony Perkins and Morton Blackwell, attended a meeting of the Council for National Policy in September 2007, at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City. At this meeting, they decided that they would consider supporting a third-party candidate for president if a pro-choice candidate were to win the Republican nomination. The CNP's official statement read, "If the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate, we will consider running a third-party candidate."

By the end of September 2007, most polls showed Giuliani to have more support than any of the other declared Republican candidates, with only Senator Thompson and Governor Romney showing greater support in some state polls. Specifically, state-by-state polls for the 2008 Republican nomination showed that Giuliani polled ahead of all other candidates in a majority of states including the delegate-rich states of California, New York, and Florida. A September 26, 2007 Quinnipiac poll taken in New Jersey gave the mayor a slight lead over Hillary Clinton in the traditional blue state, 45% to 44%.

Autumn 2007: A string of endorsements

In October 2007, Former Wisconsin Governor, Secretary of Health and Human Services and 2008 presidential candidate Tommy Thompson endorsed Giuliani. Thompson told the Associated Press in a statement that "Rudy Giuliani has shown that he is a true leader. He can and will win the nomination and the presidency. He is America's mayor, and during a period of time of great stress for this country he showed tremendous leadership." Thompson was the first withdrawn Republican presidential candidate and the first member (past or present) of the Bush Administration to make an endorsement in the race.

Texas Governor Rick Perry endorsed Giuliani for President of the United States stating that "Rudy Giuliani is the most prepared individual of either party to be the next President...I'm not talkin' about any mayor, I'm talkin' about America's Mayor". The endorsement fueled speculation that Giuliani would select Perry to be his running mate for Vice President if he won the nomination.

An October 29, 2007 study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy found that Giuliani had received the most media coverage of any of the Republican 2008 presidential candidates, being the subject of 9 percent of all stories (compared to 7 percent for John McCain and 5 percent for Mitt Romney). Giuliani's coverage amount trailed that of Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, however. The study found that 28 percent of pertinent stories had a favorable tone towards him, 37 percent had an unfavorable tone, with the balance neutral. This ratio was very close to Clinton's, better than McCain's, and worse than Obama's.

Criticism of Giuliani's campaign began to peak in later October. During a Democratic presidential debate, candidate Joe Biden remarked of Giuliani, "There's only three things he mentions in a sentence – a noun, a verb, and 9/11." A BBC associate agreed with Biden's assessment stating, "Mr Giuliani's appeal as the man who led New York through the terrorist attacks is occasionally over-emphasised in his campaign."

On November 7, 2007, evangelist, Christian Broadcasting Network founder, and past presidential candidate Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President of the United States at a news conference in Washington, D.C. This was viewed by observers as a key development in the race, as it gave credence that evangelicals and other social conservatives could support Giuliani despite some of Giuliani's positions on social issues such as abortion and gay rights. It also showed that support from evangelicals was split among multiple candidates, as withdrawn candidate Sam Brownback had recently endorsed John McCain and prominent figures Bob Jones III and Paul Weyrich had recently endorsed Mitt Romney; as the Baltimore Sun noted, "It suggests that Christian conservatives aren't ready to coalesce behind any single candidate and are unable to stop Giuliani from winning the nomination." The action was protested by the U.S. Islamic advocacy group CAIR, which said that Robertson had "a clear record of anti-Muslim bigotry" and called on Giuliani to renounce the endorsement.

In the third quarter, Giuliani raised $11 million, first among Republicans. As of October, 2007, he had raised $44 million and had $16 million cash on hand.

