New York gubernatorial election, 2014

Background

Democrat Andrew Cuomo, the Attorney General of New York, was elected Governor in 2010, defeating Republican businessman Carl Paladino by a nearly 2 to 1 margin, 63% to 33%. Cuomo succeeded retiring Democratic Governor David Paterson.

Republicans did not believe Cuomo was vulnerable, calling him a "shoo-in for reelection", citing his high popularity and large campaign war chest, which stood at $33 million in January 2014. By contrast, Cuomo spent $28 million in the entire 2010 campaign. This belief is echoed by the predictions of The Cook Political Report, Daily Kos Elections, Governing, RealClearPolitics, The Rothenberg Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, all of whom rate the election as "Safe Democratic".

Democratic primary

Progressive minor parties saw an opportunity to make headway in the state due to Cuomo's relatively conservative stances on taxes and spending. A poll commissioned by businessman and progressive political activist Bill Samuels in March 2014 indicated that even an unknown left-wing third-party challenger on the Working Families Party line could garner between 6% and 13% of the vote without threatening Cuomo's chances of winning re-election. A later poll by the Siena Research Institute taken of 772 registered voters from April 12–17, 2014, with a margin of error of ± 3.5%, found Cuomo taking 39% to Republican candidate Rob Astorino's 24% and an unnamed Working Families Party candidate also at 24%. A Quinnipiac poll conducted in May 2014 produced a similar result to Siena's, with Cuomo at 37%, Astorino at 24% and the third party candidate at 22%. The Working Families Party nonetheless cross-endorsed Cuomo in a bitterly contested convention vote, leaving Howie Hawkins of the Green Party as the sole progressive challenger assured of a place on the ballot.

In May 2014, after widespread speculation, Lieutenant Governor Robert Duffy confirmed that he would not run for a second term, expressing a desire to return to his home city of Rochester. Byron Brown, the Mayor of Buffalo; Kathy Hochul, a former U.S. Representative; Steve Bellone, the current Suffolk County Executive; Kevin Law, the former deputy Suffolk County executive; and Republican Joanie Mahoney, the County Executive of Onondaga County; were considered to be potential replacements. Within the Cuomo administration, potential names included Matt Driscoll, the former Mayor of Syracuse; RoAnn Destito, a former Assemblywoman; and Cesar A. Perales, the Secretary of State of New York. Hochul was revealed as Cuomo's running mate during the state Democratic convention on May 21, 2014.

Declared

Failed to qualify

Republican primary

It was believed that the Republicans would nominate someone who was not up for re-election in 2014 and so did not have to give up their office to run, who would use the campaign to raise their profile for a future run at statewide office. Rob Astorino, the Westchester County Executive and the only Republican to enter the race, is not up for re-election until 2017. Business magnate and television personality Donald Trump flirted with a run, but decided against it, instead running for President as a Republican in 2016 and winning the office. Candidates who received speculation as potential gubernatorial candidates without explicitly declining, but did not enter the race by the time of the state Republican convention in 2014, were former U.S. Representative Vito Fossella, Dutchess County Executive Marcus Molinaro and businessman and nominee for New York State Comptroller in 2010 Harry Wilson.

Assemblywomen Jane Corwin and Nicole Malliotakis both declined overtures to be the party's nominee for Lieutenant Governor, as did Rensselaer County Executive Kathleen M. Jimino and former Director of the Executive Office for United States Attorneys and former United States Attorney for the Western District of New York Michael A. Battle. On May 13, Astorino announced Chemung County Sheriff Christopher Moss as his running mate.

Declared

Declined

Major third parties

Besides the Democratic and Republican parties, the Conservative, Green, Independence and Working Families parties are qualified New York parties. These parties have automatic ballot access.

Conservative

Although the Conservative Party traditionally cross-endorses Republicans in most races, it has occasionally broken rank and nominated its own candidates. In gubernatorial elections, this most recently happened in 1990 when the party nominated Herbert London ahead of Republican nominee Pierre Andrew Rinfret. Incumbent Democratic Governor Mario Cuomo was re-elected with 53% of the vote and Rinfret only narrowly beat London, by 21% to 20%.

Conservative Party chairman Michael R. Long endorsed Rob Astorino in February 2014. Carl Paladino, currently a Buffalo Public Schools Board of Education member and the Republican nominee for Governor in 2010, had originally stated he would seek the Conservative Party line if the Republicans nominate Rob Astorino, but by March 2014 had withdrawn from any potential race and has stated he would (lukewarmly) support Astorino if Donald Trump were not to run.

Nominee

Green

In contrast to the other qualified parties, the Green Party of New York traditionally endorses its own candidates. The party held its nominating convention on May 17, 2014.

Nominee

Independence

The Independence Party of New York, which traditionally cross-endorses the candidate most likely to get them the most votes, was expected to nominate incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo as it did in 2010. Republican Rob Astorino refused the line, and several members of the Democratic Party called on Cuomo to do the same.

Despite the controversy, Cuomo accepted the nomination on May 22, 2014.

