Rally 'round the flag effect

Mueller's definition

Political scientist John Mueller wrote his landmark paper Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson in 1970, where he conceived the idea of the effect. Mueller defined the effect as coming from an event with three qualities:

1. "Is international"
2. "Involves the United States and particularly the President directly"
3. "Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused"

In addition, Mueller created five categories of rallies. These categories are considered dated by modern political scientists, as they rely heavily on Cold War events. Mueller's five categories are:

1. "Sudden US military intervention" (e.g., Korean War, Bay of Pigs Invasion)
2. "Major diplomatic actions" (e.g., Truman Doctrine)
3. "Dramatic technological developments" (e.g., Sputnik)
4. "US-Soviet summit meetings" (e.g., Potsdam Conference)
5. "Major military developments in ongoing wars" (e.g., Tet Offensive)

Causes and durations

Since Mueller's original theories, two schools of thought have emerged to explain the causes of the syndrome. The first, "The Patriotism School of Thought" holds that in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity. The second, "The Opinion Leadership School" believes that the rally emerges from a lack of criticism from members of the opposition party, most often in the United States Congress. If opposition party members appear to support the president, the media has no conflict to report, thus it appears to the public that all is well with the performance of the president. The two theories have both been criticized, but it is generally accepted that the Patriotism School of thought is better to explain causes of rallies, while the Opinion Leadership School of thought is better to explain duration of rallies. It is also believed that the lower the presidential approval rating before the crisis, the larger the increase will be in terms of percentage points because it leaves the president more room for improvement. For example, Franklin Roosevelt only had a 12% increase in approval from 72% to 84% following the Attack on Pearl Harbor, whereas George W. Bush had a 39% increase from 51% to 90% following the attacks on September 11.

Another theory about the cause of the syndrome is believed to be embedded in the US Constitution. Unlike in other countries, the constitution makes the President both head of government and head of state. Because of this, the president receives a temporary boost in popularity because his Head of State role gives him symbolic importance to the American people. However, as time goes on his duties as Head of Government require partisan decisions that polarize opposition parties and diminish popularity. This theory falls in line more with the Opinion Leadership School.

Due to the highly statistical nature of presidential polls, University of Alabama political scientist John O'Neal has approached the study of rally sound the flag using mathematics. O'Neal has postulated that the Opinion Leadership School is the more accurate of the two using mathematical equations. These equations are based on quantified factors such as the number of headlines from the New York Times about the crisis, the presence of bipartisan support or hostility, and prior popularity of the president.

Historical examples

The effect has been examined within the context of nearly every major foreign policy crises since World War II. Some notable examples:

Controversy

The idea of the syndrome is seen as controversial because it implies that crises and more importantly, wars actually benefit presidents for political purposes. It is argued that because wars increase the popularity of a president, a president might be more willing to use military force if his approval rating is dropping. Because this diverts attention away from the handling of domestic policies, some believe the rally round the flag syndrome encourages diversionary foreign policy.