Chine USA, la guerre programmée

Chine-USA, la guerre programmée ("China-USA, the upcoming war") is a book authored by Jean-François Susbielle, published in 2006. It explores the politics and economics of both China and the United States, claiming that their relative self-interest are becoming more conflicting, to the point that it would bring them to war.

Susbielle's main theory is that China, after a century of humiliation (from the Opium War until the end of World War II), has focused its energies and resources to gain the only status it sees for itself, which is to be the dominant power of the world. For the time being, China adapts a pragmatic low profile in international politics, since it does not yet have quite the power to fully protect its interests. China uses its formidable economic boom to gain access to the technology required to build a significant military force.

For its part, the United States is divided in two camps: the Wal-Mart/Wall Street camp and The Pentagon/Neocons camp.

For the Wal-Mart/Wall Street camp, China is a strategic ally that supplies the United States with enormous quantities of cheap consumer goods, which is beneficial to the American economy as it tends to help controlling the inflation while allowing American consumers to buy even more goods and services.

For the Pentagon/Neocons camp, China is a strategic challenge that must be contained.

In the mean time, Susbielle contends that the main strategic objective of the United States in the world is to have power over all major oil fields, so as to control China’s access to a form of energy that it desperately requires in order to maintain its economic growth. This, in his view, explains why the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. Also, the "War on terror" led by the United States would simply be a pretext to encircle China with American military bases (in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Philippines, Indonesia, etc.).

For the time being, according to Susbielle, the Wal-Mart/Wall Street lobby has the upper hand in the debate, but there will come a time, maybe as soon as 2008, but most probably around 2020, when the inconvenient of China’s economic, political and military rise will outweigh the benefits. When this happens, the Pentagon/Neocons camp will regain control of the debate and will impose its solutions.

China by then will have accumulated the sort of military power that it will use to defend its own vital interests. The ensuing tension will lead to a full fledge military war.

According to Susbielle, the current situation in Eastern Asia, with a rise in nationalism in many countries (China, Japan, Korea), accompanied by a sustained weapons race, is analogous to the situation that prevailed in Europe in the early 20th century, that eventually led to World War I. Susbielle predicts that the war against China will actually be launched by Japan.