Nominee

Working Families

The Working Families Party traditionally cross-endorses Democrats, but many of its members (most of which are labor unions) have expressed reservations over endorsing incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo as they did in 2010.

The WFP convention, held on May 31, chose Cuomo over professor Zephyr Teachout by a 59%–41% margin in a contentious floor vote. Cuomo's supporters negotiated an agreement in which the governor would support the party agenda in exchange for their vote, expressly attempting to keep the party line solely as a second line for the Democrats; this agreement was met with widespread and vocal skepticism from Teachout's supporters, who insisted the WFP hold to its principles and that Cuomo could not be trusted to hold up to his end of the bargain.

Candidates

Nominee

Declared

Declined

Minor third parties

Any candidate not among the six qualified New York parties (Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Green, Independence and Working Families) must petition their way onto the ballot; they do not face primary elections. Independent nominating petitions began collecting signatures on July 8 and were due to the state by August 19.

Libertarian

The Libertarian Party of New York held its nominating convention on April 26, 2014. The nominating process required five rounds of voting, after which Michael McDermott was nominated.

Candidates

Nominee

Unsuccessful

Declined

Sapient

The party initially filed with Kendy Guzman as the running mate. As of August 26, Guzman had turned down the nomination and was replaced with Kalotee, the former chairman of the forcibly-dissolved Nassau County wing of the Independence Party.

Cohn is the only candidate on the ballot who did not participate in the lone gubernatorial debate.

Stop Common Core

The "Stop Common Core Party" (renamed after the election to the Reform Party) is a single-issue ballot line conceived by Republican nominee Rob Astorino, designed specifically to take advantage of New York's electoral fusion laws allowing candidates to combine their votes from multiple ballot lines.

Nominee

Women's Equality

The "Women's Equality Party" is a ballot line conceived by allies of incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo, designed specifically to take advantage of New York's electoral fusion laws allowing candidates to combine their votes from multiple ballot lines. The line is named after the Women's Equality Act, a bill that failed in the New York State Senate due to a stalemate over a provision codifying the landmark Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade into state law.

The formation of the ballot line was particularly controversial among feminists (particularly Zephyr Teachout, Cuomo's primary opponent) and was noted for its use of questionable campaign imagery, particularly a tour bus that bore a striking resemblance to a box of Tampax tampons. Additionally, the Working Families Party felt that the formation of the Women's Equality Party was an attempt to undermine the WFP as a viable party in New York politics. As a result of the siphoned votes, the WFP's ballot line was lowered behind the Conservative and Green parties.

Nominee

Failed to make ballot

Results

Despite a low voter turnout, Cuomo won easily. Although his victory was smaller than his 2010 Victory. Despite Astorino winning most of upstate New York, he was overwhelmed in New York City like Republicans usually are in New York. Cuomo was sworn in for second term as Governor. His Lt. Governor was replaced by former U.S. Representative Kathy Hochul due to health issues.

Aftermath

Preliminary results made available on election night showed Cuomo winning by a 54–41 percentage point margin. Cuomo lost nine percentage points from his previous election, with the Republicans gaining eight percentage points. Hawkins received just under 5 percent of the vote; preliminary indications show the Green Party taking Line D on the ballot, surpassing the Independence and Working Families Parties (both of whom lost significant vote share but narrowly qualified for automatic ballot access through 2018) but not surpassing the Conservative Party, which retained Line C with 6 percent of the vote. The Libertarians, after very narrowly missing out on the 50,000 votes needed for ballot access in 2010, missed that measure by a wide margin in 2014, earning less than 16,000 votes. The Sapient Party was a non-factor with less than 5,000 votes. Both the Women's Equality Party and Stop Common Core Party appeared on election night to have garnered just short of the 50,000 votes required to qualify, but both later surpassed the 50,000-vote threshold as additional reports came in the next day. Less than 7,000 write-in votes, none of which were indicated on election night, were cast.

If you were to exclude the NYC votes Astorino would have actually won the election by about a 1% margin. In the election all together Astorino won the vast majority of counties in upstate New York, along with Suffolk County on Long Island. Cuomo won all of New York City, all of the inner-ring suburb counties of Westchester (both Cuomo's and Astorino's home county), Rockland and Nassau, and most of the traditionally liberal upstate counties (including Tompkins, Albany, Onondaga, Broome and three in the northeastern corner of the state). Hawkins's presence on the ballot was credited by some as a spoiler effect allowing Astorino to win several upstate counties that traditionally vote Democrat, particularly Monroe County. The only county Cuomo flipped his way from 2010 to 2014 was Erie County, Hochul's home county, where Cuomo, in his capacity as governor, had promised significant state government investment in the form of the "Buffalo Billion" during his first term.

Hawkins did not win any counties, but received his highest percentage of votes (16.67%) in Tompkins County (the county seat of which is Ithaca) and 12.89% of the vote in Albany County (the county seat of which is the state capital of Albany). Hawkins also received at least 10% of the vote in Columbia, Otsego, Rensselaer, and Ulster counties. Hawkins received 4.86% of the vote in all counties, higher than his previous 2010 campaign for Governor in which he received 1.30% of the vote.