Girish Mahajan (Editor)

Goodhart's law

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Goodhart's law is named after economist Charles Goodhart, which states: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." This follows from individuals trying to anticipate the effect of a policy, then taking actions which alter its outcome.

Contents

Formulation

Goodhart first advanced the posit in a 1975 paper, which later became used popularly to criticize the United Kingdom government of Margaret Thatcher for trying to conduct monetary policy on the basis of targets for broad and narrow money. However, the concept is considerably older, and closely related ideas are known under different names, including the subsequently formulated Campbell's law (1976), and Lucas critique (1976).

The law is implicit in the economic idea of rational expectations. While it originated in the context of market responses, the law has profound implications for the selection of high-level targets in organizations.

Expressions

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.

A risk model breaks down when used for regulatory purposes.

All metrics of scientific evaluation are bound to be abused. Goodhart’s law (named after the British economist who may have been the first to announce it) states that when a feature of the economy is picked as an indicator of the economy, then it inexorably ceases to function as that indicator because people start to game it.

References

Goodhart's law Wikipedia