ITEM, in The EY ITEM Club, stands for Independent Treasury Economic Model. The EY ITEM Club is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. It produces quarterly economic UK forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. It was founded in 1977 and is sponsored by EY (Ernst & Young), a leading firm of business and financial advisers with some 212,000 staff in around 150 countries. ITEM is said to be independent of any political, academic or commercial bias despite corporate sponsorship. Its independence is underpinned by the untied sponsorship of EY. The club was officially named "The EY ITEM Club" in 2012.
The UK model is used by HM Treasury for its policy analysis and biannual Industry Act forecasts for the Budget. This enables ITEM to explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures. Uniquely, ITEM can test whether Government claims are consistent and can assess which forecasts are credible and which are not.
John Gaster is the EY ITEM Club's chief economist, taking over from Paul Droop. Gaster began his career at the Bank of England, and more recently was an economist and forecaster at Oxford Economic Forecasting.