Paul K. Davis is a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California. Dr. Davis holds a Ph.D. in Chemical Physics from M.I.T. and a B.S. from the University of Michigan. After working in research at the US Department of Transportation, he joined the Department of Defense for 4 years to work in Stretegy and Program Analysis. He now holds the position of Senior Principal Researcher at RAND, and Professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
He is known for work in strategic planning methods such as exploratory analysis under uncertainty and capabilities-based planning, for modeling, and for applications of social science to counterterrorism.
Dr. Davis has also been active in contributing to professional organizations and international research groups, as well as to numerous national panels such as a national-academy study on prompt conventional global strike. He is currently a member of the NATO Research Group SAS-085, a group focused on Agility, its definition, measurement, and contributions to the effectiveness and efficiency of organizations, collections of organizations, processes, systems, and individuals.
(with Walter Perry, John Hollywood, and David Manheim)."'Uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information fusion: assessing threat with soft, uncertain, and conflicting evidence" ." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 2016. ISBN 978-0-8330-9277-9. Held in 74 libraries according to
(editor and co-author with others). "Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp. 2011. ISBN 978-0-8330-5249-0. Held in 3 libraries, according to
(with K. Cragin, co-editor). "Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp. 2009. ISBN 978-0-8330-4706-9. Held in 199 libraries, according to
(with Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck). "Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp, 2008. ISBN 978-0-8330-4589-8 Held at 447 libraries in 7 editions, according to
(with Jonathan Kulick and Michael Egner). "Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision Support Systems." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp, 2005. ISBN 978-0-8330-3808-1. Held at 260 libraries in 5 editions, according to
"(with Brian M. Jenkins) Deterrence & Influence in Counterterrorism A Component in the War on Al Qaeda." Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2002. Held at 721 libraries in 5 editions, according to
(editor). "New Challenges in Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough." Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp. 1994. ISBN 978-0-8330-5249-0. Held in 254 libraries, according to
Analytic architecture for capabilities-based planning, mission-system analysis, and transformation. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2002. ISBN 978-0-8330-3155-6. Held at 158 libraries in 3 editions, according to
(with D. Gompert and R. Kugler) "Adaptiveness in defense: the basis of a new framework." Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996.OCLC Number 36019859. Held at 23 libraries according to
Peer reviewed journal articles
(with Peter E. Wilson). "The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning." Joint Forces Quarterly 63, October 2011, pp. 13–20.
(with Robert Anderson). "Improving the Composability of DoD Models and Simulations." J. Defense Modeling and Simulation 1 (1), 2004, pp. 5–17."