Late Fall 2007: Under attack

On November 9, 2007, Bernard Kerik, whom Giuliani had appointed to several top positions during his mayoralty, brought in as a partner at Giuliani Partners, and recommended for Secretary of Homeland Security, was indicted on 16 counts of tax fraud and other federal charges. Due to questions about Giuliani's judgement in promoting Kerik's career, The New York Times said that the forthcoming legal proceedings could "cast a shadow" on Giuliani's presidential campaign, while The Washington Post said the indictment "was expected to provide an opening for political rivals" of Giuliani. Giuliani said that "I made a mistake of not clearing him effectively enough. I take the responsibility for that", and defended Kerik's performance in the city positions he had held. Giuliani also declined to say whether he might one day issue a presidential pardon for Kerik. On November 13, 2007, former publisher Judith Regan, with whom Kerik had had an extramarital affair, filed a $100 million defamation lawsuit against News Corporation, the affiliate of Fox News, claiming among other things that the corporation's executives told her in 2004 to lie to federal investigators about her relationship with Kerik, in order to protect Giuliani's future presidential campaign.

By late November 2007, there were consistent attacks, sometimes personal, between Giuliani and fellow Republican contender Mitt Romney. The tension between them was increased by Romney's lead in polling in the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, while Giuliani continued to lead in national polls. The two traded charges on past appointments, with Giuliani questioning Romney's appointment of a Massachusetts judge who allowed the release without bail of a convicted killer who was subsequently charged in another murder. Romney responded that Giuliani was "throwing stones from a glass house" in light of the Kerik indictment. The two also sparred over the immigration issue during a November 28 debate. However, throughout the campaign, Giuliani was reluctant to respond to attacks from his fellow Republican competitors, and would reject any negative ads his campaign staff produced against them.

In late November 2007, The Politico reported that while Mayor of New York in 1999 and 2000, Giuliani had billed to obscure city agencies several tens of thousands of dollars of mayoral security expenses incurred while visiting Judith Nathan, with whom he was having an extramarital affair, in The Hamptons. Giuliani denied that he or his administration had done anything improper, and called the charges a "political hit job". Questions continued in the press not over his need for the security, but over the appearance of trying to hide the expenses in the city budget, which Giuliani aides eventually said was due to vendor payment efficiencies. Shortly thereafter, the New York Daily News reported another angle on the story, stating that Giuliani had ordered police department protection and chauffeuring services for Nathan in early 2000, before her relationship with him had even become public.

During late November and early December 2007, several stories were published in the press regarding clients of Giuliani's consultancy firm, Giuliani Partners, and his law firm, Bracewell & Giuliani. The Village Voice and others reported that Giuliani Partners had been given contracts from the Qatar Ministry of the Interior for security advice and consulting since 2005, and these contracts had been overseen by then-Minister of Religious Affairs Abdullah Bin Khalid Al-Thani, a member of Qatar's royal family who is considered sympathetic to Al Qaeda and who had sheltered future September 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed from the FBI in 1996. The New York Times reported that Bracewell & Giuliani had lobbied for an Ethiopian political faction opposing its government and in opposition to goals of American foreign policy. In fact, Giuliani had already stepped down as CEO and chairman of Giuliani Partners in June 2007, although this action was not disclosed publicly. On December 4, 2007, in the wake of the latest attention to the firm's client base, Giuliani Partners announced the stepping down, with Giuliani defending his work there, saying, "Everything I did at Giuliani Partners was totally legal, totally ethical. There's nothing for me to explain about. We acted honorably, decently." Giuliani maintained his equity interest in the firm.

The Nathan security billing and Giuliani client base stories dominated Giuliani's press coverage for much of a week and coincided with a significant drop in his national poll figures and a worsening of his fortunes in the first caucus and primary states. Combined with the Kerik developments, they associated an air of political-personal doubt around the candidate. The Wall Street Journal stated that "These are perilous times for Rudy Giuliani." In a lengthy interview on the nationally televised Meet the Press, Giuliani defended the security detail decisions, saying they were warranted by threat assessments at the time, and defended his refusal to release a full Giuliani Partners client list, saying every client of significance had already been pointed out in the press. Within a month after the original Nathan report, an investigation of city records by The New York Times revealed that the billing of mayoral travel-related expenses to obscure city agencies had started two years before the Nathan visits began, and totaled a hundred times more than what was spent for the Nathan visits, thus strongly suggesting that the Nathan visits "had nothing to do with any accounting legerdemain." Nevertheless, the political damage had been done.

