Paul Donovan (economist)

Education

Donovan studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St Anne's College, Oxford, graduating in 1993. He also holds an MSc in Financial Economics from the University of London. Donovan is an Honorary Fellow of St Anne's College, and a member of the Vice Chancellor's Circle of Oxford University.

Career

In 1992 Donovan joined UBS Phillips and Drew, as the investment banking arm of UBS was then known, as an intern in the Fixed Income economics department. In 1995 he moved to be global economist. His appointment as Global Chief Economist of UBS Wealth Management was announced in June 2016. He has been a Managing Director of UBS since 2004 and sits as a member of the Wealth Management Global Investment Committee.

Economic views and notable research

Donovan has co-authored two books on environmental economics with UBS colleague and fellow St Anne's College alumna Julie Hudson. The book "From Red to Green" examined the concept of the environmental credit crunch, arguing that use of environmental resources could be considered to be an inter-temporal transfer of living standards in a similar manner to financial credit, and that the consequences of a credit crunch could usefully be applied to environmental issues. The subsequent book "Food policy and the environmental credit crunch" looked at the way in which food supply and consumption was dependent on non-renewable resources, and how this may be rectified so as to provide sustainable food supply in the future. A central argument was the need to control waste with holistic policies, not looking at specific parts of the food distribution process in isolation.

In 2015 Donovan published "The Truth About Inflation" arguing that inflation was a poorly understood concept in financial markets. In particular he focused on the issue of inflation inequality - the idea that aggregate inflation indices do not accurately portray the cost of living for certain groups in society. In particular, as income inequality increases, Donovan contends that a plutocratic statistic like consumer price inflation will increasingly misrepresent the cost of living for lower income groups in society. Donovan has criticised the idea of helicopter money arguing that it reduces policy inflexibility, has dire consequences if not controlled, and that raising price inflation expectations may not be desirable if wage inflation expectations remain weak.

Donovan was one of the collaborators on the Guy Fox Project's book "How the world really works, the economy", a guide to economics aimed at children of around 10 years of age.

Donovan is a self-described political economist, and has been critical of the veneration of mathematical modelling in economics. He supports the idea of the relationship between policy and the economy as being in flux (the Lucas critique).

Donovan has written several pieces of research on the economic damage that arises from prejudice in a society, focusing on the impact on productivity and labour markets. Donovan has argued that prejudice irrationally discards skilled workers, undermines existing workers' skills, and reduces flexibility in the workplace. Donovan has specifically addressed the economic consequences of prejudice around same sex marriage, arguing that the act of denying groups in society access to an institution that grants social status should be considered to be prejudice, and that this undermines economic efficiency.

In 2006 Donovan authored a detailed analysis of the London 2012 Olympic games, in his role as economic adviser to the East London Business Alliance (ELBA). In this research, Donovan argued that the macro economic benefits of the games could amount to between £5.9bn and £7.8bn of long term gains for the London Boroughs of Hackney, Newham and Tower Hamlets.

Other interests

In 2003 Donovan co-founded the Peter Culverhouse Memorial Trust, a charity funding long term cancer care and research into low grade glioma. He sits on the investment committee of St Anne's College, Oxford and has worked with the Bridge Academy school in Hackney. Donovan describes himself as a keen skier and an amateur heavyweight boxer.