At the end of the month, Giuliani participated in the November 28, 2007 YouTube Debate to respond to allegations of a perceived 9-11 centric candidacy and other criticisms, Giuliani responded that he "...would like people to look at my whole record. Long before September 11, 2001...the reason that I believe I'm qualified to be president of the United States is not because of September 11, 2001. It's because I've been tested...and I got very, very remarkable results. And that is the evaluation of other people, not me." He also began airing his first television advertisement in key caucus-primary states. The ad concentrated solely on the transformation of New York City under the Giuliani mayoralty. Observers likened the ad to Republican icon Ronald Reagan's famous "Morning in America" ad. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll conducted November 28 found that in the crucial state of Florida 53% of voters found Giuliani to be the best candidate to fight the War on Terrorism. 33% of the Florida voters found Giuliani to be the best to deal with the Iraq conflict and 34% viewed him as the best candidate concerning economic issues. Giuliani led among primary voters in Florida receiving 38%, ahead of his closest rival, Mitt Romney by 21%. However, in head to head matchups, Giuliani was losing his lead. A November 9–11th poll had Clinton and Giuliani tied at 45% in the traditional red state of Virginia.

Winter 2007: A strategy in peril

By mid-December 2007, Giuliani was keeping to his strategy of campaigning in big states such as New York, New Jersey, Florida, California, Illinois, Missouri, and other Super Duper Tuesday states, while the other contenders focused on the earlier states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. However, the strategy was now seen as at risk. Not only were his poll numbers in the early states falling — despite an attempt for a while to boost his standing in New Hampshire with $3 million of radio and television advertising, which ended up not having any effect — but he had lost his national lead and had fallen into statistical ties with Mike Huckabee. Most dangerously, his lead in Florida, the first state that he planned to heavily contest, was dwindling as well. Furthermore, changes in Giuliani's campaign messaging went largely unnoticed by the press, given that they were focused on Iowa and New Hampshire developments. Giuliani's woes were further symbolized when he got sick with flu-like symptoms during a campaign flight and was admitted overnight to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri as a precaution. Giuliani resumed limited campaigning in subsequent days; the campaign would not give precise details of tests done; Giuliani then stated it had been a "terrible headache", not flu, and a full medical report would be given after Christmas; but the health question had become an ongoing campaign story. Giuliani did indeed get a clean bill of health from his doctor on the day after Christmas, but again a minor amount of political damage had been done.

Giuliani's voter appeal continued to be hurt by the previous month's stories about his personal and business life, as well as the reduced level of civil strife in Iraq undercutting his security-based campaign messages. When the close proximity of the first contests to the holidays led to many candidates putting out Christmas videos — allowing them to keep presenting their message but in a more appropriate setting — Giuliani chose two videos which combined his policy goals with humorous asides with Santa Claus regarding fruit cakes as gifts or the vain hope that "all the presidential candidates can just get along."

Iowa and New Hampshire

In the January 3 Iowa Republican caucus, in which Giuliani essentially did not compete, he finished a distant sixth out of seven candidates with 4 percent of the vote. He had been second in polls in the state as late as early October.

Giuliani did compete, off and on, in the January 8 New Hampshire primary, making the second most appearances there of any Republican after Mitt Romney and spending the third most money there after Romney and John McCain. He had been second in the polls in the state as late as the start of December, but finished fourth in the primary with 9 percent of the vote, far behind McCain and Romney and trailing as well third-place finisher Mike Huckabee.

Giuliani continued to maintain that his strategy of focusing on later, larger primaries would result in his winning the nomination. Before the New Hampshire votes had been counted, Giuliani's campaign moved to Florida in preparation for the state's January 29 primary. "I want you to come join us there and help us", he said. "And help us in Connecticut. Help us in New York. Help us in New Jersey." By January 2008, Giuliani's popularity had slipped significantly, both in the polls and media attention. Measurements by the University of Navarra indicated that throughout the month, Giuliani's amount of global media attention was a distant fourth among Republican candidates, trailing Huckabee, Romney, and McCain.

Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina

Meanwhile, Giuliani's results in the early primaries and caucuses were very low: sixth place with 3% of the vote in the Michigan primary (where he had leading in polls as recently as mid-December), sixth place with 4% of the vote in the Nevada caucuses, and sixth place with 2% of the vote in the South Carolina primary (where he had been tied for the lead in polls as late as mid-December).

Florida

Giuliani said on January 8 that Florida was "real important" to the campaign, and that they would put "almost everything" into Florida. Several senior staffers in the campaign went without their January paychecks in order to assure that more funds could be spent in the state.

A January 14, 2008 poll from Rasmussen Reports showed that Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Mitt Romney were all tied within the margin of error On January 23, 2008, the Miami-Herald reported that Giuliani's Florida support was in "freefall" as polls showed him fighting Huckabee (who was only campaigning part-time in the state) for third place, well behind front-runners McCain and Romney. By a January 24, 2008 poll, Giuliani was in third place in Florida with 20% of the vote, compared to 23% for John McCain and 27% for Mitt Romney.

Another blow to Giuliani was the late endorsements for McCain of Florida Senator and former Chairman of the Republican National Committee Mel Martinez on January 25 and the highly popular Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist, on January 26. Crist had planned to endorse Giuliani in the early autumn, and had still been expected to do so in early January. The Giuliani camp had placed much emphasis on the value of a Crist endorsement, and had focused their campaign strategies around it. They were thus visibly upset by Crist's endorsement of McCain. Whereas previously Giuliani had declared that he would campaign on regardless of the Florida results, he now was more vague. By the day before the Florida vote, a new Quinnipiac University Polling Institute final poll showed Giuliani's slide continuing down to 14 percent, 18 points behind McCain. Giuliani chartered a Boeing 727 to conduct a barnstorming tour of airports: Orlando Sanford International Airport, St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport, Southwest Florida International Airport (near Fort Myers), and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, with actor-surrogate Jon Voight along with him, but the crowds for the tarmac rallies usually struggled to reach one hundred. Giuliani's staff handed out gifts to members of the press on the plane, which one reporter said seemed like a "going-away present". By that night, it was being reported that Giuliani might quit the race if he failed to pull off a surprise win there.

Withdrawal

Although he hoped to win most of the necessary delegates for the nomination on Super Tuesday, February 5, late January polls by Rasmussen Reports showed that he was in 5th place in California with 11% support, and a Rasmussen Reports poll out of New Jersey showed him in 2nd place with 27% support. One New Jersey poll had him losing a 32-point lead since October and trailing McCain there. Perhaps the biggest concern for Giuliani was the fact that two polls released on January 20 showed McCain with a double-digit lead in Giuliani's home state of New York. A Zogby poll showed a close race in New York, but also put McCain ahead.

Thus, following his Florida defeat, there was no reason to continue on. Giuliani flew cross-country to give his withdrawal announcement on January 30 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, endorsing McCain at the same time. The endorsement was done with enthusiasm, as Giuliani and McCain were genuine friends as well as allied on many political issues.

Giuliani's defeat continued a long tradition of Mayors of New York not succeeding at attempts for higher office.

Staff and advisors

Giuliani's campaign staff and advisory team included:

Ashley Anderson Jeff Anderson Kate Anson Chris Applegate Kevin Artl John Avlon Geoff Bailey Healy Baumgardner Amara Birman Janelle Bonanno Whitney Bowles Owen Brennan Tim Brown Mario Bruno Elliott Bundy Mark Campbell Mik Carpenter John Case Leah Chambliss Justin Charboneau Stacy Cline Chris Coffey Matt Coleman Franklin Coley Jeremy Collins Philip Consuegra Emily Cornell Nick Dalsey Tony Delgado Marco DeSena Eric Diaz Frank DiStefano Matt Dogali Molly Donlin Mike DuHaime Jimmy Duquette Emily Ernsdorf Fred Flather Megan Foran Steve Frank Phil Frattaroli Dan Freedman Jemma Futterman James Garcia Alexis Garcia Tracie Gibler Brian Giglio Rudy S. Giuliani Sam Gordon Jeff Grant Jeff Grappone Kim Griffin Yehuda Gross Kathryn Grosso Chris Gulugian-Taylor Jen Hallowell Katie Harbath Misty Haungs Cam Henderson Chris Henick Catherine Hirko Bob Holste Ashley Ingram Jessica Irving Mike Jaacks Ted Jarrett Michael Joffrion Patrick Jones KC Jones Kim Jorns Angela Junker Randy Kantner Anne Kennedy Jake Ketzner Ken Kurson Jessica Lauren Lambert Jim Lee Larry Levy Tamra Lhota Miguel Lopez Brent Lowder Matt Mahoney Michelle Marini John Marino Matt Mason Nicholas McNeely Mark Meeks Ryan Meerstein Isaac Meier Dan Meyers Jason Miller Cat Miller Maureen Mitchell Susan Molinari Katie Morris Foster Morss Mike Needham Matthew Nichols Allie Nigolian Noelle Nikpour Tyler O'Connor Rick Oettinger Matt O'Keefe Breanna Olson John Orlando Pat Oxford Randy Pack Michele Packman Jessica Patterson Tim Pearson Mark Phillippe Patrick Phillippi Bruceanne Phillips Bryan Pickens Gretchen Picotte Jen Pollom Chuck Poplstein Rick Porter Krista Powers Ann Printon Lori Raad Rich Rebisz Carol Reed Al Ribeiro Ashlee Rich Ory Rinat Thomas Roberts Megan Robertson Mike Roman Kyle Rouse Molly Rutledge Kevin Sanders Peter Schalestock Brent Seaborn Shahla Seaborn Paul Seago Matt Seney Gwen Sheehan Chris Sheirer Jayme Siemer Bill Skelly Kathryn Staczek Mike Stakias Bill Stepien Pete Stevenson Justin Stokes Jason Stverak Tim Swain Emily Tadlock Dan Tyrrell Karen Unger Fritz Vaughan Geoff Verhoff Kristin Vieira Rebecca Wales Christine Walton Bryan Watkins David Watts Jocelyn Webster Heather Weintrobe Jayson White Brenna Wieker Rick Wiley Caroline Williams Yancy Williams Shanna Woodbury Alex Yergin Mike Zarrelli

Communications

Research

Giuliani's campaign faced challenges due to repeated scandals involving political associates and campaign staff. In June 2007, the campaign was forced to change its choice for Pennsylvania campaign chair after the media noted the selectee, Pennsylvania GOP National Committeeman Bob Asher, had been convicted of bribery-related charges in 1986. Giuliani's state chairman in South Carolina, state treasurer Thomas Ravenel, was indicted on June 19, 2007, on cocaine distribution charges. Giuliani released a statement saying that Ravenel had stepped down from his position in the Giuliani campaign. Ravenel's father, former congressman Arthur Ravenel, Jr., replaced his son as state co-chair. The elder Ravenel had previously seen his own share of controversy due to racially inflammatory remarks. Ravenel has called the NAACP the "National Association of Retarded People" and once said that his fellow white congressional members operated on "black time" which he characterized as meaning "fashionably late." In July 2007 it was revealed that U.S. Senator and Giuliani Southern Region campaign chair David Vitter (R - Louisiana) had been associated with an alleged Washington prostitution service. Subsequently, a former brothel operator from New Orleans also asserted Senator Vitter had been one her clients. Giuliani stated that the allegations were "a personal matter" for Vitter.

In the foreign policy realm, Podhoretz and others drew media attention, because of their neoconservative roots and calls for the assertive use of American power abroad to spread American values.

Endorsements

Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign was endorsed by some notable individuals including businessmen, politicians, athletes, and actors.

Aftermath

Giuliani's run for the presidency ended with a considerable debt. Over a year later, he was still paying it back. During the first quarter of 2009, he gave his campaign $200,000 of his own money, the first time he had done this, but the campaign was still $2.4 million in arrears, the largest such remaining debt for any of the 2008 contenders. In addition to this considerable debt, Giuliani's "high appearance fees dropped like a stone" following his failure to win the nomination.